Recent content by Arden

I'll see your Cramer and raise you my Cramer:

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating because it’s the single most important point here: Bitcoin has been the best store of value of the modern era. That’s not an opinion. That’s math. You can argue “intrinsic vs. intangible,” or debate philosophy all fucking day long- be my guest...

This is correct. According to the World Gold Council: “Around 10% of gold demand comes from industrial and technology uses (in industries including electronics, dentistry, aerospace and others).” The rest is derived from the same things that make BTC valuable: global consensus it is a store of...

Fair enough- we might have a disagreement on the definition. Or maybe I'm defining it broadly and you're defining it more narrowly. What do you mean when you say fundamentals?

Actually, you started by saying it doesn't have fundamentals, and as the argument progressed you've now settled on that it doesn't have "tangible" value (which I don't at all disagree with, but which functionally means very little).

If the UK could actually censor Bitcoin, they wouldn’t need to cap holdings, they’d just shut it down. Limits are a policy choice; censorship resistance is a property of the network.

That's an easy one: scarcity (programmed supply cap); security budget & immutable ledger; liquidity & global market depth; network affects; portability; censorship resistance etc

You’re actually making my point for me. When you break value into tangible and intangible, Bitcoin clearly falls into the intangible category, right alongside brand equity, IP, patents, network effects, software, and yes, even the premium investors pay over Apple’s book value. Most of modern...

Like Balchunas said, big BTC drawdowns tend to bring BTC haters out of the woodwork 🤷‍♂️ This is personally my 3rd time seeing, it, but I think this happened at least 5 times since 2011. You get a big drop and the naysayers come rushing out to write the obituary. Then, like clockwork, the...

All assets contain subjective value, but they differ in the structure beneath that subjectivity. Apple’s value is anchored in cash flows. Bitcoin’s is anchored in monetary properties. Picasso’s is anchored in cultural demand. Subjective pricing doesn’t make them equivalent, it just makes them...

Flobee already posted a good explanation, but I'd just add that BTC behaves more like a monetary asset than an operating business, so its fundamentals live in economics, not corporate financial metrics. Art is subjective; Bitcoin has measurable on-chain and macro drivers.

Balchunas is one of the more level-headed analysts out there. And no one is going to mistake him for a crypto bro. Here's my personal take on it: BTC isn’t falling because the fundamentals broke, it’s falling because leverage is unwinding across the entire risk complex. Once the forced...

Hey man, facts are facts, no matter who speaks them.

If it makes you feel better, it's not just the US. It's a global problem. I'll spare everyone the nothingstopsthistrain.jpeg, but here you have it.

Taking this opportunity to do housekeeping on some financial stuff, including crypto. Went back through my files and found a "crypto strategy" note I had written for myself in Nov. 2023, shortly after buying some BTC. Hilarious. For the record, the only things I ended up buying were BTC and...