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You're already seeing effects by money managers though. Apple and the other over-weights selling yesterday by firms repositioning. The arbitrage would be short the big 7, and long the equal weight. By the time the Nasdaq hits their rebalance date, the market will have done a fair bit of work for...

Specifically today? *(US) JUN ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +497K V +225KE (largest increase since Feb 2022); Mega strength in the jobs market continues. We've also had surprise data recently that all leads to high inflation pressures. Fed will have to do exactly as they have been saying for months...

Today's action finally pricing in more hikes does put IWM at risk. These are at / beyond the yield levels that were crushing the regional banks back in March. @Blazin Any stop in place on your recent IWM buy? We're at some nice support here, but I fear the Fed actions may stir banking problems...

US 2Y yield over 5% and 10Y yield over 4%. Getting spicy out there again.

Anecdotal and here in UK. Neighbors sale just fell through as the mortgage rate rise killed their seller. House is relisted -8% today.

SPCE (Virgin Galactic) had a launch for their first commercial passenger space flight. All went well. Stock down -10% :trollface:

10:00*(US) MAY PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -2.7% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: -20.8% V -20.5%E

IWM looking great for the rotation today. SPY / QQQ basically flat while IWM up 1.1%

Market confirming what I posted there. Yields up across the board by a fair bit. DXY (dollar) up. Indexes selling. Markets are pricing actual hikes to come now.

So, recap quick: We had bank stress testing yesterday AH that all passed. This morning, German CPI upside surprise, US GDP higher vs expected. Jobless claims below expected. Personal Consumption above expected. All on the back of other recent news like housing and mortgage deals shooting up...

Tell that to the TSLA and NVDA shorts that have had their faces ripped off. But yea, I get your point. It could simply be a sell the news event, or it could have a blowout quarter as stated and some big guidance. You're essentially gambling earnings now on the back of the CEO literally...

I have said this in previous posts recently, as affirmed by Blazin's buy today in IWM, is that you need breadth in markets to improve. We've had a huge run up YTD on the back of big cap tech and the AI mania. This can't go on forever and you need all sectors to pick up. If you truly believe the...

You literally had the DAL CEO yesterday saying record Q2 profits. This is 2 days before end of quarter. He's either lying, or your puts are going to get blown up. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/27/delta-ceo-says-highest-2q-earnings-ever-heres-what-the-pros-are-saying.html

I don't pay any attention whatsoever to "analyst" coverage. They are always the laggard, waiting for some catalyst with earnings, waiting for guidance, etc. I could link you a million cases where some big firm gives some PT & up/downgrade and a week later they are completely backwards on the...

On June 22nd, Lordstown Motors founder and CEO Stephen Burns has sold his entire stake in the electric-vehicle maker for $3.85 mil Today on June 27th the company filed for bankruptcy. Got to love being the first out the door with the golden parachute.

Seems TradingView is offering discounts on charts again. Can't say enough great things about these. Black Friday has the best offers, but here's a darn good deal too.

@Blazin @Sanrith Descartes Volatility gauges have been pretty fucked since 0DTE popularity. But can either of you explain wtf is happening with VXX today vs VIX? As of writing, VIX is up 5% and VXX is down 2% on the day.

What, I cant repay my USD debts in monopoly money?

VIX in the 12s. Not seen since pre-covid. Fairly shocking considering the macro backdrop. Then again, 0DTEs have fucked the metric.

It had news. I talked about it before. News today was Rivian adopting the Tesla charge standard and making an agreement to use their Supercharger network. This is on the back of both Ford and GM capitulating as well. You've basically turned Tesla into a service provider now for EV charging...

Yea, there's been grumblings of the sub-prime auto loans pre-dating covid. Shit is just a lot worse now. There's a myriad of factors at play.

More ugly macro news: More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars Loans hit 125% of vehicle value in first quarter: TransUnion The trend may foreshadow higher delinquencies, study finds...

Post-Covid failed businesses / combined with a massive amount of work from home / migration out of cities. Offices are massively understaffed and the demand has absolutely crashed in big cities like NY. Those properties are very very expensive. No one wants to touch it, combined with massive...

This shouldn't be new news. Google search "commercial real estate risk" and you will be flooded with news results for months and warnings from top finance heads.

This is a finance world thing. I had a couple interviews with Goldman Sachs London for a VP position, however, it had nothing to do with C suite.

Yo! Got any hot tips!?

Fuck me..

SPCE up 50% after hours. Catalyst: Virgin Galactic says its first space-tourism flight will take place this month

Then you get after hours data releases like this: (US) Fed releases factors affecting reserve balances (H.4.1): Discount window borrowing rose to $3.62B v $3.20B w/w; Banks have borrowed $102B v $100.2B w/w from new BTFP facility [6th week of consecutive increase] 6th straight week of bank...

Retail would likely chase shit like NVDA. The smart money will be rotating from tech into other lagging sectors like small and mid caps (IWM). If the rotation dies, we get more than a pullback. I just dont see it yet. Sentiment is far too bullish and pullback dips have been aggressively bought...

Yep, anyone paying attention today has watched VIX climb with markets all day. Simply put, someone is hedging this market with 30D+ options activity. We are massively due for a pullback, but can't see any big dramas unfolding until Q2 earnings (aside from a macro surprise). Q2 earnings will need...

I use the 20D EMA as a metric for how stretched out we are, and by any measure we are at extreme overbought levels here. But, we were also extremely overbought 10+% ago on many stocks too. There is unbelievable demand for every minor dip in these markets.

Think I found the solution to your divorce problem.

In fairness, every other central bank is behind the US. We started raising first, they've all been playing catch-up. More importantly from the ECB notes was: Growth revisions down for 23 & 24 Inflation guides up for 23, 24, & 25

If it came to that worst case scenario, wouldn't the wife want her half of the house equity anyway? Can't navigate that without a re-mortgage unless you have the cash on hand to buy her part out.

Speaking of NVDA AI mania: Bullish!?

I am not at all disagreeing. Just countering what Kirun was mentioning with housing. It's going to take a lot more to crash that mess, specifically mass layoffs. Markets, I do agree somewhat. The first change in trend was the bank blowups, which basically have everyone betting that would cease...

I dont see the big housing crash that some are talking about. This isnt 2008. You have so many people sitting on piles of equity in their homes that appreciated in the last 2 years, so basically no one is at risk of being underwater. Then you have all of the people that locked into a 3%...