When's the last time a 1-3 team ended up making playoffs
Not mine….but ya it’s possible
An Analysis of the History of 1-3 Teams and their Playoff Chances (long post warning)
We've all heard the stat regarding 0-2, 0-3 starts and how they correlate to playoff appearances. 12% chance at 0-2, only 3 teams have done it from 0-3 since 1990, etc. I decided to look at those 0-3 teams, narrowing the search to since 2002, when the current divisional alignment was put in place, and see how they fared in their next games, and what the eventual outcome was of their seasons. Some of those teams, like the Ravens, won their 4th game to get to 1-3, and I wanted to see how those teams fared as well. Here are the results:
Indeed, as has been stated by many media outlets, no 0-3 team has made the playoffs since 1998, which means none of the 64 teams since 2002 has either. On average, these teams ended up with a record of 4.6-11.4, or about 5-11. Their record in the next three games was hugely important in determining how well their season ended as well. Those that lost their next three to fall to 0-6 (19 teams) ended up with an average record of 3.3-12.7, or about 3-13, while those that won 2 of their next 3 to improve to 2-4 (also 19 teams) averaged a 5.8-10.2, or 6-10 record. Only one team, the 2011 Chiefs, managed to win their next 3 and even up their record at 3-3, and they ended the season with a 7-9 record. Only the 2004 Bills (who went 1-2 in their second 3 games to get to 1-5 at Week 6) ended the season with a winning record at 9-7.
But 0-3 is history right? It doesn't matter that we were 0-3, the only thing that matters is that we're 1-3 now, and we're in the same position as a team that started the season 1-0 and dropped its next 3. So how did the teams that started 1-3 (by any means) fare in their subsequent 3 games, and their eventual seasons?
Of the 64 0-3 teams, 20 won (as the Ravens did) their 4th game to improve to 1-3. None of these teams made the playoffs. However, of the 89 teams that have started 1-3 since 2002, 11 teams actually have made it, or about 12%. Basically, being 1-3 is about as good (or bad) as being 0-2 when it comes to your odds of making the playoffs.