2021 NFL Offseason: QB Carousel Imminent -- Retirement Boogaloo

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Merrith

Golden Baronet of the Realm
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So much of baseball comes down to interaction between pitcher and hitter, as well. Hockey is another sport where analytics are starting to scratch the surface, but they're still not able to take in the whole picture yet. Shot quality in hockey is such a slippery thing to measure accurately.
 

Ambiturner

Ssraeszha Raider
16,043
19,530
Baseball you have 162+ games a year to pull numbers from, hockey/basketball 82+. NFL you only have 16+. Factor that in with the 22 players involved in every single play and yeah it's tough to nail it down. I mean of course you generally know what to expect from players but there's just so much variance that can happen in such a small number of games.

On top of that you only have an average of 12ish possessions per game in the NFL vs over 100 with basketball and probably similar for hockey
 
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Kaines

Potato Supreme
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On top of that you only have an average of 12ish possessions per game in the NFL vs over 100 with basketball and probably similar for hockey
Comparing possessions from football to basketball isn't exactly 1 to 1 as the average possession in football has multiple plays run. A basketball possession usually has one maybe two if you get an offensive rebound early in the shot clock.
 

DickTrickle

Definitely NOT Furor Planedefiler
13,407
15,568
With all the formations and substitutions, it's really a lot of noisy data to try and extract meaningful information from.

People like to talk about clutch teams but almost all those teams that win the one score games one season regress the next, even if the team is largely the same.

Still, the nature of a football season and playoffs versus basketball or baseball is one reason why I like it. It only takes a few games to make a huge difference and in the playoffs it's much more wide open than a seven game series.
 
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Merrith

Golden Baronet of the Realm
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With all the formations and substitutions, it's really a lot of noisy data to try and extract meaningful information from.

People like to talk about clutch teams but almost all those teams that win the one score games one season regress the next, even if the team is largely the same.

Still, the nature of a football season and playoffs versus basketball or baseball is one reason why I like it. It only takes a few games to make a huge difference and in the playoffs it's much more wide open than a seven game series.

Calais Campbell made that point recently about one and done versus 7 game series, saying it was harder to win a Super Bowl than an NBA title because of it. Makes sense at least from that perspective. In basketball better team is almost always going to win out over 7 games.

There are aspects to series I like more than 1 and done, though. You get to a Game 7 in the NHL, and that series on the whole is going to have been better than any one NFL playoff game 99% of the time.
 

Sterling

El Presidente
13,092
8,067
Snaps would be a better way to break down football. But as people have been saying there's just a lot more variance to situations in football compared to other sports. Down and distance, field position, formation, etc. It's not to say that there aren't better stats now than there used to be, it's just not remotely on the same level of hoops even let alone baseball.
 
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Brahma

Obi-Bro Kenobi-X
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Analytics in baseball works well now because it's been refined. Hoops is getting better. Football analytics are kind of all over the place and not nearly as predictive.

Plus there are way too many outside variables. How good others are at their positions being the main culprit IMO.
 
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BrutulTM

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun.
<Silver Donator>
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90% of baseball is 1 pitcher vs. 1 batter at a time. Much less complex game. Football also has more injuries. Injury can throw a wrench into any sport, but there's just more of them in football.
 
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Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Imagine how different the Super Bowl would have been if the Chiefs had an offensive line in front of Mahomes instead of a bunch of turnstiles.
 
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Kaines

Potato Supreme
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Imagine how different the Super Bowl would have been if the Chiefs had an offensive line in front of Mahomes instead of a bunch of turnstiles.
Eh that's like saying "Imagine how great the Cowboys would gave been if Jerry would have had a heartattack in the locker room after the Super Bowl in 94 and never fired Jimmy"
 

Kirun

Buzzfeed Editor
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Eh that's like saying "Imagine how great the Cowboys would gave been if Jerry would have had a heartattack in the locker room after the Super Bowl in 94 and never fired Jimmy"
Except Jimmy didn't do shit with Marino in Miami and kept getting blown out in the divisional rounds. I still maintain that Haley was far more responsible for that run than Jimmy ever was.
 

Kaines

Potato Supreme
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Except Jimmy didn't do shit with Marino in Miami and kept getting blown out in the divisional rounds. I still maintain that Haley was far more responsible for that run than Jimmy ever was.
I think Aikman, Irvin, Smith, Woodson and the rest were pretty big reasons as well that didn't go to Miami either. Saying it was one guy is completely retarded. However after Jimmy left, the draft classes got REALLY bad for awhile. Haley wasn't in the war room on draft day.
 

Merrith

Golden Baronet of the Realm
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Eh that's like saying "Imagine how great the Cowboys would gave been if Jerry would have had a heartattack in the locker room after the Super Bowl in 94 and never fired Jimmy"

I don't know if this is quite the same when KC mostly just needed healthy starters. Down 4 starters out of 5 on the OL and having at least a backup or two out due to injury/opt out made it even worse.

Also Hill and Kelce suddenly forgetting how to catch the ball in the biggest game of the year.
 

Gavinmad

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Eh that's like saying "Imagine how great the Cowboys would gave been if Jerry would have had a heartattack in the locker room after the Super Bowl in 94 and never fired Jimmy"
Weren't most of their starters injured? That's a lot different from having a retarded owner.
 
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Sterling

El Presidente
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I think Aikman, Irvin, Smith, Woodson and the rest were pretty big reasons as well that didn't go to Miami either. Saying it was one guy is completely retarded. However after Jimmy left, the draft classes got REALLY bad for awhile. Haley wasn't in the war room on draft day.
He did well in Miami considering by that point Marino was on robot knees and a goat achilles and he didn't have a Hershel Walker trade to stockpile talent with. 8-8 his first season and made the playoffs the 3 following seasons winning 2 playoff games. He built a great defense that kept Wannstedt employed far too long before the coaching shitshow carousel started.
 
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