A brain teasing probability puzzle

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A

a_skeleton_03

<Banned>
29,948
29,763
Fawe_sl said:
I'm still trying to figure out why Araysar thinks round 1 has no impact on round 2.
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Because nothing shuffles between round 1 and 2. Your odds at the beginning are your odds at the end.

You RRP'ed him for not agreeing on an extremely debatable area? You are kidding right Tuco?

Fix my poll then please.
 
DiddleySquat

DiddleySquat

Bronze Knight of the Realm
458
17
a_skeleton_03_sl said:
Because nothing shuffles between round 1 and 2. Your odds at the beginning are your odds at the end.

You RRP'ed him for not agreeing on an extremely debatable area? You are kidding right Tuco?

Fix my poll then please.
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There is nothing 'extremely debatable' about the Monty Hall problem. The correct strategy is to always switch your pick. Several links to explanations have been provided.

Yes it's a bit counter intuitive, yes people's explanation aren't always clearing things up, but it's pure math and zero mental trickery.
 
F

felldoh

Golden Knight of the Realm
107
0
It's not 'extremely debatable', its statistical fact. Banning him though, is as retarded as Araysar's position in this thread.
 
Daezuel

Daezuel

Potato del Grande
23,845
51,810
If we remove one of three mods and let you have a choice between the remaining two what is the likelihood of Araysar still being RRP'ed?
 
Fury

Fury

Silver Knight of the Realm
499
25
I haven't had this much fun reading a thread since the "Vicoden, Gigarettes, and Fake Tits" thread. Pure awesome!
 
drmandolin

drmandolin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
2,137
5,902
Consuming the last 14 pages as quickly as we had to in order to keep up, totally reminded me of:

rrr_img_43408.jpg
 
T

The Master

Bronze Squire
2,084
2
supertouch_sl said:
To be fair to Araysar, haven't quite a few experts disputed this issue?
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No. A number of laymen have disputed it as far back as 1975, they were arguing with a professor at Berkley. Would you care to guess who was right? There is no one with a degree in stats, at any level, who disputes the answer.

Curiously, and this is new to me, Monty Hall apparently wrote to Selvin with his own explanation. Monty Hall got it right, saying something along the lines of "Eliminating a box gives the contestant the feeling that the odds are now 50/50, even though they remain the same for his first choice, 1/3." The fact that Monty Hall knew the right answer makes me happy.
 
Tuco

Tuco

I got Tuco'd!
<Gold Donor>
47,941
82,660
Eomer_sl said:
It's actually pretty similar to the plane/treadmill thing. It's all about how it's worded, and the assumptions people make about the rules.
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Eh, I disagree. I doubt you could word it differently than

original_sl said:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
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And get a much different response from a group of people. It's one of those problems where the more words you put into the problem to direct them to the right answer the more complicated you make it.
 
S

supertouch_sl

shitlord
1,858
3
The Master_sl said:
No. A number of laymen have disputed it as far back as 1975, they were arguing with a professor at Berkley. Would you care to guess who was right? There is no one with a degree in stats, at any level, who disputes the answer.

Curiously, and this is new to me, Monty Hall apparently wrote to Selvin with his own explanation. Monty Hall got it right, saying something along the lines of "Eliminating a box gives the contestant the feeling that the odds are now 50/50, even though they remain the same for his first choice, 1/3." The fact that Monty Hall knew the right answer makes me happy.
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According to some of the articles linked in this thread, the people debating Savant are mathematicians and professors.
 
Tuco

Tuco

I got Tuco'd!
<Gold Donor>
47,941
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supertouch_sl said:
According to some of the articles linked in this thread, the people debating Savant are mathematicians and professors.
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Find me a single mathematician who currently disputes it. Not "Here's a bunch of assholes who got it wrong a decade ago and later probably apologized' but today.

None the less we don't need to appeal to authority here. It's a very simple stats problem.
 
A

a_skeleton_03

<Banned>
29,948
29,763
The Master_sl said:
No. A number of laymen have disputed it as far back as 1975, they were arguing with a professor at Berkley. Would you care to guess who was right? There is no one with a degree in stats, at any level, who disputes the answer.

Curiously, and this is new to me, Monty Hall apparently wrote to Selvin with his own explanation. Monty Hall got it right, saying something along the lines of "Eliminating a box gives the contestant the feeling that the odds are now 50/50, even though they remain the same for his first choice, 1/3." The fact that Monty Hall knew the right answer makes me happy.
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This is the crux and why it's debatable.

People think the odds change as in the boxes are shuffled but they are not.

This makes the entire scenario debatable.

Fix my poll and delete the old one Tuco.
 
T

The Master

Bronze Squire
2,084
2
I'll make you the offer I made Ara. Find someone with a PhD in stats who disagrees. If you want to make an appeal to authority argument, find an authority.
 
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