A brain teasing probability puzzle

Ravishing · Sep 13, 2013

Araysar_sl said:
and the outcome at the beginning of R2 is ALWAYS THE SAME.

wat.

Araysar · Sep 13, 2013

Fawe_sl said:
This scenario is not the same. You are not removing any options from the Host prior to him discarding a door. That is a key element to the equation.

You dont need to when the Host's one option is always available and he always selects it. You're not depriving or giving him anything. His choice is always available, always the same and always pre-determined.

Araysar · Sep 13, 2013

Fawe_sl said:
wat.

2 doors. One has a car. One has a goat.

There is never a possibility in R2 where both doors available for your selection have a goat. One will ALWAYS have a car. One will ALWAYS have a GOAT. And one will always be opened by the host before R2 and be shown to be a goat door.

ALWAYS.

Ravishing · Sep 13, 2013

Araysar_sl said:
You dont need to when the Host's one option is always available and he always selects it. You're not depriving or giving him anything. His choice is always available, always the same and always pre-determined.

He doesn't have 1 option, there are 2 options (2 doors).

Ravishing · Sep 13, 2013

Araysar_sl said:
There is never a possibility in R2 where both doors available for your selection have a goat. One will ALWAYS have a car. One will ALWAYS have a GOAT. And one will always be opened by the host before R2 and be shown to be a goat door.

ALWAYS.

But the difference is whether you are sitting on the car door or if the host is. Thus the outcome is NEVER ALWAYS the same. There are 2 possible outcomes.

Araysar · Sep 13, 2013

Siddar_sl said:
Do you agree you have a 33% chance of picking the right box in first round?

Depends. Can I win anything in 1st round? Oh right, I can't. So in reality my option of winning anything in 1st round is 0/100. If I make a choice in Round 1 and then choose not to participate in Round 2, did I win anything?

Siddar_sl said:
If you assign other two box's to Host then Hosts chance of having the right box is 66%.

If host eliminates a incorrect box 100% of the time at end of the first round that shifts chance of hosts single remaining box to being the right box to 66%.

Once you accept the above you can ignore the 50/50 set up in second round and go for the box you know has a 66% of being the right one.

The rest of this is nonsense predicated on the faulty assumption that you can win in round 1. your odds of winning in round 1 are 0/100. This is The Pledge.

Araysar · Sep 13, 2013

Fawe_sl said:
He doesn't have 1 option, there are 2 options (2 doors).

Oh so the host can choose anything else but a goat door?

JFC.

here are 2 quarters. you can select only one. they are identical in every way.

Do you really have 2 choices when you end up with exact same thing regardless of what you "choose"?

Siddar · Sep 13, 2013

Araysar_sl said:
Wrong.

You dont keep your choice. You are offered the same choice again.

How about this.

In 1st round, host shows you 3 doors and does NOT make you choose anything, you are simply an observer.
Then he opens one of the doors, a goat door always
Then he asks you to select from the other 2 doors.

How is this scenario is any different from you selecting a door in 1st round vs. being a passive observer?

You guys are perfect sheep for a cult brainwashing.

In your set up you have a 50% chance of picking a Goat while in the original set up chances of you picking a goat are 66%.

Araysar · Sep 13, 2013

Fawe_sl said:
But the difference is whether you are sitting on the car door or if the host is. Thus the outcome is NEVER ALWAYS the same. There are 2 possible outcomes.

Always the same, brah.

You're being tricked by The Turn.

Araysar · Sep 13, 2013

Siddar_sl said:
In your set up you have a 50% chance of picking a Goat while in the original set up chances of you picking a goat are 66%.

In the original, your first choice means nothing because your first choice is always invalidated when the host opens a goat door and asks you to make a choice again, thus reducing your choice to a 50/50 proposition.

The 1st round doesnt matter at all, it is pure illusion. This is the Pledge.

Ravishing · Sep 13, 2013

Araysar_sl said:
Oh so the host can choose anything else but a goat door?
JFC.

If you choose a car door, the host has 2 goat doors to choose from.
If you choose a goat, he still has 2 doors but chooses the one with a goat behind it.
Just because he chooses a goat doesn't mean there aren't 2 variables involved.

Siddar · Sep 13, 2013

Araysar_sl said:
Depends. Can I win anything in 1st round? Oh right, I can't. So in reality my option of winning anything in 1st round is 0/100. If I make a choice in Round 1 and then choose not to participate in Round 2, did I win anything?

The rest of this is nonsense predicated on the faulty assumption that you can win in round 1. your odds of winning in round 1 are 0/100. This is The Pledge.

No its based on the odds of you having picked the right box in round one. You can't win tell the end of round two but what happened in round one are still impacting the odds in round two.

Ravishing · Sep 13, 2013

Araysar_sl said:
Always the same, brah.

You're being tricked by The Turn.

The Prestige was a good movie but we're not talking about magic tricks here.

It is not the same.

Siddar · Sep 13, 2013

Araysar_sl said:
In the original, your first choice means nothing because your first choice is always invalidated when the host opens a goat door and asks you to make a choice again, thus reducing your choice to a 50/50 proposition.

The 1st round doesnt matter at all, it is pure illusion. This is the Pledge.

In the original your choice has a 33% chance of being the correct Box. Do you disagree?

Zuuljin · Sep 13, 2013

Its the probability of a car being behind a door, not the probability that you will win in round 1. Understand the difference and perhaps it will make more sense. Yes in round 2 you only have 2 choices, so 50/50, but whatsbehindthe doors is NOT 50/50. Again, understand the difference between number of choices available, and the chance that a particular item is behind the door. They are not the same.

Araysar · Sep 13, 2013

man, you guys are adults that still fall for the quarter behind your ear trick, arent ya?

beautiful example of mathematical misdirection. The illusion of choice where there is none.

If I ever start a cult, I will make you my lieutenants.

Araysar · Sep 13, 2013

Siddar_sl said:
In the original your choice has a 33% chance of being the correct Box. Do you disagree?

In the original (aka 1st round) your choice is 0/100

your round 1 choice means nothing, and set of options offered to you at the beginning of 2nd round is always the same regardless of what you selected.

it is a sleight of hand, an illusion of choice.

Ravishing · Sep 13, 2013

He's abandoned reason. /thread.

Araysar · Sep 13, 2013

Fawe_sl said:
The Prestige was a good movie but we're not talking about magic tricks here.

It is not the same.

Its exactly the same.

Round 1 is the Pledge
Round 2 is the Turn
The proclamation of 66/33 is the Prestige.

Dont be upset because you're not catching on to the sleight of hand.

Tuco · Sep 13, 2013

One sure sign of being confused is making shit more complicated than it is.

A brain teasing probability puzzle

Uninspiring Title

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Uninspiring Title

Uninspiring Title

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Bronze Baronet of the Realm

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Uninspiring Title

Bronze Baronet of the Realm

Uninspiring Title

Bronze Baronet of the Realm

Bronze Knight of the Realm

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Uninspiring Title

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

I got Tuco'd!