Are we fucked as a species?

Tuco said:

Are we fucked? Ultimately yes, by the heat death of the universe.

Till then? I'm optimistic.

This isn't something that I spend a lot of time thinking about, and isn't at all rational, but I like to think that we're part of a system created by a sentient prime mover of some kind that wants to see what kind of shenanigans we come up with. So we've got an ideal universe with all kinds of technical possibilities enabled by physical properties (chemistry, nuclear, +++).

So when I hear about problems like AI convergence, grey goo, nuclear wasteland, resource depletion, global warming, antibiotic resistant diseases etc etc I casually disregard it. It's not that I think we don't have to worry, it's that I think we'll be able to overcome anything put in front of us.

Again, it's not a rational belief, but when we're talking about unforeseen issues like these, what is? Till then I'm doing my part by making killer robots.

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Interesting. But also a hint of 'no thought for tomorrow'ish', or a variation of it - we'll be taken care of / can overcome it. Makes me wonder if Tuco has a longer tolerance for when a problem is a problem, and if/when it should be adressed. I donno, I've lost patients to MRSA. I'd like it to be solved and practiced right about years back. What does hodj think abut creationism, prime movers and such?

Nuttin said:

In the past, like in the 1800 or so, people had a vision of how the world would look now 2018 or at least in 2000 as that was a magic number, in the year 2200 I am guessing that not many of us are left, the way we as a species, are progressing, it doesn't look particular good. I for one think we are fucked.

I

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I think it depends a lot on when we all decide we are done with capitalism and global capitalists. Its absolutely obliterating East Asia.

That's just a blown up petri dish of what is actually happening on a smaller scale for the last 100 years in America. Look at Australia, wages are soaring for what would be considered "menial jobs", while the US professional salaries have been stagnant since 1999 and in steady decline-- as competition for jobs increases.

The average US household is missing on average 21,000 dollars in annual household income from 1999 forward. Its now almost 2020 and we aren't seeing that 20,000 USD average that's been missing for the last two decades. We've been passed up by other countries benefiting off of us. That's a separate thread though, but it can't be repeated enough. We are not seeing household income recover from the 1990's. Household income is the metric to use because married people tend to try harder, employ better, and work more.

I don't know what year we can safely dispense of the profit motive, but we are getting very close once we have the singularity (perhaps between 100-200 years, they say perhaps as early has 50 years, but I very strongly doubt that) and severe exploitation is no longer required as a means of survival.

Phazael said:

Yeah the fact is we just crank out fuck trophies to the limit of the available productivity, in most cases.

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Our large population and continued (although slowing) growth is a feature, not a bug. Its the best indicator of a successful species, by definition. Its evidence we're doing great, not something to be worried about.

Things are better now than they have ever been, and are so good we are inventing shit to worry over because we have a psychological need to deal with problems but have very few real problems left.

Its hard to imagine us being farther away from "fucked as a species" than our current condition. Theres like 7 billion of us. We're doing awesome.

jayrebb said:

I think it depends a lot on when we all decide we are done with capitalism and global capitalists. Its absolutely obliterating East Asia.

That's just a blown up petri dish of what is actually happening on a smaller scale for the last 100 years in America. Look at Australia, wages are soaring for what would be considered "menial jobs", while the US professional salaries have been stagnant since 1999 and in steady decline-- as competition for jobs increases.

The average US household is missing on average 21,000 dollars in annual household income from 1999 forward. Its now almost 2020 and we aren't seeing that 20,000 USD average that's been missing for the last two decades. We've been passed up by other countries benefiting off of us. That's a separate thread though, but it can't be repeated enough. We are not seeing household income recover from the 1990's. Household income is the metric to use because married people tend to try harder, employ better, and work more.

I don't know what year we can safely dispense of the profit motive, but we are getting very close once we have the singularity (perhaps between 100-200 years, they say perhaps as early has 50 years, but I very strongly doubt that) and severe exploitation is no longer required as a means of survival.

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LOL at someone taking your 20K. Australia is a shithole with no people, and impossible immigration laws and border patrol (so hangover tv has taught us). Can't compare to them when you're mainland with the rest of the Americas.

Barring some monumental leap forward in energy production+storage (the storage part being more important) and a following evolution in the way that we treat each other, then yes, as a species, we will burn through our time on the planet and eventually drive ourselves to extinction via pollution, war, or destruction of natural resources.

Phazael said:

Yes and no. It is possible for an aggressive and successful species to choke itself out over time. We certainly qualify as both. I mean, Christ imagine what happens in Africa once we stop dumping dumptrucks full of food there. And if you think the west is immune to that mentality, then look no further than the last couple floods when some ghetto rats could not get hot pockets from the local grocer. We don't have a lot of fault tolerance on our logistics, as a society. We can prop up one metropolitan area, but two or three cities get fucked out of their availability to get fed and watch what happens. I mean, Egypt literally got toppled because the price of bread went up 20% and those people are somewhat used to hardship, comparatively.

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I am going to challenge your point, keep in mind we're talking about prospering as a species.

When you say "last couple floods", I can't find specific data. Can we talk about hurricane Maria hitting Puerto Rico? Major damage to infrastructure and logistical systems happened in an area poorer than any US state. There was no massive loss of life, under 0.2% of the population died even with the highest estimates. The rest of the USA has a much better infrastructure.

I don't know what you mean with Egypt being toppled. Are you talking about the recent crisis? There are still a lot of people alive in Cairo. If you have better examples I'm unaware of please share them.

I'm not saying that wars are impossible in the future but I think that they are less likely every year. We have lived under the possibility of a massive nuclear war for over 60 years and during that time, we've had the most peace and prosperity ever.

mcdj22 said:

I didn’t say anything about not being able to imagine a future economy. Entire industries will vacate their workers in favor of automation so quickly, there will be many jobless with no prospects. That will be interesting to see how it plays out.

The automotive industry and anything related will be a fraction of what it is now in 15 years. Millions of job seekers. No more car washes, gas stations, drivers, car dealers, service centers, mechanics, window tint shops, car detailers, tire centers, pizza and Chinese food delivery drivers...all that money ends up with a few corporations. Fast food also. And forget it when they make a robot that can cook for you. Restaurants are dead.

The future is fucking robocop, with bars, liquor stores, and vape lounges the only thing left to do in society.

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Sorry, you're just wrong about this. There has never been a time that more jobs have been replaced with automation than right now, at this very moment. Guess what? There are more job openings than there are workers available to fill them. This will continue to be the case.

mcdj22 said:

Companies aren’t looking to hire people that have no experience or qualifications, so what good is it if there are available jobs for millions of low skill workers who can’t get them?

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Are you claiming there are no entry level positions available?

Edit to say, even if there are not how does this finish us as a species? I think it's never been easier to gain knowledge and skills than it is right now.

Had similar conversation with guy that worked for me at one time, younger than me. About the jobs going away when technology takes them over. I told him you better adapt and get ahead of it. He asked about me and I told him I appeal to those who have shit jobody knows how to use/work on anymore. You're probably too young for that. The company I "inherited" has more people now than it did 40 years ago even tho there's a lot more tech involved in the industry. But there's a hell of a lot fewer companies that do the same thing in town than there were 40 years ago. Used to could make a living with a shop of 4 guys, now it requires a shop of 100 guys with umpteen certifications and state of the art CNC equipment and such. End product hasn't changed and I'm not sure the man hours per product has improved a whole lot. A lot of the work I'm around in the field was produced 40 years or more ago (more when you get there and it was riveted steel, not welded) and it's still going strong lol. I'm sure we put the riveters out of business probably 70 or more years ago.

Of course now a shop of 50 guys will have a dozen guys or more tracking stuff, ordering stuff, project managing, filling out governmental paperwork. When I got into this 30+ years ago a shop of 50 had 45 guys working in the shop, an owner, a purchasing agent, an estimator, a flunkie (who did odds and ends from pick up stuff to order lunch), and a secretary to answer the phone and type up stuff. End product hasn't changed.

But take the other industry I was associated with, forestry and logging. Used to have umpteen guys running a saw, and 1 guy with a skidder, and 1 guy with a loader, and the truck drivers. Now the umpteen guys with a saw are replaced with 1 guy driving a feller buncher, guy operating the loader, and the truck drivers. At least in the south the only chain saw on site will be in the cab of the loader to trim a tree loaded already that is too long or dragging the ground.

Times change. We'll eventually transition to something else a million people will need to support.