Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

swayze22 · May 21, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
You dont think algos are trading crypto?

Well regardless if they are or not - which country or government or celebrity is going to tweet today?

The market isn't mature enough in my opinion to wholly rely on charts for guidance. They are a tool sure.

But my point is I don't think you will find May 12th or May 19th signals on a chart.

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2021

LachiusTZ said:
I don't think equities people really appreciate the speed of the crypto market.

A week in this shit is like a year in stocks.

But yeah, the algos are creating these huge swings, to bleed off profit and buy back in.

And I'm sure some whales were selling to, and a ton of retail

1.7 mil BTC changed hands in the last 24 hours. Im not sure that "speed" is something that the equities folks will have a problem grasping. Now I assume this is aggregating all the fractional trades into round whole units so the number of pure trades will be significantly higher. I wouldn't underestimate how sharp some of the folks who write HFT algos are.

Tmac · May 21, 2021

swayze22 said:
Well regardless if they are or not - which country or government or celebrity is going to tweet today?

The market isn't mature enough in my opinion to wholly rely on charts for guidance. They are a tool sure.

But my point is I don't think you will find May 12th or May 19th signals on a chart.

Charts are a map. They can show you entries, exits, and lines of support. If you listen to them they’ll help you make money and prevent you from losing money.

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2021

swayze22 said:
Well regardless if they are or not - which country or government or celebrity is going to tweet today?

The market isn't mature enough in my opinion to wholly rely on charts for guidance. They are a tool sure.

But my point is I don't think you will find May 12th or May 19th signals on a chart.

And yet BTC bounced and is currently holding right at the 200-DMA. Pure coincidence I am sure.

LachiusTZ · May 21, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
1.7 mil BTC changed hands in the last 24 hours. Im not sure that "speed" is something that the equities folks will have a problem grasping. Now I assume this is aggregating all the fractional trades into round whole units so the number of pure trades will be significantly higher. I wouldn't underestimate how sharp some of the folks who write HFT algos are.

View attachment 354805

Speed was the wrong word, the rate at which the market moves. The rate time seems to move. Doesn't matter to the algos, but does people

During that massive crash, near the bottom, I was still up 20% or something disgusting for the month.

That's completely foreign to equities people.

And the people writing the algos don't matter, they don't understand how they work either. That crap is all black box computing.

The hft algos are making piles of money tho, volatility is their friend

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2021

LachiusTZ said:
And the people writing the algos don't matter, they don't understand how they work either.

The double PHDs in Math and Computer Science dont understand how the algos they write work?

swayze22 · May 21, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
And yet BTC bounced and is currently holding right at the 200-DMA. Pure coincidence I am sure.

OK - what did your charts say a week and a half ago and how much money did you make when everyone else ate it? Did you exit all your positions in BTC and ETH prior to Elon tweeting? What about before 8am EST on the 19th?

I'm not disputing charts or having more information to make the "best" decision. I'm simply saying there are enough outlier events that the weight I put on them in anything other than the immediate term is far less than in equities. I don't think that's unreasonable.

LachiusTZ · May 21, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
The double PHDs in Math and Computer Science dont understand how the algos they write work?

According to those same people that describe machine learning, pretty much.

And from what I understand, that's what's been running HFT for a while now.

Do you have any person able to explain exactly what the computers are doing when processing black box computations?

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2021

swayze22 said:
OK - what did your charts say a week and a half ago and how much money did you make when everyone else ate it? Did you exit all your positions in BTC and ETH prior to Elon tweeting? What about before 8am EST on the 19th?

I'm not disputing charts or having more information to make the "best" decision. I'm simply saying there are enough outlier events that the weight I put on them in anything other than the immediate term is far less than in equities. I don't think that's unreasonable.

I didnt make or lose shit because as I said I dont trade in the crypto pool. You think non-quantifiable externalities don't exist in the equities market? I was just trying to help some folks here make money. I truly don't have a horse in this race so I could give a shit personally whether BTC flies or crashes. I'll head back to my dusty old Boomer equities thread. Good luck to you.

swayze22 · May 21, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
I didnt make or lose shit because as I said I dont trade in the crypto pool. You think non-quantifiable externalities don't exist in the equities market? I was just trying to help some folks here make money. I truly don't have a horse in this race so I could give a shit personally whether BTC flies or crashes. I'll head back to my dusty old Boomer equities thread. Good luck to you.

Don't get mad. All I said was "i dunno man". I think you are appreciated around here (and there).

My point is simply there is a lot of "shit" for lack of a better word going on in crypto market, the market is a baby and it moves with the wind. The point of me questioning you is purely for discussion and for myself & or others to either learn something or take away another point of view. I try to leave my pride at the door.

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2021

swayze22 said:
Don't get mad. All I said was "i dunno man". I think you are appreciated around here (and there).

My point is simply there is a lot of "shit" for lack of a better word going on in crypto market, the market is a baby and it moves with the wind. The point of me questioning you is purely for discussion and for me & or others to either learn something or take away another point of view. I try to leave my pride at the door.

That is the entire point of data driven trading. Since you can't quantify macro externalities (like Biden wanting to track and tax Crypto) you use what you can quantify (things like moving averages) because whether they are "real" factors or not, as long as algos are written to trade off them and human traders use them to trade off them, then their value as a trading tool is "real". Until it isnt. Sort of like the value of BTC itself. It has unquantifiable value because people believe it does. Until it doesnt.

LachiusTZ · May 21, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
That is the entire point of data driven trading. Since you can't quantify macro externalities (like Biden wanting to track and tax Crypto) you use what you can quantify (things like moving averages) because whether they are "real" factors or not, as long as algos are written to trade off them and human traders use them to trade off them, then their value as a trading tool is "real". Until it isnt. Sort of like the value of BTC itself. It has unquantifiable value because people believe it does. Until it doesnt.

I think it's more correct to say the algos learn to trade off them, not that they are written to trade off them.

But maybe I'm wrong and HFT don't use all the new fancy shiny tech.

Either way, stick around. We need at least one person that isn't a crypto bull

wormie · May 21, 2021

Pretty sure machine learning isn’t used in HFT, it’s too slow.

No one has double PhDs in both math and CS.

And a chunk of activity in crypto is money laundering and those people don’t give a shit about support levels.

swayze22 · May 21, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
That is the entire point of data driven trading. Since you can't quantify macro externalities (like Biden wanting to track and tax Crypto) you use what you can quantify (things like moving averages) because whether they are "real" factors or not, as long as algos are written to trade off them and human traders use them to trade off them, then their value as a trading tool is "real". Until it isnt. Sort of like the value of BTC itself. It has unquantifiable value because people believe it does. Until it doesnt.

Sure. And the usage of that for any given individual depends on if you are a "trader" or an "investor" per se and what time horizons you are working with, which would differ for all of us.

I work in an actuarial based field. I take the results of the models we run and I use them as part of my decision making, hence why I said they are a tool. And at the same time I can recognize (like in this market) that even the best data & model may not be capturing all of the variables that would lead to the most accurate prediction or outcome.

I don't even think we are disagreeing about anything, i'm just not betting the farm on what a model says about crypto in the current environment. (which I don't think you were implying)

who knows

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2021

wormie said:
No one has double PhDs in both math and CS.

These classrooms must be mighty empty then.

Joint Math/CS PhD - Department of Computer Science

In Winter 2018, the Department of Mathematics and the Department of Computer Science launched a joint program through which participating students can earn the degree “Ph. D. in Mathematics and Computer Science.” The basic structure is that students must gain admission to both PhD programs and...

computerscience.uchicago.edu

wormie · May 21, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
These classrooms must be mighty empty then.

Joint Math/CS PhD - Department of Computer Science

In Winter 2018, the Department of Mathematics and the Department of Computer Science launched a joint program through which participating students can earn the degree “Ph. D. in Mathematics and Computer Science.” The basic structure is that students must gain admission to both PhD programs and...

computerscience.uchicago.edu

That’s a single phd though. You said double.

swayze22 · May 21, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
These classrooms must be mighty empty then.

Joint Math/CS PhD - Department of Computer Science

In Winter 2018, the Department of Mathematics and the Department of Computer Science launched a joint program through which participating students can earn the degree “Ph. D. in Mathematics and Computer Science.” The basic structure is that students must gain admission to both PhD programs and...

computerscience.uchicago.edu

Well to be fair that program also launched in 2018 at university of chicago of all places - if you get into that program you can probably already do whatever you were trying to accomplish anyways haha

Khane · May 21, 2021

wormie said:
That’s a single phd though. You said double.

Well it is now, since 2018. But there must have been a lot of students doing both for them to start offering it as a single PhD (even though it technically is a double PhD, you just only have to write one dissertation instead of two)

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2021

wormie said:
That’s a single phd though. You said double.

big brother bb20 GIF by Big Brother After Dark

wormie · May 21, 2021

Khane said:
Well it is now, since 2018. But there must have been a lot of students doing both for them to start offering it as a single PhD (even though it technically is a double PhD, you just only have to write one dissertation instead of two)

Nah. It's not rare to have joint phds. Better question is, is the math these people learn qualified?

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