Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Fantastic read regarding FX markets, what is happening with JPY and EURO right now with regard to USD, WHY its happening, and what we're likely to see next.

Probably the best aggregation of this data I've ever found. I've cobbled together a similar viewpoint from learning and paying attention to how this stuff works but Hayes really killed it with this. 100% worth your time to read.



TL DR - Hyperinflation is essentially inevitable in Japan and EU. US is racing to recession to create political will to print more money to save their allies. Until Fed pivot cash is king. Once they do BTC is going get crazy... irresponsible monetary policy has consequences.

Disagree? Ask yourself this; where do you put your money when the world is collectively debasing their currencies in unison? A good bet is the same place the rich are storing their value (land, stonks, etc) but owning a hedge outside the failing system becomes more and more tenable as the systemic failures become more obvious.

Flobee said:

Fantastic read regarding FX markets, what is happening with JPY and EURO right now with regard to USD, WHY its happening, and what we're likely to see next.

Probably the best aggregation of this data I've ever found. I've cobbled together a similar viewpoint from learning and paying attention to how this stuff works but Hayes really killed it with this. 100% worth your time to read.



TL DR - Hyperinflation is essentially inevitable in Japan and EU. US is racing to recession to create political will to print more money to save their allies. Until Fed pivot cash is king. Once they do BTC is going get crazy... irresponsible monetary policy has consequences.

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A guy with a monkey Twitter profile pic thinks crypto is going to the moon? No fucking way!

Ishad said:

A guy with a monkey Twitter profile pic thinks crypto is going to the moon? No fucking way!

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/shrug I disagree with a ton of his stances, the article is good though. You can verify just about every claim made independently.

EDIT: Also worth noting he barely mentions crypto at all in the article. It's a macro focused essay, the implications are obvious though

Eaqa

Ishad said:

A guy with a monkey Twitter profile pic thinks crypto is going to the moon? No fucking way!

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You're mixing up your coins newb.

Arden said:

Eaqa

You're mixing up your coins newb.

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Yeah, I know nfts are etherum. It’s a clear sign that the dude is heavily invested in the product he’s pumping.

wormie said:

Dumber than the continual claim that crypto is a hedge against inflation?

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When's the last time anyone worth paying attention to made that claim?

Arden said:

When's the last time anyone worth paying attention to made that claim?

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It's funny that so many of you say this sort of thing, yet have no clue what you're talking about. CPI is a lagging indicator, why would you expect Bitcoin (not crypto) to be going up NOW when the printing happened in 2020. Go look at the dates when M1 supply went up, go look at Bitcoin price reaction. There is your inflation hedge.

Its incredibly obvious that all assets priced in USD will go down in value while USD liquidity is being sucked out of the market. Just about all of you would be well served by spending some time understanding how FX markets work. Mist just watch... the Fed will pivot toward printing hard within 12 months. I wouldn't be shocked if they do so before November honestly. Continuing to strengthen the USD will crash all international markets and push literally all countries toward BRICS over USD. Unless the Fed is completely controlled by China (they could be) then they will pivot hard relatively soon... as soon as they can credibly say they've staunched inflation. Any other response only hastens the end of USD hegemony.

Everyone is so fast to just call others stupid while doing absolutely zero work to understand what they are talking about.

I wasn't calling anyone stupid fwiw- just wrong. Because if you believe that any crypto currency (including BTC) has made the leap from speculative asset to inflation hedge, it seems pretty clear you are demonstrably wrong.

Inflation hedges are supposed to protect the investor against the decreasing purchasing power of money. Regardless of when the money was printed, USD has lost ~ 9% of its purchasing power in the last year. BTC lost ~32% of it's USD value in that year. That's not an inflation hedge...

Arden said:

I wasn't calling anyone stupid fwiw- just wrong. Because if you believe that any crypto currency (including BTC) has made the leap from speculative asset to inflation hedge, it seems pretty clear you are demonstrably wrong.

Inflation hedges are supposed to protect the investor against the decreasing purchasing power of money. Regardless of when the money was printed, USD has lost ~ 9% of its purchasing power in the last year. BTC lost ~32% of it's USD value in that year. That's not an inflation hedge...

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That's fair. BTC is a speculative asset for sure, however it has done a fantastic job of hedging against inflation since 2009. That is easily verified. The speculative aspect of it is why you can make so much money by just holding it. If you view BTC as a currency rather than an asset, which I do, its quite clear that Gresham's Law is playing out.

When you choose an arbitrary time frame you can make whatever claim you want. You chose the last year, I chose the last 2 years... we came to different conclusions. The debasement occurred in 2020 so IMO its a better timeframe to measure from. It takes time for new money to start sloshing around the system, hence why CPI is a (bad) lagging indicator. The best way to look at this is the long view. BTC was created because of the currency debasement that has occurred since 1971, but specifically from the 2008 financial crisis. From that point BTC has been a far superior store of value than the USD.

The only ways to hedge against inflation are to hold assets... or a currency that isn't being debased (or at least debased slower). This is the argument that Gold bugs have been making for years. Unfortunately for them Gold can not easily be circulated so it is traded as paper gold... which can easily be rehypothecated (debased). Bitcoin due to its nature is not nearly as vulnerable to manipulation.

As per the Fed; Bitcoin is money:

Refresh me, whats probably the simplest noob friendly way to wallet my eth and btc. It's pennies less than a thousand before the crash, but feel like after my last link maybe it's worth hassle of trying to get off coinbase. (less than a full coin if that matters) Can abandon my shitcoin I imagine.

Sludig said:

Refresh me, whats probably the simplest noob friendly way to wallet my eth and btc. It's pennies less than a thousand before the crash, but feel like after my last link maybe it's worth hassle of trying to get off coinbase. (less than a full coin if that matters) Can abandon my shitcoin I imagine.

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I like my Ledger Nano. Cold storage makes holding through anything much, much easier- and safer. Just make sure you buy directly from Ledger.

Mist said:

Because Saylor stopped following a Twitter account?

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thats racist