Black Adam (2021)

i've never really understood movie projections. i'm sure there's some relatively straightforward explanation on them but i've also never really cared enough to look for that explanation.

that being said, i wonder how covid has affected those projections. outside of a few movies like top gun, aren't box offices still pretty low? and even with top gun, it was only number 1 for like 2 weeks, it just had huge staying power. i know that, for the most part, people aren't nearly as terrified of covid as they were before and are a lot more accepting of going to crowded places, but with movie theatres specifically i feel like the masses have become more and more comfortable with just streaming a movie at home instead of dealing with the nonsense of the theatres.

do all the projections on what movies "should" be doing box office wise take that into account?

j00t said:

i've never really understood movie projections. i'm sure there's some relatively straightforward explanation on them but i've also never really cared enough to look for that explanation.

that being said, i wonder how covid has affected those projections. outside of a few movies like top gun, aren't box offices still pretty low? and even with top gun, it was only number 1 for like 2 weeks, it just had huge staying power. i know that, for the most part, people aren't nearly as terrified of covid as they were before and are a lot more accepting of going to crowded places, but with movie theatres specifically i feel like the masses have become more and more comfortable with just streaming a movie at home instead of dealing with the nonsense of the theatres.

do all the projections on what movies "should" be doing box office wise take that into account?

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I would assume so, otherwise I dont think they would have kept Top Gun on a shelf for 2 years so they could release it at a time when they thought they could finally make the most money, when they could have used it to bolster a streaming service and gotten vod and bluray dollars much earlier.

I'm sure the movie starring the last capital M Western Movie Star in Tom Cruise helped them feel better about keeping it to release in theaters, but I assume their accountants were clenching their assholes every month that went by.

But the box office analysts will always put in the caveat that you cant really compare things, even across the same DCEU/MCU/whatever franchises to pre-2020, cause it still isn't the same to the general movie going public. I feel like opening weekends are back for the die hards, but the casual fan will be happy to wait for VOD or overwhelmingly positive reviews to venture out.

Angerz said:

I feel like opening weekends are back for the die hards, but the casual fan will be happy to wait for VOD or overwhelmingly positive reviews to venture out.

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Well that's what I'm questioning about. When you look at this movie specifically, how can you tell what's successful or not? It had good numbers the first week or two, then has basically slowed down to a crawl. Pre-covid you'd say that's because the movie had terrible word of mouth and it wasn't any good. But we know that generally the fans have rated it fairly positively.

It feels like people are comparing it's financial success to Shazam, but the general population doesn't go to movies anymore like they did when Shazam was released. How do you decide what's a success or not anymore?

j00t said:

Well that's what I'm questioning about. When you look at this movie specifically, how can you tell what's successful or not? It had good numbers the first week or two, then has basically slowed down to a crawl. Pre-covid you'd say that's because the movie had terrible word of mouth and it wasn't any good. But we know that generally the fans have rated it fairly positively.

It feels like people are comparing it's financial success to Shazam, but the general population doesn't go to movies anymore like they did when Shazam was released. How do you decide what's a success or not anymore?

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My thoughts exactly. It makes me chuckle when every week new movie is a "Box Office Smash Hit". But its because its literally the only new movie out that has more than 2 show times. Hardly anyone is ever at the theaters when I go now.

Almost no point to going now with ticket prices, concession prices and most movies come out a month later on streaming.

They need to end the preconception that these movies will be on streaming quickly.

Take Spiderman for instance. Disney doesn't get a say when it will be available for streaming and it doesn't go to VOD Until 4 months after the release (just 2 weeks prior to Blu Ray release). Doesnt go to "free" streaming and when it does it goes to Starz which Sony owns.

Movie makes 2 billion WITHOUT getting a release in China

Granted Spiderman was great, but there is no reason Black Panther 2 couldn't break a bill again easy. I saw the first one in the theatres since it was the the leadin to Infinity War, but it was still IN the theatres when Infinity War came out.

Black Panther 2 will be on Disney Plus which everyone and their mother has and shares the login for on December 31st is the rumor atm (50 days after release).

As Animosity said going to movies is expensive and half the time you go teens are on their phones, some asshole is talking, old people cant hear dialogue so they are asking each other who said what, and the experience can be pretty bad. Its just not worth going anymore unless its a subset of directors and only if its in a PREMIUM (stadium imax) show where its like $25+ more per ticket to keep the teens / old people away and people don't talk cause they are spending real money. There isn't a lot of those movies though and seeing a Phase 4 or 5 MCU or DCU shit fest will never count again.

James Cameron
Dennis Villeneuve
Chris Nolan
George Miller Mad Max Films
Tom Cruise action flicks

Other then that I am catching the 10am Sunday show for a cheap matinee if I care (this will be Antman) or I can wait to stream it. Like why am I watching Black Adam at home in like 2 weeks? Make me go to the theatre if I cared

j00t said:

Well that's what I'm questioning about. When you look at this movie specifically, how can you tell what's successful or not? It had good numbers the first week or two, then has basically slowed down to a crawl. Pre-covid you'd say that's because the movie had terrible word of mouth and it wasn't any good. But we know that generally the fans have rated it fairly positively.

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Well, even pre-covid, a superhero (or really any big blockbuster) falling off 55 to 65% was not a surprise, it was expected. People go week one to see big tentpole movies, some people wait for the theaters to clear out. Its just that the size of each pool is smaller now (but it is still recovering)

With how fast things go to streaming and VOD, I dont think we will ever know truly how successful a movie is anymore, since we dont know how many subs it drives, how much it sells on VOD, etc.

Ossoi said:

the short release window to 4k torrents has really made the cinema a less attractive proposition. I will still go to support certain movies eg Top Gun, and for must see event movies. But the poor quality of recent MCU movies means they're no longer essential to see in the cinema

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Its exactly the problem, these other studios are giving their tentpoles 3-4 months theater exclusivity. 4k rips can't exist if there isnt a VOD. I don't feel piracy is a contributing factor for the population at large, parents dont want to take their kids to the movies if they can see the newest MCU / DC film in 45 days after release.

j00t said:

Well that's what I'm questioning about. When you look at this movie specifically, how can you tell what's successful or not? It had good numbers the first week or two, then has basically slowed down to a crawl. Pre-covid you'd say that's because the movie had terrible word of mouth and it wasn't any good. But we know that generally the fans have rated it fairly positively.

It feels like people are comparing it's financial success to Shazam, but the general population doesn't go to movies anymore like they did when Shazam was released. How do you decide what's a success or not anymore?

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By how much it cost versus how much it made... Lol. If people aren't going to movies as much it doesn't really matter why for the bottom line. They might make a little more in rentals and sales from people waiting and staying at home but generally the box office has the best returns for a studio. Black Adam had the kind of budget and marketing for a movie that is expected to do at least 5-600 million worldwide at a minimum.

COVID didn't fundamentally change how to determine if a movie is financially successful but it has presumably permanently shifted a lot of people's viewing habits so you really need something to stand out more to make people go to the theater. Black Adam might have been a decent enough film for fans of the genre but it didn't have enough to bring in people closer to the fringe of interest.

being charitable 5/10

went in with super low expectations and it was better than i expected. first half of the movie was decent, second half dragged hard and the final fight was a snooze fest, no stakes at all and you knew how it was gonna go. I did like the Mummy vibes from parts of the movie, too bad it didn't lean into that harder. Walmart Avengers team was so bad, who gives a shit about Great Value Ant Man, Storm, and Falcon

Post credits cut scene, for all the fan servicing it obviously is, was still pretty awesome

but yeah at this point to drag my ass into a theater you gotta have some sort of gimmick that makes it a must watch, just regular cape shit ain't it. I watched it at home in 4K and missed absolutely nothing waiting a month or two.

For 9/10 movies we watch in any format there is no incentive to see it opening weekend in the theater any more. Do whatever is convenient and no value is lost.

Is that streaming and TV options getting better? Or movies getting worse? Both?

Malakriss said:

For 9/10 movies we watch in any format there is no incentive to see it opening weekend in the theater any more. Do whatever is convenient and no value is lost.

Is that streaming and TV options getting better? Or movies getting worse? Both?

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OLED tv's sure do make movies look great, and be real is seeing Black Adam punch some dudes really need a gigantic screen with teens on their phones?

There are fewer and fewer movie experiences these days... seeing Gravity in the theater was awesome, I can't imagine the point of watching that shit on your TV at home.

Avatar is the next "experience" movie since 3D is built into the story, then the Dune sequel since DV uses IMAX to its limit. After that I dunno? Oppenheimer by Nolan maybe? Wont be Antman thats for sure lol

Sanrith Descartes said:

I have been slowly working my way through the DC animated movies on HBO. Why the fuck dont they just use these scripts? Some of these are better than most of the DC live action movies. Justice League Dark movies vs WW84? No contest.

Edit: forgot, ill watch Black Adam in a few weeks on HBO.

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yeah. idk. good to decent scripts. but, then direct to dvd budgets... imagine they got the into the spiderverse, arcane, etc treatment.

Finally got around to watching it. My biggest problem with this was that it felt like a movie with Black Adam in it, as opposed to a Black Adam movie. That being said, it was cool enough and I'm looking forward to more if they can keep it fun.

Watched this tonight and it was awful. It felt like WW1984, just a jumbled mess.

The reviews just weren't enough to tip it for me. Sounds like another Shang-Chi CG-fest just using a more well-known actor in Dwayne Johnson.