China suffers worst wheat harvest in 55 years

Abefroman_sl said:

Based on what? The bullshit numbers the Chinese government provides?

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Right, because the entire world simply just takes the numbers of the Chinese government and treats them as gospel. There's no independent analysts, think tanks, NGO's, or other governments that do their own research on China's economy.

Can you find a single credible source that disputes the size of China's economy? Because the IMF, World Bank, and CIA all say that it's either the largest or second largest economy on the planet. It just depends if you're going by purchasing power parity or nominal GDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...y_GDP_(nominal)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...es_by_GDP_(PPP)

Did everyone just read that on Friday?

Well they haven't devalued the rmb AGAIN (they insisted it was a one-off) but if they do then it's a signal that they're reversing on the 5-year plan to push for a domestic consumption and going back to exports for growth.

IF Beijjing signals a reversal like that, it would validate the view that the PBOC is panicking and then we'd be in the shit for sure.

I hope they succeed with domestic consumption, but I think they need to chill on the heavy handed state sponsored corrections. If the world loses faith in China it will be a problem for economic growth across the entire developed world. It's not "too big to fail" but it's big enough to rock the boat for years to come. I'm curious how China's situation is affecting the TPP. I think it gives us less power to negotiate draconian IP protection as the prime motivator of the south asian parties is developing an alternative to chinese competition.

Centrally-planned state intervention is what they do. It's big key feature of"socialism-with-chinese-characteristics". It's actually much more heavily authoritarian than the "Market Leninism" that social democrats espouse.

yea, but it's something they've been trying to do less of. As their economy grows more complex central control becomes less effective on such an overt level.

I'm familiar with the level of state sponsored projects both the current communist regime and ancient regimes got up to. The current administration, specifically Xi, are trying to shift the economy from investments and exports to domestic consumption, and lower growth was forecast already. But the stock collapse is causing political pressure on the administration, especially from people who have been affected by Xi's corruption crackdown. They say the new normal is too much too soon, and that the crackdown is little more than an attack on Xi's political opposition. So the state is trying to have its cake and eat it too, pushing for financial and political reforms while manipulating the market more than it should according to its reform goals.

It's really a no-win situation. I think Xi's efforts are good for the potential of chinese democracy and capitalism, but how they're traveling to that destination is getting messy quickly. There is currently an ebb in support for the president among the political elite, but they don't want to lose face in the eyes of the world so how they handle the crisis of leadership is an open question. The abdication of the pope comes to mind, but I doubt Xi will be so visibly set aside. More likely the state run heavy industries and military will just quietly fail to comply for the length of his term if the situation continues to decline.

One child doesn't affect the entire population. China's population has never stopped growing. It has doubled since 1960. The rate of growth has been similar both pre and post one child policy being enacted. There are a lot of legal exceptions and semi-legal shenanigans people use to avoid it. If they repealed it today the birthrate would probably only increase marginally, and for a short period.

Regarding the impossibility of a long term consumption economy, I just don't know what you're smoking. They're practically already there. Service is growing while manufacturing is downsizing. They're growing up with or without political pressure to do so.

Cad_sl said:

In the 80's there was a panic that the Japanese were taking over our country and industries and buying up half of NYC etc. These days its the Chinese.

China has immense potential but immense structural problems too. I think China doing well helps us all, but I'm taking a wait and see attitude.

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Reminds me of :


Prophetic anyway, if only the last few pages.

China cut it's rates again today. According to the Peoples Bank of China, they have "recently perfected the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar."

So China's back on the "growth at all costs" path and never mind the debt. This will end well.