Coronavirus Updates, Important Information, and Ancedotal Experience

Daidraco · Apr 5, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Finally. Someone gets it. Not surprisingly you are in business. Just curious, what type of dealership? Are your manufacturers working out a deal on your floorplanning to ease the carry cost?

Wells Fargo does our floor plan and they offered an extension of curtailment. I work between Toyota and Kia for the same Auto Group. Incentives for both of those brands have barely changed. You can extend out your first payment up to 120 days now, but the incentives that are out between them roughly match what they were doing in November for example. The brands that were already in trouble such as Jeep, Chevy etc. are the idiots doing 84 months at 0% interest on tiers 1-3 and you can generally bump up a customer's tier if they are a "good" tier 4. Take into account that you can also extend your first payment for 120 days there, too. So 88 months at 0% interest. The value of those vehicles are going to tank, and these people buying them are going to be stuck in them for ~6 years.

Aldarion · Apr 5, 2020

Khane said:
Yea I'd imagine fast food and restaurants that had a delivery model like pizza places might even be doing more business right now.

This is the untold side of the economics of the shutdown. Some industries are seeing 2-4 fold increased revenue.

People like to make fun of it by picking silly examples of industries seeing this effect (e.g pot stores) but let's face it, most of the shutdown horror stories are from unimportant luxury industries too.

Some businesses benefit, many lose... Some find a way to pivot and survive.

brekk · Apr 5, 2020

Aldarion said:
This is the untold side of the economics of the shutdown. Some industries are seeing 2-4 fold increased revenue.

People like to make fun of it by picking silly examples of industries seeing this effect (e.g pot stores) but let's face it, most of the shutdown horror stories are from unimportant luxury industries too.

Some businesses benefit, many lose... Some find a way to pivot and survive.

And that really becomes the big issue. As manufacturing has gone overseas and been replaced by service jobs the question of essential versus non-essential really highlights how superfluous a lot of American jobs are.

I don't mean to lessen the economic impact of losing them, but we really need to look at where American jobs have shifted in the last 50 years. It's not into high skill, high technology, white collar. All the important blue collar middle class jobs, have turned into bullshit lower class service jobs. And these jobs only have demand when times are good, they don't add value, they're just there to bring convenience to the true middle class and up doing the real work and bringing real value to our economy.

And that's all due to globalism, free trade, and the push for everyone to be a unique flower studying whatever bullshit they want in college.

Edit: Just to add, this has a doubly impactful effect as the crap service jobs don't provide enough economic stability for those people to weather these difficult times on their own. Much like 2008, their jobs are the first and fastest to disappear and simultenously they are the most likely to be living paycheck to paycheck and immediately become dependent on the system for survival.

We've become so obsessed over the unemployment rate we fail to focus on if it's good jobs, or not. When you look at wage growth it's glaringly obvious we have created a giant class of people bordering on indentured servitude. If you look at Alabama circa 1850, the African-American employment rate was 100%, wasn't exactly good for them now was it.

Alex · Apr 5, 2020

Yeah most tech companies are doing well right now. Beyond my service industry friends, I only know one person that's lost their job. Airbnb is obviously facing some serious problems (right as they were approaching IPO too). This past week they announced that we're on a hiring freeze and raises aren't going to happen until towards the end of the year, but that's it. No layoffs or paycuts that I know other industries are doing.

I might be having one of my personal best quarters. And it looked like it was going to be a little less than average before this hit.

lgarthy · Apr 5, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Again you are clueless. Drive thru lines at Starbucks, McDonald's etc are backed up into the streets here. Sit-down mom and pops restaurants are getting fucked but the big fast food chains are going to find this is a more cost efficient model. Less labor required when its all drive thru.

Who would have thought Demolition Man would have been prophecy?

I have said from the beginning that Americans cannot accept mortality and the fact that they are going to die. Isn't it nice area nursing homes are dumping their patients on already overcrowded ERs, rather than hunkering down and stating hard facts-- "a lot of you are going to die?" Now more people can die in the ER (the people that actually need to be there, and the nursing home patients dumped there) -- because it's certainly less safe than where they came from.

21 Veterans Dead at Holyoke Soldiers' Home, 15 Residents Dead at Norwood Facility

The number of veterans who have recently died at the Holyoke Soldiers’ Home is now 21, 15 of whom tested positive for COVID-19, state Heath and Human Services Secretary Marylou Sudders said Friday. Tests for three other veterans who have recently died are pending, two tests were negative and the...

www.nbcboston.com

The lawyers are salivating. I wish there was a disease that selected them.

There is a cultural cost to stupidity and arrogance.

lgarthy · Apr 5, 2020

PLUS

This virus doesn't follow the rules. Even with the most severe sepsis, an intensive care unit can salvage/save about 60-70% of their patients.

COVID-19 doesn't follow the rules. Even how it selects it's hosts is mysterious. Yes, if you're older and have diabetes, HTN, and/or cancer, you're much more likely to get severe illness and die. But among those young and healthy that it "chooses" (sorry for the anthropomorphism) it is a mystery. I am hoping that something random is found that works and is cheap. Vitamin C is being tried, but that would be a blessing if a cheap, easy, non-toxic therapy were found...

As to the usual stuff-- it doesn't work. A ridiculous percentage of those being put on a ventilator don't survive. And, unlike most forms of sepsis, these patients aren't on a vent for days, but weeks. That compounds the ventilator shortage. There's not enough and they stay on them too long. But again-- this thing is a game-changer and the old ways don't work for it... The article below showed a 98% mortality rate (but reality is likely about 80-90% NOT including survival with significant pulmonary dysfunction). That's abysmal. We need to rethink the "normal" and make some hard decisions regarding quality/quantity of lives saved (until a working, innovative, solution is discovered).

Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators - Physician's Weekly

Written by Physician's Weekly Blogger, Skeptical Scalpel Although at the time I wrote this over 33,000 people had died from COVID 19 infections worldwide, the numbers of patients dying in intensive care units and on mechanical ventilation is unknown. We have some early published data on...

www.physiciansweekly.com

TJT · Apr 5, 2020

Mist said:
Do you think people in NYC would be going about normal business right now if the government said it was okay?

People were going to shut down and quarantine anyway.

This is dumb. Considering how packed to the brim all the parks in Austin are with people hanging out and tailgating. Something I've never ever seen done at parks in my 7 years here. They would be at restaurants and bars doing this if all of those weren't forcibly fucking closed down. They don't care now so they find alternative places to socialize and ignore the mandates.

Austin can't be the only place doing this.

Alex · Apr 5, 2020

TJT said:
This is dumb. Considering how packed to the brim all the parks in Austin are with people hanging out and tailgating. Something I've never ever seen done at parks in my 7 years here. They would be at restaurants and bars doing this if all of those weren't forcibly fucking closed down. They don't care now so they find alternative places to socialize and ignore the mandates.

Austin can't be the only place doing this.

Yeah, parks were the only thing left open here after initial shutdown and that first weekend they were PACKED. Way above normal. Parks got shutdown after that weekend.

Khane · Apr 5, 2020

TJT said:
This is dumb. Considering how packed to the brim all the parks in Austin are with people hanging out and tailgating. Something I've never ever seen done at parks in my 7 years here. They would be at restaurants and bars doing this if all of those weren't forcibly fucking closed down. They don't care now so they find alternative places to socialize and ignore the mandates.

Austin can't be the only place doing this.

Same thing was happening in NYC which is why extra measures were taken to shut down sections of parks like Central Park, and other parks in their entirety. Mist isn't thinking straight about people just deciding to voluntarily stay indoors until this blows over.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 5, 2020

Daidraco said:
Wells Fargo does our floor plan and they offered an extension of curtailment. I work between Toyota and Kia for the same Auto Group. Incentives for both of those brands have barely changed. You can extend out your first payment up to 120 days now, but the incentives that are out between them roughly match what they were doing in November for example. The brands that were already in trouble such as Jeep, Chevy etc. are the idiots doing 84 months at 0% interest on tiers 1-3 and you can generally bump up a customer's tier if they are a "good" tier 4. Take into account that you can also extend your first payment for 120 days there, too. So 88 months at 0% interest. The value of those vehicles are going to tank, and these people buying them are going to be stuck in them for ~6 years.

84 months on a Chevy. 0 interest is cool and all but 7 years on a Chevy. Lol

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 5, 2020

brekk said:
And that really becomes the big issue. As manufacturing has gone overseas and been replaced by service jobs the question of essential versus non-essential really highlights how superfluous a lot of American jobs are.

I don't mean to lessen the economic impact of losing them, but we really need to look at where American jobs have shifted in the last 50 years. It's not into high skill, high technology, white collar. All the important blue collar middle class jobs, have turned into bullshit lower class service jobs. And these jobs only have demand when times are good, they don't add value, they're just there to bring convenience to the true middle class and up doing the real work and bringing real value to our economy.

And that's all due to globalism, free trade, and the push for everyone to be a unique flower studying whatever bullshit they want in college.

Edit: Just to add, this has a doubly impactful effect as the crap service jobs don't provide enough economic stability for those people to weather these difficult times on their own. Much like 2008, their jobs are the first and fastest to disappear and simultenously they are the most likely to be living paycheck to paycheck and immediately become dependent on the system for survival.

We've become so obsessed over the unemployment rate we fail to focus on if it's good jobs, or not. When you look at wage growth it's glaringly obvious we have created a giant class of people bordering on indentured servitude. If you look at Alabama circa 1850, the African-American employment rate was 100%, wasn't exactly good for them now was it.

I employ welders and fabricators here in the US of A. In NY no less. My margins generally suck but I have always taken solace in the fact we make products here with American blue collar skilled labor. And trust me good welders should be considered as skilled as any code writing wonk out there. I mention all this to reinforce what you are saying. Its a two way street. If we want manufacturing back in America then we have to be willing to pay the price at the register. Our standard of living ain't cheap. There has got to be the realization that you ain't getting China-made prices if its going to be made here. We can't have it both ways.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 5, 2020

lgarthy said:
PLUS

This virus doesn't follow the rules. Even with the most severe sepsis, an intensive care unit can salvage/save about 60-70% of their patients.

COVID-19 doesn't follow the rules. Even how it selects it's hosts is mysterious. Yes, if you're older and have diabetes, HTN, and/or cancer, you're much more likely to get severe illness and die. But among those young and healthy that it "chooses" (sorry for the anthropomorphism) it is a mystery. I am hoping that something random is found that works and is cheap. Vitamin C is being tried, but that would be a blessing if a cheap, easy, non-toxic therapy were found...

As to the usual stuff-- it doesn't work. A ridiculous percentage of those being put on a ventilator don't survive. And, unlike most forms of sepsis, these patients aren't on a vent for days, but weeks. That compounds the ventilator shortage. There's not enough and they stay on them too long. But again-- this thing is a game-changer and the old ways don't work for it... The article below showed a 98% mortality rate (but reality is likely about 80-90% NOT including survival with significant pulmonary dysfunction). That's abysmal. We need to rethink the "normal" and make some hard decisions regarding quality/quantity of lives saved (until a working, innovative, solution is discovered).

Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators - Physician's Weekly

Written by Physician's Weekly Blogger, Skeptical Scalpel Although at the time I wrote this over 33,000 people had died from COVID 19 infections worldwide, the numbers of patients dying in intensive care units and on mechanical ventilation is unknown. We have some early published data on...

www.physiciansweekly.com

Whenever I mention the word triage I get called all sorts of shitty names by people. There is a reason we came up with the concept of triage and why we employ it every single day all around the world. It works in terms of saving the most lives.

lgarthy · Apr 5, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Whenever I mention the word triage I get called all sorts of shitty names by people. There is a reason we came up with the concept of triage and why we employ it every single day all around the world. It works in terms of saving the most lives.

lgarthy · Apr 5, 2020

And of course, cut pay and fire those on the front line...

During a Pandemic, an Unanticipated Problem: Out-of-Work Health Workers (Published 2020)

Across the country, plunging revenues from canceled nonemergency medical appointments have forced hospitals to furlough or cut the pay of doctors, nurses and other staff.

www.nytimes.com

Cutbacks for some doctors and nurses as they battle on the front line - The Boston Globe

These financial cutbacks, coming in response to sudden shortfalls during the coronavirus outbreak, have triggered an outcry from doctors and nurses who are already working grueling shifts in demanding working conditions.

www.bostonglobe.com

slippery · Apr 5, 2020

Imagine that, you light the economy on fire and business have to fire people and pay people less

Kovaks · Apr 5, 2020

My wife is primary care NP right now and she is getting cut to part time as they are getting way less people since everyone is either being told to stay home or go to urgent care/er, she could fill in at urgent care but that doesnt sound very fun, of all the jobs you would think were secure right now.

slippery · Apr 5, 2020

Kovaks said:
My wife is primary care NP right now and she is getting cut to part time as they are getting way less people since everyone is either being told to stay home or go to urgent care/er, she could fill in at urgent care but that doesnt sound very fun, of all the jobs you would think were secure right now.

Don't worry, we're lighting the world on fire to save the medical professionals!

Izo · Apr 5, 2020

Kovaks said:
My wife is primary care NP right now and she is getting cut to part time as they are getting way less people since everyone is either being told to stay home or go to urgent care/er, she could fill in at urgent care but that doesnt sound very fun, of all the jobs you would think were secure right now.

Experiencing the same thing. I do ER shifts a few times a month between ICU/anae. It’s like we’re all on top of each other to see the few ptt that actually show up. Corona suspect are diverted to corona admittance wards. And the ICU is 1/3 full after diverting all non-critical OP anae personal to ICU. It’s really weird. Either we’re too good at isolation, or we’ve yet to be hit full on.

Borzak · Apr 5, 2020

Lake Urgent Care/Lake After Hours set to offer new rapid COVID-19 test

Lake Urgent Care/Lake After Hours has been selected as one of the first urgent care operators in the country to offer Rapid COVID-19 Molecular Tests.

www.wafb.com

BATON ROUGE, LA - Lake Urgent Care/Lake After Hours reported it has been selected as one of the first urgent care operators in the country to offer Rapid COVID-19 Molecular Tests.

Officials said the new screening will be administered on-site in the clinic and can identify patients with the COVID-19 virus in five to 13 minutes.

yamikazo · Apr 6, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
I employ welders and fabricators here in the US of A. In NY no less. My margins generally suck but I have always taken solace in the fact we make products here with American blue collar skilled labor. And trust me good welders should be considered as skilled as any code writing wonk out there. I mention all this to reinforce what you are saying. Its a two way street. If we want manufacturing back in America then we have to be willing to pay the price at the register. Our standard of living ain't cheap. There has got to be the realization that you ain't getting China-made prices if its going to be made here. We can't have it both ways.

The global economy has, in many ways, been a race to the bottom. We enjoy our high standard of living that's built on the backs of slave wages half a wold away. The cost to making things in Murica ain't cheap.

I don't foresee consumers choosing en masse choosing to buy things made here. We're too far removed from being a country of makers and the public doesn't have the pride to make a difference writ large.

Coronavirus Updates, Important Information, and Ancedotal Experience

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