its a bit of guess work but apparently Mulan has netted $250-300m at least for Disney so far via their $30 D+ release. This $260m number is just US domestic, Mulan also released for $ internationally at slightly cheaper prices, so that'll be an additional amount of money.
With Tenet and other films struggling at the box office, Disney took a gamble and released Mulan directly to its Disney+ streaming platform where subscribers could purchase the flick for $30.
www.comingsoon.net
In comparison in the same time frame Tenet has racked around $30m domestic and $220m intl, which is roughly gonna be $70-100m to Warner Bros. Less than a third of Mulan.
This is pretty much the death blow for theaters, it makes way more sense to put out a premium VOD offer than go to out to theaters for the next six months.
Its also gonna be a massive profit tier strategy for Disney now, they can start putting out "premium" movies on D+ for a 3-6 month exclusive $20-40 fee. Sucks ass but clearly people are willing to pay. I'd bet Black Widow pops up this way. The big question is stuff like Eternals.
There's a lot to analyze in those numbers.
260M on Disney+ is probably the equivalent of 600M+ Worldwide Box Office for Disney considering the take from theaters is 50% in US, and much lower internationally. So that's probably considered a success.
It probably also made some people sign up for Disney+ that were before which is some money, that they can hopefully keep a few subscribed all year long which could bring a decent amount too.
The place where they might lose, is some people saw the movie in theater and than bought it on Blu-ray or digitally. Now all of those that watched it on Disney+ don't need to buy it as long as they remain subscribed...this could lead to some losses on the sales of Blu-ray and digital.
Only Disney will know exactly if it's good or bad. One movie is too small a sample anyways, we'll have an idea if they go ahead and release Black Widow on Disney+, that would mean they somewhat satisfied with the results to take another chance, if they don't than it means it's under their expectation.
Probably the biggest factor long term is Disney+ subscriptions. If Disney is able to put 1 Marvel, Pixar, Star Wars, and other franchise per month on the service as premium this could drive the amount of subscribers up big time, allowing them to make massive money from the service, and right now being only $6.99 there's room for them to raise the cost if they add a lot of value to the service.
One thing that might change over time, is people getting used to this concept and organizing "at home movie nights" where they invite friends and family over for dinner and a movie making the $30 very much a great deal vs $10 per person at the theater + food.
As I've said I don't wish theaters to die, but I am hoping this works as I prefer to watch movie at home than at the theater but will go to the theater for some movies rather than wait 6 months to see it at home.
The thing that could be bad about this is that they move too much stuff to the premium service...imagine if The Mandalorian for example became something like $9.99 premium to watch now, and free in 3 months. It could get messy, and probably will to be honest...greed is a huge motivator.