Not to mention if a big budget movie goes into the black, but still falls below estimates, it's still a failure considering the risk model I imagine the real big budget movies are plugged into during the planning stages. Nobody (the large groups of entities in a movies case) drops a high risk 200m in hopes of getting a few percentage points into the black. Maybe
Screamfeeder
has some idea but I'm sure there is a percentage over total production / advertising cost a movie needs hit for it to not be something thought about as "whoa shit we coulda lost our assholes on that never again!"
Sort of. Even a movie in the red can "make money" for the people that financed it.
Hollywood Accounting is a thing for a reason. Estimates vary and producers are ALWAYS going to project higher than what it could realistically make.
When you are talking about projects in the $100m+ range you are talking about dozens of different financiers (some even from other studios) so the risk is spread out. But even if it tanks horribly, the studios insurance will cover the costs of things like pay and materials (Unions and guaranteed pay are protected for a reason in our biz).
So for example some random Producer might offer up $1,000,000.00 up front for an "Associate Producer" credit and a 0.5% backend. During production, that "Producer" is going to get paid a set rate while filming even if he does nothing more than sit at home and play Xbox. He might make a phone call here and there to chime in, and maybe not. His worth was the $1mil he offered up. This would be per his deal memo and based on P.G.A. standard rates. So he gets "paid" back some of that money as a weekly check. Now lets say his pay equals $250,000.00 during production. He is out $750,000.00 from his total investment and needs that 0.5% to come back enough to pay it. Most of the time, even with a complete bomb, the producers will make that back on initial ticket sales alone, but even if he doesn't, the insurance will pay a certain amount back (generally not all).
If the movie makes even a modest profit over the budget, then his playing Xbox might earn him a modest $100,000.00 on that 0.5% backend plus a credit to carry onto the next project along with the dozen other "Producers" that loaned the money. Now just do that x times and increase amounts across multiple projects. Some lose and some win.
Advertising is almost exclusively paid for by the studios or distributor as a corporate entity and so individual producers are not on the line for it. This is ALL depending on how the budget was worked out however and there are going to be exceptions.
TLDR - The studio could lose money, but the Producers might come out even based on their deals with the studio.