It's only if you haven't had it before or a new account.
My account is lapsed atm but I've gotten that 3 month deal before. I assume if you're lapsed but haven't gotten that deal before it would offer it to you.Confirmed it doesn't work on lapsed accounts? Usually these deals work if you just let sub expire. Can then stack live cards again and convert 1to1 ratio.
Thought about ultimate on my girlfriend's account with the 3 months for a dollar to earn more points to buy myself some head phones. But hasn't been any good live card deals lately for conversion.
These are some real console master-race 1st world problems.