Home buying thread

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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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For those of you who followed 2007/08, you know the story of what is happening, albeit for different reasons.

Demand outpaced supply and the bubble filled up. Now demand is below supply and the bubble is deflating.

7% mortgage rates arent insane... Historically. The problem as aomeone else mentioned is the disconnect between rates and house prices. This needs to adjust back to sanity before we see a return to normalcy in housing.
 
Blazin

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People operate under some assumption that housing HAS to be affordable. Why exactly? If they can't be affordable people simply won't build new ones and people won't leave their existing homes. These are both probable outcomes over housing magically becoming "affordable" as the only possible course. Might be smarter to start figuring out the proper course for decision making if housing remains unaffordable for many.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
People operate under some assumption that housing HAS to be affordable. Why exactly? If they can't be affordable people simply won't build new ones and people won't leave their existing homes. These are both probable outcomes over housing magically becoming "affordable" as the only possible course. Might be smarted to start figuring out the proper course for decision making if housing remains unaffordable for many.
Click to expand...
I hear kids used to live on the farms with mom and pop after they became adults. But i could be misremembering.
 
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Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I hear kids used to live on the farms with mom and pop after they became adults. But i could be misremembering.
Click to expand...
Used to?
300px-Monkey_Puppet.jpg
 
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Deathwing

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The current generation doesn't have the backbone for that kind of adversity and tough luck. They'd rather have their student loans "forgiven" than own up to the implicit introspection that they chose a shit degree. Being told they can't own a house? Rioting...which will ironically lower house prices.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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finance.yahoo.com

US Home Prices Now Posting Biggest Monthly Drops Since 2009

(Bloomberg) -- Home prices in the US have taken a turn and are now posting the biggest monthly declines since 2009. Most Read from BloombergCredit Suisse Turmoil Deepens With Record Stock, CDS LevelsCredit Suisse Market Turmoil Heightens After Memo BackfiresS&P 500 Jumps 3% After Washout as Bond...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
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Blazin

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Love the housing crashes! Prices up 12% yoy . Nobody gives a shit about monthly changes. We aren’t even close to being flat let alone down. Funny watching you guys get this with inflation but then sounding like Biden’s inflation take with housing.
 
Haus

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Khane said:
They are going to make out like bandits if it put them into a position to make all cash offers.
Click to expand...
This is part of my current dilema. As I have mentioned around here the long term Chez Haus goal is to buy some land (probably 20-50 acres) out away from town, build a house and a side home for my mom to live in. The funding is the question. I have my home (almost paid off), and my mom's home (paid off since the mid 70's) here in Dallas. I could sell them to pretty easily finance this goal, or I could turn them into rentals, and finance the farm.

Problem is how much I could sell them for is dropping, and how much I can borrow for is going up in cost. My hopes at this point are for a crescendo in real estate price pain (i.e. a real crash), then buy cheap so higher interest doesn't slaughter me and I can use the two houses as rentals to offset some/all costs. Just don't know if I'll get that lucky with the timing. I have enough capital right now in reserve to drop a sizable down payment on said farm if I didn't want to sell the current home, which would still be optimal as having a place to live while building a house and all.

Sanrith Descartes said:
finance.yahoo.com

US Home Prices Now Posting Biggest Monthly Drops Since 2009

(Bloomberg) -- Home prices in the US have taken a turn and are now posting the biggest monthly declines since 2009. Most Read from BloombergCredit Suisse Turmoil Deepens With Record Stock, CDS LevelsCredit Suisse Market Turmoil Heightens After Memo BackfiresS&P 500 Jumps 3% After Washout as Bond...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
Click to expand...

I have a friend who just got married, it entailed her moving to her "dream city" of NYC to live with her man. They were buying a condo there while interest rates were going up and it was killing them... And now she's trying to sell her house in Dallas and has already had to drop price on it once so she's getting it, as they would say, coming and going right now. She's owned the house just long enough that I think she's still going to be profitable on the transaction, just not as profitable as she would have liked.
 
Khane

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Blazin said:
Love the housing crashes! Prices up 12% yoy . Nobody gives a shit about monthly changes. We aren’t even close to being flat let alone down. Funny watching you guys get this with inflation but then sounding like Biden’s inflation take with housing.
Click to expand...

Has anyone suggested or used the term "housing crash"?

The cost to own hasn't gone down, this discussion is mostly just about increases in interest rates putting downward pressure on sale prices. It's already been mentioned this doesn't make housing more "affordable" for the masses who still need to mortgage a property to "buy" it.

As you mentioned, small monthly trends don't mean much in the grand scheme and it will take time and a continued trend for the general public to feel that housing is "affordable" again but that doesn't mean it's not a trend worth mentioning now.
 
mkopec

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The problem with housing is its a finite resource though, you guys are forgetting this from your equations. Yeah, there is more land to build on, sure, but its out in the boonies with 1.5 hr drives. And that land is also a finite resource too. Not everyone wants to drive 2-3 hours a day to work. This is the main driver for housing costs IMO. Population increasing while the finite resources stay the same, relative. Especially in the sought after areas where its still nice and close to all the good shit. This is why you wont ever see housing costs drop like you want them too. To the era where you made $40K and your house cost $70K. Those times are long gone and will never return. You might see a drop in the downturns, sure, but soon as that shit is over they will start to rise right back up again.
 
TJT

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Alpha said:
Got locked in with a new build at 4.75, 5 bd/3.5 bath 2700sqft outside of San Antonio. They were running deals for 3.99 a month ago but we just missed that. Didn't have to put down any points or anything, maybe cause we are using a VA loan?
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Damn bro, I got 4.9 on a conventional in Austin area in August. That seems only slightly better with the VA. My first house I bought on VA loan and I got a solid 1.5% lower than market rate in 2015.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Love the housing crashes! Prices up 12% yoy . Nobody gives a shit about monthly changes. We aren’t even close to being flat let alone down. Funny watching you guys get this with inflation but then sounding like Biden’s inflation take with housing.
Click to expand...
Data is data. Whether it leads to a long term trend or is just a couple of data points that are anomalies is unknown. Just because you think monthly data has no value doesnt mean everyone does. Lots of "experts" were laughing at people questioning the mortgage market in 06/07. Actually make that all the experts. Until they werent laughing.

Im not equating this to that. I am just saying looking at data requires an open mind to what the data might be saying.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Haus said:
This is part of my current dilema. As I have mentioned around here the long term Chez Haus goal is to buy some land (probably 20-50 acres) out away from town, build a house and a side home for my mom to live in. The funding is the question. I have my home (almost paid off), and my mom's home (paid off since the mid 70's) here in Dallas. I could sell them to pretty easily finance this goal, or I could turn them into rentals, and finance the farm.

Problem is how much I could sell them for is dropping, and how much I can borrow for is going up in cost. My hopes at this point are for a crescendo in real estate price pain (i.e. a real crash), then buy cheap so higher interest doesn't slaughter me and I can use the two houses as rentals to offset some/all costs. Just don't know if I'll get that lucky with the timing. I have enough capital right now in reserve to drop a sizable down payment on said farm if I didn't want to sell the current home, which would still be optimal as having a place to live while building a house and all.



I have a friend who just got married, it entailed her moving to her "dream city" of NYC to live with her man. They were buying a condo there while interest rates were going up and it was killing them... And now she's trying to sell her house in Dallas and has already had to drop price on it once so she's getting it, as they would say, coming and going right now. She's owned the house just long enough that I think she's still going to be profitable on the transaction, just not as profitable as she would have liked.
Click to expand...
Moving to NYC. She gets everything she deserves. Its such a shithole.

That being said, she doesnt have a lot of great options. Whether housing stabilizes/ turns back up or not, i dont envision mortgage rates being accomodating any time in the near future. People who locked in fixed rates the last couple of years are in great shape long term. Everyone else... Not so much.
 
Lanx

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Moving to NYC. She gets everything she deserves. Its such a shithole.

That being said, she doesnt have a lot of great options. Whether housing stabilizes/ turns back up or not, i dont envision mortgage rates being accomodating any time in the near future. People who locked in fixed rates the last couple of years are in great shape long term. Everyone else... Not so much.
Click to expand...
moving to nyc in a condo, lets be real she's probably dumb enough to get a midtown condo too. i'm not saying condos are bad, moved my mom into a condo after selling the old house, but thats a condo in bklyn on the jewy side, so it's a nice place (they even have fake jewy popo patrolling to keep the blacks out)

but a condo in midtown? thats just stupid
 
OU Ariakas

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Housing needs to be affordable to make sure that there is an "American Dream" to strive for if you are in the lower class.

HOWEVER, that does not mean that housing in large cities needs to be affordable.

We need a shift in the culture where small/medium sized companies go to small, affordable towns and workers follow them there. Where costs are lower and you have more invested in the success of the community.
 
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Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Data is data. Whether it leads to a long term trend or is just a couple of data points that are anomalies is unknown. Just because you think monthly data has no value doesnt mean everyone does. Lots of "experts" were laughing at people questioning the mortgage market in 06/07. Actually make that all the experts. Until they werent laughing.

Im not equating this to that. I am just saying looking at data requires an open mind to what the data might be saying.
Click to expand...
I have no issue with the data whatsoever, it's the extrapolation I poke at.
 
Tmac

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Khane said:
Well, the prices are adjusting as the interest rates keep rising. That's the market at work.

This isn't exactly surprising. At least... it shouldn't be.
Click to expand...

I've been looking at home prices every day for like two years in my area.

Prices on a $450,000 home have moved like $20k with an increase of 4% interest. Nobody's going to be buying homes until they actually make some aggressive changes. And this isn't conjecture. I'm watching the same houses stay on the market for months w minimal drops in price. Bunch of real estate agents gonna be looking for work in the next six months.
 
Blazin

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OU Ariakas said:
Housing needs to be affordable to make sure that there is an "American Dream" to strive for if you are in the lower class.

HOWEVER, that does not mean that housing in large cities needs to be affordable.

We need a shift in the culture where small/medium sized companies go to small, affordable towns and workers follow them there. Where costs are lower and you have more invested in the success of the community.
Click to expand...
I believe we need a tectonic shift in how we build homes. Homes are built primarily the same way since the industrial revolution. We have increased energy efficiency but it's an industry that needs just completely revamped from the ground up. The issue with this is that the consumer is very stubborn about changes in homes. Our expectations are deeply rooted in what a home should be, how it's set up, how it looks, etc.

The labor and materials that go into a home is too intensive and costly, the manufactured home was the right idea but very poorly executed. Manufacturing holds the keys but it may take a prolonged period of unaffordable homes and a tragic housing shortage to pave the way for the necessary change. Humans don't like solving problems until they hit a more critical mass and we are on the path.
 
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Haus

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Blazin said:
I believe we need a tectonic shift in how we build homes. Homes are built primarily the same way since the industrial revolution. We have increased energy efficiency but it's an industry that needs just completely revamped from the ground up. The issue with this is that the consumer is very stubborn about changes in homes. Our expectations are deeply rooted in what a home should be, how it's set up, how it looks, etc.

The labor and materials that go into a home is too intensive and costly, the manufactured home was the right idea but very poorly executed. Manufacturing holds the keys but it may take a prolonged period of unaffordable homes and a tragic housing shortage to pave the way for the necessary change. Humans don't like solving problems until they hit a more critical mass and we are on the path.
Click to expand...
See, you want modern houses... I want to buy land and essentially build a castle , but with modern energy and efficiency technology.

CastleMagic Castle Plans

A castle builder's site of castle plans
castlemagic.com

Love their concept, hate the fact that it looks like their site was designed in 1992...
 
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OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Blazin said:
I believe we need a tectonic shift in how we build homes. Homes are built primarily the same way since the industrial revolution. We have increased energy efficiency but it's an industry that needs just completely revamped from the ground up. The issue with this is that the consumer is very stubborn about changes in homes. Our expectations are deeply rooted in what a home should be, how it's set up, how it looks, etc.

The labor and materials that go into a home is too intensive and costly, the manufactured home was the right idea but very poorly executed. Manufacturing holds the keys but it may take a prolonged period of unaffordable homes and a tragic housing shortage to pave the way for the necessary change. Humans don't like solving problems until they hit a more critical mass and we are on the path.
Click to expand...

We have also had a real issue with what a "starter" home should look like. A newlywed couple with no kids does not need a 3000 sq ft 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with a bonus room, media room, and second master suite; they need a 1000 sq ft 2 or 3 beds and 1 or 1/2 baths and no extra rooms. However, since the start home market now looks like the former, no builders are building new versions of the latter.

So people that complain that their parents made 40k a year and bought a house for 70k they don't realize that the house their parents bought was 900 sq ft with no amenities. If someone today made 60k a year they could buy a true starter home for 130k and it would be functionally the same situation.
 
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