Investing General Discussion

I'll probably close my shorts tomorrow, but not buying anything until Wednesday (most likely).

On actionalerts just now, Cramer was recommending we avoid the 1st dip and consider buying the 2nd.

Picking an arbitrary day to buy in is nonsense. We could bounce hard overnight and you've missed great prices.

The key is buy starter positions at key levels of support, leaving critical cash on hand in case we move lower. Like today I buy 50 shares XYZ stock at the 100D, but knowing key levels below that for adds. Next key support, I am going 100 shares, etc etc. until the real turn happens where I can throw an additional 200-400 shares when the acual market turn happens. Even when "full sized" into an individual name, it is never more than 10% of my overall portfolio.

This works for me, but its crucial you know your support levels and aware of overall market action. Don't go blindly buying things because you think they are cheap. Buy into technical levels. Do this with only high quality stocks with good fundamentals behind them. That is the best way to price your way into a new position in a selling market.

Imagine your buy levels like a pyramid top down buying into weakness. Seems counterintuitive, but it works.. only .. if you really know your technicals.

Jysin said:

Picking an arbitrary day to buy in is nonsense. We could bounce hard overnight and you've missed great prices.

The key is buy starter positions at key levels of support, leaving critical cash on hand in case we move lower. Like today I buy 50 shares XYZ stock at the 100D, but knowing key levels below that for adds. Next key support, I am going 100 shares, etc etc. until the real turn happens where I can throw an additional 200-400 shares when the acual market turn happens. Even when "full sized" into an individual name, it is never more than 10% of my overall portfolio.

This works for me, but its crucial you know your support levels and aware of overall market action. Don't go blindly buying things because you think they are cheap. Buy into technical levels. Do this with only high quality stocks with good fundamentals behind them. That is the best way to price your way into a new position in a selling market.

Click to expand...

Except the Fed is speaking tomorrow. I get skittish on days like that...a good way to lose money. One wrong word or sentence and it blows up. Chartmaster was calling for a 7.5% drop in the S&P, we are at 6 now.

Every so often a blind squirrel finds an acorn. House sale fell through and I decided to do some work and move there. Liquidated some of my "play" money on Friday. Nothing to do with reading/timing the markets.

Shonuff said:

Except the Fed is speaking tomorrow. I get skittish on days like that...a good way to lose money. One wrong word or sentence and it blows up. Chartmaster was calling for a 7.5% drop in the S&P, we are at 6 now.

Click to expand...

So, for example. You've bought 50 shares of SPY today at the 100D. A solid support that has a real honest chance to bounce from. However, if we get the actual 10% correction, I have cash on hand for another 100 share add. If we get some panic meltdown to 20%, I still have another 200 shares cash to buy on top of that. Follow me? I am not bothered if we take off and rip higher immediately, or if we sell further into better pricing.

You can't ever realistically expect to time tops and bottoms. China could announce Evergrande bail out overnight and you've missed this entire ~6% swing low waiting for more downside that never comes.

Going in to today I thought the whole short term was going to hinge on the fed speaking this week. So much for that thought.

Sanrith Descartes said:

First order popped. Added NUE at $95

...

Click to expand...

I took the OCT monthly 100C. Got a $3 fill.

Shonuff said:

So S&P is down 6% in the last week, is it possible we are nearing the end, or headed down?

Click to expand...

My prediction was 10-20% drop in late September or October.

Jysin said:

So, for example. You've bought 50 shares of SPY today at the 100D. A solid support that has a real honest chance to bounce from. However, if we get the actual 10% correction, I have cash on hand for another 100 share add. If we get some panic meltdown to 20%, I still have another 200 shares cash to buy on top of that. Follow me? I am not bothered if we take off and rip higher immediately, or if we sell further into better pricing.

You can't ever realistically expect to time tops and bottoms. China could announce Evergrande bail out overnight and you've missed this entire ~6% swing low waiting for more downside that never comes.

Click to expand...

I get it, but there are other considerations, like the debt ceiling. My goal is to short down another 1%, and then sit to the side with 20% cash and reevalute.

Big Phoenix said:

Someone repost that picture from a few pages ago of the calculated trader.

AMD is looking to be a nice target right now. At $100.5, down 22% from ath just two months ago.

Click to expand...

AMD is tempting.

Jysin said:

Picking an arbitrary day to buy in is nonsense.

Click to expand...

From Cramer today on actionalerts:

"JEFF MARKS: Let's just go back to the market. So again, big sell off today. Now, the oscillator that you closely follow is at negative 3.46 as of Friday. Still not oversold territory. So you're thinking here it still might be a little bit too early to buy?


JIM CRAMER: Yes. I mean, we have discovered in sell-offs is that until it's minus five and you clear the seasonal hurdle, you can't buy. I think we'll be up to minus five. The seasonal hurdle, which I said was going to start the 17th. People anticipated that, but the seasonal hurdle is probably going to be pushed up four days, which would typically mean that you should be thinking about October 10, if you want to be precise. Precise was September 17. October 10 before you have real stability here. And that's a lot.


JEFF MARKS: So let's break this down real quick. You were looking at the second week of October as a potential buy point, but because people did all that selling in anticipation of September 17, we might see that target pull forward.


JIM CRAMER: Look, there's a lot of stories where there's a chink. I mean, so let's take AbbVie. Oh, well, that yields X. We should buy that. It's a very inexpensive stock. Yes, but then they blew one of their key drugs. Now, we don't know whether it's really blown or not."