Investing General Discussion

Jysin

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The last hour of market activity was distinctly down from what I could see, contrary to the last few days I believe.

Does this feed into your prediction of a bigger down tomorrow followed by a bounce back or more of a slow and ongoing downward trend?

This slow bleeding typically just means more downside. That said, even with this close way down here, we could pivot higher and this would essentially just be a higher low on the daily action. The real move we want is a break below last weeks lows, some panic to set in, which would trigger quick downward price action. Capitulation and emotionally driven selling allows us to buy into nicely oversold levels. There is where you want to become aggressive. In the panic driven selling, the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater and this is where the strongest names in the market get sold for no fundamental reasons.

It is far too early to call which direction we are ultimately going to go, but this close was certainly weak.
 
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Jysin

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Here is a visual representation of what I am looking at for the SPY daily chart. The orange line is the 100 day simple moving average. We tested and held this level multiple times today. Another break of this and the low of last week's 428.86 would likely fuel a bigger move to the downside. But as you can see here, we are still in no man’s land in the middle and above strong support. Does it look weak today? Absolutely. I have bought some names on the basis of this support, but still have tons of cash on hand should we break these levels and move lower.



SPY low.JPG
 
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Jysin

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And for perspective, we closed today only 4.5% down from the highs earlier this month.

Despite how down this market "feels" over the last few weeks, we have only really retraced back to July price levels.

Under the hood, there is a lot more going on as a bunch of individual index names are well into 10%+ correction territory. The weighting, however, has kept us buoyant.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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FTEC is actually positioned on a pivot here (27Jul, 19Aug, 20Sep lows). Doesn't hurt to put an order in, but leave plenty of room to add below.

Buying support levels is good. Buying just because things are down, not so much. Have a plan if it goes either way.
I always pick the worst days to be with clients. I set an order to add to FTEC around the DMA at $117. It didn't pop off. Maybe tomorrow.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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It's always a challenge to buy pullbacks when the market has been this hot for this long. I just stick to the averages on names I want to own. And be very careful about stocks that had parabolic moves like NVDA. I want it but even with these downs it's still only at the 50 DMA.

The only buy I had today was adding to PYPL. Nothing else hot my marks. Just gotta be patient.
 

Shonuff

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LOL, reviewing the tape I realize I'm an idiot. Turned a $600 gain into a 318 loss on JETS. Signal changed at 8:44, I was long, signal said short it, and I decided the market was wrong. I had 7 or 8 minutes to get out from under it, instead I sat here all day.

When I have days like this, its because I decide the market is wrong and dig in my heels. "It's a good value," I tell myself.

I should have shorted the QQQ, like I was thinking to do anyway.
 
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Asshat Foler

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Speaking of transparency I was think of just following congress members stock plays and found this website. With their legal insider trading I wonder if just mirroring their plays would be the best way to go. Pelosi’s husband is magically a master investor.

A pelosi index fund 🤔🤔
 
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Fogel

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Even if they do disclose their trades, there's usually a 30 day or so period before they're actually disclosed I believe
 

Big Phoenix

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Futures pretty green, let's see how much were let down by opening bell.
 
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Hateyou

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People feeling the need to buy the dip is so strong we can’t even go a few red days in a row.
 

Blazin

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Absolutely, gotta buy dips.. until it doesn't work anymore.

Given up nearly 10 points on the S&P since Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes 's post. Going to be an interesting open.
433 on SPY is going to be line in the sand this morning, we may dip down and test it, if we hold it's going to try to bounce. I do think some degree of patience is going to be needed here. Weakness thru Oct won't surprise me, not saying falling of a cliff weakness but that we are going to chop, and maybe progressively work our way a bit lower.
 

Jysin

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433 on SPY is going to be line in the sand this morning, we may dip down and test it, if we hold it's going to try to bounce. I do think some degree of patience is going to be needed here. Weakness thru Oct won't surprise me, not saying falling of a cliff weakness but that we are going to chop, and maybe progressively work our way a bit lower.
433.63 was the lowest close last week and we weren't too far off from that last night. 433.24 is the 100D daily moving average which is big support. So yes, these two levels will be our support today (more so the 100D). Hopefully we bounce and move higher, or, failing that, 428.86 was the intraday low of the big sell day last week. Failing that would be confirmation of a downtrend in my eyes.

We aren't really gapped up much at all above yesterday's close and have been selling premarket for the last 40+ minutes. Gotta watch things closely today.