Investing General Discussion

Furry

Furry

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Gravel said:
I swear I've posted that one before.

I like it because people significantly over-estimate the probability they go broke, while ignoring how much more likely they are to end up dead first. It's a good reality check for people who could retire already that maybe they don't have as many years as they think.

Everyone always talks about working too few years, but no one does about too many.
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Charts like that are scary for someone with my family. There's exactly two category of people in my family tree. Those that keel over at 60 and those that keel over in their early 100s. Absolutely no overlap. I've seen what happens to my family members that make it to their 90s and 100s with no money. Sure we take care of them, but I'd rather at least have some ability to take care of myself.
 
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Shonuff

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And if I held my short another hour or so, it would have been another 1k on MRNA. That's fine, they are so irrational on that stock that it could've gone the other way.

You never go broke taking a profit.
 
Cad

Cad

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Gravel said:
I swear I've posted that one before.

I like it because people significantly over-estimate the probability they go broke, while ignoring how much more likely they are to end up dead first. It's a good reality check for people who could retire already that maybe they don't have as many years as they think.

Everyone always talks about working too few years, but no one does about too many.
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Ending up dead is definitely a reason to retire early rather than grinding out a few more years. Even though I am pretty young and healthy, you never know what can happen.

On the other hand, you want to have enough so if you do live to 90, you're not broke. I think the key is to moderate your spending, especially at first. Say you RE at 50, between 50 and 60 if you can moderate your spending your principal continues to grow and by 70 you probably have so much you can do anything. If you don't moderate at first and 1929 happens when you're 60, you can be in trouble.

At a 2-3% WR, I have no idea what I'd even spend that much money on except just throwing it away. Good problem to have I guess.
 
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Borzak

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Oil hovering at $80/barrel now headed up. Seeing lots of predictions for $100/barrel in the near future. One lease I have now on land I no longer own is already producing, the second I got contacted last week to lease. So they're already already trying to get ahead of the curve with leases on areas not currently producing.
 
Furry

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Cad said:
On the other hand, you want to have enough so if you do live to 90, you're not broke. I think the key is to moderate your spending, especially at first. Say you RE at 50, between 50 and 60 if you can moderate your spending your principal continues to grow and by 70 you probably have so much you can do anything. If you don't moderate at first and 1929 happens when you're 60, you can be in trouble.
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I somewhat disagree with this. No matter what my financial situation at 45, I'm going to be eyeing a 10 year retirement to pursue stuff I enjoy while still healthy enough to enjoy it. I'm more willing to work a side job at 60 than I am to be stuck with a job during my midlife crisis.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Put some orders in pre-market never expecting them to get this close. AMZN 3175 almost popped.

China/Taiwan and Oil looking towards $100 were probably not on a lot of folks dance cards. US Shale producers being like... Fuck yeah boys.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Zog said:


Lets get the party started.
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I wonder if #BeijingBiden will answer the phone. An actual Chinese aggression against Taiwan that goes unanswered by US could be a market event of pretty serious consequence.
 
Furry

Furry

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Put some orders in pre-market never expecting them to get this close. AMZN 3175 almost popped.

China/Taiwan and Oil looking towards $100 were probably not on a lot of folks dance cards. US Shale producers being like... Fuck yeah boys.
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Gas was 2.65$ last night. Felt bad that it's getting so high.
 
Zog

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Taiwan semi being unable to get chips out is on my mind, im reluctant to short the S&P after it being sold this much already but god damn its the right call if things escalate.

The fed always comes in and sends that shit to the moon after a point, I cant trade with this manipulation!
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Pure tech looks like it has about 3% of air between it and the 200-DMA at this point.

1633359598867.png
 
Shonuff

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Put some orders in pre-market never expecting them to get this close. AMZN 3175 almost popped.

China/Taiwan and Oil looking towards $100 were probably not on a lot of folks dance cards. US Shale producers being like... Fuck yeah boys.
Click to expand...
I'm not buying anything not travel and leisure oriented right now. Screw tech.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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LOL at the Twitter Bears tweeting how they have been sitting on 100% cash for months waiting for today.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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My current orders. Came close with AMZN, FDX and NVDA but the day is still quite young.

edit: FDX hit.

1633360767154.png
 
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