Investing General Discussion
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Sanrith Descartes
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Jysin
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Whatever it takes to get catalysts moving a stock. Had a few PMs with some other reopening traders about this over the last couple weeks. I called exactly this. Media sensationalism will drive the stock prices lower on all of these names. Most people are emotional traders. It's all a part of seeing the bigger picture.
Blazin
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Not a bad presentation but it there is nothing of note, he explains how a crash would come from tightening then goes on to explain we have a fed who won't tighten. This is not 29 maybe it will be something far worse, we simply don't know how this ends. Hell they may want to replace Powell because he is not dovish enough which may just make this guys head explode. Everything in the video could have been said in 2013. The fundamentals are not wrong but provides no insight to when the music might stop. For all we know we are the early stages of two decades more of madness. Only thing we can do is closely watch for changes in dynamics, because the worst thing you could do is go to cash when your largest fear is inflation. It's okay to follow some fear porn but just add a serious dose of patience. Bad things will come just like they always have after strong bullish cycles but there is no reason to guess at their timing.
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Blazin
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Bullard is always the hawk, they are going to be taking action more dovish than his position. He wants hikes next year, each meeting we will have to watch to see if he starts converting people to his side.
Jysin
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It's the politicing that has me wondering if any hands will be forced. Biden and other senators openly criticizing Fed policy and it is getting louder. Whether that is right or wrong is another topic altogether, but people are getting fed up with the current situation.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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WYNN
WYNN closed above $98 (100 DMA is $97) and is pushing $100 in the premarket. It "could" be smooth sailing up to the 200 DMA at $112.
WYNN closed above $98 (100 DMA is $97) and is pushing $100 in the premarket. It "could" be smooth sailing up to the 200 DMA at $112.
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Blazin
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Without getting into the political side of it the pressure from the WH is to stay dovish despite the fact hawkishness would fix the inflation. Politicians won't switch to wanting higher rates until things hit a real crescendo with inflation that they can no longer ignore it. MMT policy wogs are going to fight back against any talk of tightening. It really is going to be interesting over the next year to see how inflation behaves and how the Fed tries to act in control while doing the least amount it feels it can get away with.
Jysin
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Goldman Sachs’s Top Trades Reveal Uncomfortable Truth
The Wall Street bank’s calls for the year ahead implicitly acknowledge that the headwinds for the U.S. stock market are becoming much stiffer.
www.bloomberg.com
Goldman Sachs calling 4900 S&P by end of 2022. Next year is going to be murky at best for sure.
Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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We are up over 20% the S&P has rarely been down after being up 20% the previous year and normally it's quite a good year. I'll see if I can find the stats on it.Goldman Sachs’s Top Trades Reveal Uncomfortable Truth
The Wall Street bank’s calls for the year ahead implicitly acknowledge that the headwinds for the U.S. stock market are becoming much stiffer.
Goldman Sachs calling 4900 S&P by end of 2022. Next year is going to be murky at best for sure.
..edit correction
Sanrith Descartes
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Jysin
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Rabble rabble something something "past performance does not equal future results"...
I am not taking a bearish approach. But citing past history when we have literally had unprecedented money printing and the steepest index growth / lowest interest rate / cash rich companies / buybacks in history. I think trying to compare 2020/2021 returns based on previous history is a bit foolish.
Just my 2c, but I fully admit I am still an amateur at this. My gut says that there's a bumpy ride ahead. Especially with some significant risk catalysts on the horizon. (Interest rate hikes / China property implosion / etc)
I am not taking a bearish approach. But citing past history when we have literally had unprecedented money printing and the steepest index growth / lowest interest rate / cash rich companies / buybacks in history. I think trying to compare 2020/2021 returns based on previous history is a bit foolish.
Just my 2c, but I fully admit I am still an amateur at this. My gut says that there's a bumpy ride ahead. Especially with some significant risk catalysts on the horizon. (Interest rate hikes / China property implosion / etc)
Sanrith Descartes
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I think there also needs to be the context of the various types of investors/traders. For someone who is long equities for the next 20 years or so, what happens in the next 6-12 months is sort of irrelevant. For traders, however, a period of extreme chop or an extended downturn can have a significant impact.
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Blazin
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So if we follow a median year and end this year around 4800~ we could be looking at S&P 5400 EOY 22 . What I find funny is when the WS banks set their targets low they NEVER have the conviction to stick with it. For example if we his 4950 in March GS will be out there upping it to 5200 or something. Which always seems to ignore that how we end the year says little about the ride we take to get there. If you think we are flat next year that doesn't mean we aren't up 15% at some point.
