Investing General Discussion

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Mist

Mist

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LachiusTZ said:
The market is completely detached from the economy
The dollar is dying
Valuations vs earnings are in fantasy land
Manufacturing, jobs in general are lacking
Value of labor plummeting
Govt going ham on social justice spending
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The market is completely detached from the economy - Has been for a while, but it's definitely getting worse. This is what happens when you give rich people infinite money to gamble with.
The dollar is dying - Maybe? Hard to say. Crypto is the first real threat to the dollar ever, and crypto does not have a fleet of submarines and aircraft carriers to back it up.
Valuations vs earnings are in fantasy land - See #1
Manufacturing, jobs in general are lacking - There's 10 million unfilled jobs, so no.
Value of labor plummeting - Opposite of that is happening.
Govt going ham on social justice spending - Build Back Better has already been cut to shit and even cut to shit it will still never pass, so what spending are you talking about?

So at best you are half right.
 
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LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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That bbb is riddled with social justice "not for you whitey" spending.

The value of labor in dollars is rising, but the purchasing power of labor is falling. Has been for... Uh 40 years?

Manufacturing is going hard out of America again. Increasing regs with less pressure on imports...

The dollar isn't dying because of BTC, it's dying from printing / QE and other countries finally getting fed up with American bullshit.

I might be half right, but I doubt you will be the one to correct me
 
Zog

Zog

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Also to add: The dollar isn't dying at all, in fact its gaining strength relative to every other currency in the world. I post about this in the politics thread but inflation of currency is affecting other countries much more than the dollar is and with most of the worlds debt still being held in USD, it's hard to just say were all going to bitcoin! They still owe those debts and a lot of companies racked up some crazy amounts in 2020-2021.

1637366230383.png
 
Gravel

Gravel

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Mist said:
The market is completely detached from the economy - Has been for a while, but it's definitely getting worse. This is what happens when you give rich people infinite money to gamble with.
The dollar is dying - Maybe? Hard to say. Crypto is the first real threat to the dollar ever, and crypto does not have a fleet of submarines and aircraft carriers to back it up.
Valuations vs earnings are in fantasy land - See #1
Manufacturing, jobs in general are lacking - There's 10 million unfilled jobs, so no.
Value of labor plummeting - Opposite of that is happening.
Govt going ham on social justice spending - Build Back Better has already been cut to shit and even cut to shit it will still never pass, so what spending are you talking about?

So at best you are half right.
Click to expand...
Really I think the bulk of it can be explained by "too much money."

We're printing trillions that is injected into the economy and ultimately ends up in the market or company balance sheets. And the Fed is still injecting trillions more, and has been for a decade.
 
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Mist

Mist

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Zog said:
Also to add: The dollar isn't dying at all, in fact its gaining strength relative to every other currency in the world. I post about this in the politics thread but inflation of currency is affecting other countries much more than the dollar is and with most of the worlds debt still being held in USD, it's hard to just say were all going to bitcoin!
Click to expand...
Inflation in currencies around the world is certainly a main contributor to the growth of crypto currencies though.
 
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Mist

Mist

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Gravel said:
Really I think the bulk of it can be explained by "too much money."
Click to expand...
And too low interest rates. Inflation in housing costs is directly the result of low interest rates, real estate agents have just decided that they're going to take all the savings you're going to get over a 20-30 year mortgage at ridiculously low rates and they can just bake that cost into the upfront cost of the houses.
 
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LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Zog said:
Also to add: The dollar isn't dying at all, in fact its gaining strength relative to every other currency in the world. I post about this in the politics thread but inflation of currency is affecting other countries much more than the dollar is and with most of the worlds debt still being held in USD, it's hard to just say were all going to bitcoin! They still owe those debts and a lot of companies racked up some crazy amounts in 2020-2021.

View attachment 383435
Click to expand...

Yeah I know its been rally'ing for a while.

I'm pretty confident in 20yrs its gonna be either digital or really devalued.

Prolly both.

That Comp of the Currency chick terrifies me tbh.
 
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Big Phoenix

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Zog said:
This has a lot of similarities but with a much easier barrier of entry than the late 90s did. Now with basically "free trading" with payment for order flow in the palm of your hands, you have millions of people of all ages actively buying and selling stocks year round filling in gaps where there should definitely be a pullback but theres just an ocean of liquidity sloshing around all over and mostly getting put into household names that the everyday person knows. HD, AMC, GME, NVDA, AMD, INTL, AAPL, NFLX etc. without long term experience for how things are "supposed to be."
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The WSB/new trader crowd isnt driving Tesla to a trillion dollar market cap. They arent driving Nvidia to almost a trillion dollar market cap. They simply do not have the money to do such things. They make a fantastic scapegoat though.

The guy behind the video I linked the other day essentially says its all a shell game right now, market makers and large institutional traders are propping up the market via options to drive names like Amazon, Apple, Tesla etc. higher so that the indices move up no matter how bad they perform as a whole. Its what Blazin mentioned, majority of the NASDAQ retreated yet the NASDAQ is up?

IMO everyone knows we are facing serious financial and monetary problems but naturally wants to make as much money for as long as possible. The Politicians have a vested interest in kicking the can down the road as long as possible so it doesnt blow up on their end hence the SEC never investigating anyone but meme stock traders and the Fed acting like they will never raise interest rates.
 
Tmac

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LachiusTZ said:
I honestly fucking hate where the market is now. I don't have the knowledge to trade like some of you guys, don't have the time to get better so I can, so I'm stuck trying to put my money where I think is "correct".
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Then why would you trust that you know better? I mean even anecdotally why act as if you’re right and everyone else is wrong in this case if what you say is true and other here know more than you?
 
LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Tmac said:
Then why would you trust that you know better? I mean even anecdotally why act as if you’re right and everyone else is wrong in this case if what you say is true and other here know more than you?
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For true "trading"

I've done well enough when "investing" in things for a reason.

Trading and speculating are where I'm really deficient.

That's why my tsp is full common high risk, and it's gone nuts.

So while I have the pretense of being correct in my play money account, my 401k approximation is positioned quite the opposite.

And being correct doesn't really matter as much as being able to accurately anticipate the herd or having some sage like insight into an upcoming one off event. Or riding the snp. Lol
 
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Zog

Zog

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LachiusTZ said:
For true "trading"

I've done well enough when "investing" in things for a reason.

Trading and speculating are where I'm really deficient.

That's why my tsp is full common high risk, and it's gone nuts.

So while I have the pretense of being correct in my play money account, my 401k approximation is positioned quite the opposite.

And being correct doesn't really matter as much as being able to accurately anticipate the herd or having some sage like insight into an upcoming one off event. Or riding the snp. Lol
Click to expand...

Trading is all about charting and just meeting some criteria.

I only trade stocks I've watched for a long time, i know their behavior and i know what they do in relation to news.

Basically i watch for increased volume, without volume they go down and never have the chance to go up, if they go up it's such a piddly amount to not even be worth the daytrade.

Some people only trade tesla, some only trade a sector but have a few stocks.

Charting is a great way to figure out price action because a lot of traders use the same methods, it's a self fulfilling prophecy so to speak.

If you lack in knowledge for all the different patterns, id start there and then stalk a stock that normally has volume.

LEDS was a great example of a great stock that had crazy rallies on a almost set schedule. You knew that every other day this thing would jump 30% then dump at close and it did the same shit every week for like a month.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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If my favorite long term hold companies keep annoying me with a woke agenda, I may end up with a big Ole pile of cash pretty soon. 😡
 
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Hateyou

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Sanrith Descartes said:
If my favorite long term hold companies keep annoying me with a woke agenda, I may end up with a big Ole pile of cash pretty soon. 😡
Click to expand...
Every big company is like this now. Every one. Unless you want to invest in MyPillow you don’t have any choice.
 
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Borzak

Borzak

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Even ExxonMobil has had a takeover of greenie weenies on the board now.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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I actually have no idea what this means for the economy, as it seemed like the only thing anyone was hypothesizing about was when Powell was inevitably fired and what would happen when x person took over (like Brainard).
 
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