Tmac
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But, never investing in bonds is fundamentally counter to the philosophies of Buffet and Munger.
Investing General Discussion
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But, never investing in bonds is fundamentally counter to the philosophies of Buffet and Munger.
Sanrith Descartes
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Times and the markets have changed.
Let's say you get a treasury paying 3%. You make 3% a year safely.
Or you buy WMT, AAPL, or MSFT. Let's say you pay $100 a share. Counting dividends it has to rise to $101 in a year to equal the 3% bond. The bond has less risk, but not buly a huge amount. Bonds just don't work in today's investing environment.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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A lot of the "have bonds in your portfolio" advice came when bonds were in a sort of bubble for about 30 years.
Bonds sound great when they're paying out 4-5%. That era is long since past. Bonds are mostly a drag on your portfolio now.
Granted, part of this is because the equities markets are being propped up by QE and endless money over a more than decade long bull market. In my opinion, that trend can never end at this point or it means economic collapse. So bonds will just always be turds.
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Sanrith Descartes
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For nearly a century, a 20 or 30 basis point move in the market was a "wow" moment. This was an environment where a good bond yield mattered. Today we barely bat an eye at a 2% market move.
Blazin
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Masakari
Which way, western man?
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I should add that independent of the historical correlation between an increase in Fed rates & overspeculative markets (and arbitrary triggering mechanisms), part of my concern is because politicians are jumping ship too, no one wants to be left holding the bag, and inflation is insane right now. Not to mention Trump indicated that this is what would happen under a Biden Presidency. You can take it to the bank that shit's going to collapse soon. I don't give a shit if I'm not holding out for every last drop of gains, my brain isn't focused on that. I am focused on walking away from the table because I know the Casino roof is about to collapse in on everyone and I'm not going to lose what I've earned thus far.
Sanrith Descartes
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Said every market timer ever. Let us know next January how your pile of cash did against the SPY in 2022. Even shitty GS analysts are predicting +7% this year. And GS analyst blow dick.
Masakari
Which way, western man?
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lol, they do actually blow dick with how woke those faggots are now. I've read enough financial literature from the godfathers of finance to know when the chickens are coming home to roost, it's always the same story.
Furry
🌭🍔🇺🇦✌️SLAVA UKRAINI!✌️🇺🇦🍔🌭
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If you're not an active investor, S&P 100%. Mix in the amount of tech ETF you feel is appropriate and the close your account. Check once a year until retirement.
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Tmac
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Just reading through The Intelligent Investor w excerpts from Buffet.
I realize bonds are NOT attractive rn (Buffet's opinion included) because they're not, but that doesn't mean they're "never" attractive. My question was mostly pointed at when bonds might be attractive again.
The Intelligent Investor is interesting bc it recognizes that the market always changes and no strategy is 100% all the time. Bonds are a perfect example of this kind of, "Was once a good strategy, is no longer a good strategy, will one day be a good strategy again," sentiment.
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Masakari
Which way, western man?
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Bonds will be attractive again when stocks tank hard and aren't producing incentivizing returns for investors. And Ben Graham's right, financial markets are extremely dynamic, especially in today's interconnected world. Understanding historical drivers for this or that goes a long way in anticipating the future, some of it really is cyclical, although the past decade has shattered a lot of fundamental knowledge of financial behavior (in part because of continuous government bail-outs and reluctance to raise interest rates).
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Got stopped out of DLR. Huh, last I looked I was up, but the chart for the last 4 days is like a knife. It's also real close to the 200DMA. Wonder if I should rebuy or look at something else?
PSA (mini storage REIT) came up in the comparison charts. Mini storages are massive profit makers in my experience, and its chart looks like it might be owned by the mafia (goes up like clockwork). Anyone have any thoughts?
PSA (mini storage REIT) came up in the comparison charts. Mini storages are massive profit makers in my experience, and its chart looks like it might be owned by the mafia (goes up like clockwork). Anyone have any thoughts?
Sanrith Descartes
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Even if you are an active trader 100% S&P is still the right answer
Some of us are just willing to pay the opportunity cost to play at being a Wall Streeter.
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Politicians aren't jumping ship, see my post about Pelosi's call options
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Sanrith Descartes
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I know something about the self storage industry. They are essentially yield plays. They need X% of occupancy to make their nut and the rest is profit. The downside to them is that once they hit 100% occupancy they are essentially capped so have a firm ceiling on growth.
Shonuff
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I did go long. Now, the last few days, if you shorted TSLA you'd have made about $100 a share.
Sanrith Descartes
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
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I shorted TSLA for a slight scalp. Still on the red on the whole on TSLA. After 2 bearish positions I believe my next one will be bullish.