Investing General Discussion

Blazin · Jan 22, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
So glad I got my new fake Twitter account up. GETTR's lack of finance talk is a deal breaker.

somebody is really bad at math

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 22, 2022

Blazin said:
somebody is really bad at math

Maybe he meant legal Americans. :trollface:

LachiusTZ · Jan 22, 2022

Everyone remember how six months ago, a year ago, the thread was talking about how STONKS GO UP, not tied to economy, inflation, market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent?

Its frequently said we are at minimum 6mo ahead of the general concensus.

I havent dumped my TSP, but I have been thinking about it for damn near a year, more the past six mo, and daily the past 2wks.

Is anyone here, that holds the opinion, "time in market" etc, able to say they were trading material amounts from 2000-2010? Because if it takes 14 years, a decade, etc to recoup initial investment, the time in market mantra doesnt really hold. Esp for those first 3-4 years when its just grinding its way down.

Blazin · Jan 22, 2022

LachiusTZ said:
Everyone remember how six months ago, a year ago, the thread was talking about how STONKS GO UP, not tied to economy, inflation, market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent?

Its frequently said we are at minimum 6mo ahead of the general concensus.

I havent dumped my TSP, but I have been thinking about it for damn near a year, more the past six mo, and daily the past 2wks.

Is anyone here, that holds the opinion, "time in market" etc, able to say they were trading material amounts from 2000-2010? Because if it takes 14 years, a decade, etc to recoup initial investment, the time in market mantra doesnt really hold. Esp for those first 3-4 years when its just grinding its way down.

I traded my first stock in 1994. I would say the 2000 crash hurt me more relative to my wealth at the time but it was not "material" by how I look at it today. What you are talking about is not holding through a secular bear market. Which I'm right on board with and have no intentions of doing so. I see very little evidence we are headed into a secular bear trend. When the evidence of one appears you won't get a chance to get out at the top, but there will be time to get out 5-15% down from the high. That only feels shitty until the market is down 50% and you feel awesome about it. I get the fear and desire to preserve I really do, but I also know you are likely feeling a lot of negative energy around the culture war it's almost impossible not to and while I don't want to discuss politics in this thread it does have an effect on our psyche and how we feel about the nations future prospects.

I think moving to a defensive position like that could be a mistake. We may very well be headed for long term trouble and that decision really needs to be weighed and have nothing to do with what the market did today or this week.

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 22, 2022

LachiusTZ said:
Everyone remember how six months ago, a year ago, the thread was talking about how STONKS GO UP, not tied to economy, inflation, market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent?

Its frequently said we are at minimum 6mo ahead of the general concensus.

I havent dumped my TSP, but I have been thinking about it for damn near a year, more the past six mo, and daily the past 2wks.

Is anyone here, that holds the opinion, "time in market" etc, able to say they were trading material amounts from 2000-2010? Because if it takes 14 years, a decade, etc to recoup initial investment, the time in market mantra doesnt really hold. Esp for those first 3-4 years when its just grinding its way down.

During those periods I was putting my cash into my 401k each and every week. I wasn't trading. No one can predict the market's future. All we can do is look backwards to see where we have been. If you bought at the height of the real-estate madness the S&P500 was at 1,500. It took 5 years to recover. After you hit breakeven in 2012, over the next 5 years it went to 2700 in 2017. That was a 80% gain over 5 years and an 80% gain over ten years. So call it 8% a year over those ten years (with the first five being 0%). Now fast forward to yesterday. Close at 4397. Up 193% in 15 years. Almost 13% a year on average. Even buying at the top right before the second or third greatest market disaster in our history, you are still turning a 13% annual profit over 15 years.

If you bought in 1990 and rode out the dot-com crash, the great recession AND the Coronachan crash, 32 years later you are up 1,232%. That is 38.5% a year averaged over a working lifetime of 35 years.

I cant tell you what tomorrow, next year or the next decade will bring us. All I can do is look backwards because that has already happened, The past says ride the shit out because time in market is shown to be the greatest single variable we have.

YMMV

Khane · Jan 22, 2022

Oh I can tell you what tomorrow will bring

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 22, 2022

Khane said:
Oh I can tell you what tomorrow will bring

I am feeling decidedly unstressed about Monday. I got no cash position left so I got no stress about what to do with it. I am along for the ride.

Volto! · Jan 22, 2022

When you guys talk about pulling your money out in the event of a legit bear market, does this mean pulling out money from all investments, including 401k and Roth contributions? If so, how does one convert a Roth or 401k to a cash account? Im assuming this doesn’t involve actually cashing out your investments but perhaps I’m wrong. I hope this question makes sense.

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 22, 2022

Volto! said:
When you guys talk about pulling your money out in the event of a legit bear market, does this mean pulling out money from all investments, including 401k and Roth contributions? If so, how does one convert a Roth or 401k to a cash account? Im assuming this doesn’t involve actually cashing out your investments but perhaps I’m wrong. I hope this question makes sense.

Every type of account has a "cash position" in it. This is for uninvested funds. I believe when people talk about going to cash they mean selling equities/bonds and just sitting on the uninvested cash position it created/

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 22, 2022

BTC keeps printing new lows. $34.5k just now. Maybe they should adopt the whole (markets closed on weekends) thing. It would be less stressful.

Zog · Jan 22, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
BTC keeps printing new lows. $34.5k just now. Maybe they should adopt the whole (markets closed on weekends) thing. It would be less stressful.

Its great because it's like a futures chart for the real markets

LachiusTZ · Jan 22, 2022

Zog said:
Apple with a clear head and shoulders is concerning. I see at least touching the 100D, apple has more support than pretty much anything in the market but how many are going to gamble before earnings? If everyone is going to risk off and get in after earnings it might see the 200D before then and if they get the same results and guidance as Netflix it's a clear sign the economy is slowing and we're in for a ride.

If Apple can't beat expectations over the Christmas quarter this market is fucked.
View attachment 394295

I mean maybe, but I wouldnt buy it. 150 or 135 would be my "FIRST WEEK OF USING CHARTS YOU GUYS ARE GONNA LOVE ME GOING FORWARD" opinion.

Sanrith Descartes said:

One of my all time favorite memes.

LachiusTZ · Jan 22, 2022

Blazin said:
while I don't want to discuss politics in this thread

At this point they are completely linked.

The joys of fucking corporatism.

We have EDI programs everywhere affecting the ability for revenue generation, massive volumes of raw spending blowing out of every seem of the federal govt, politics driving a large portion of spending decisions in the govt as well as running corp boards, sentiment seems to have become intertwined between financial and politics (rightfully so at this point), large portions of the vocal public wanting to destroy the system while others are full on mega corp cultists.

And thats just what I could come up with as I was typing.

Back to Apple . . .

Am I reading this wrong?

Because it looks like there is volume at $160, 20/50/100 DMA all at or below 200 DMA, not much volume between 160 and 150, etc.

I could do some clicking and dropping lines all over it, but anyway, yeah, I dunno.

Zog · Jan 22, 2022

LachiusTZ said:
At this point they are completely linked.

The joys of fucking corporatism.

We have EDI programs everywhere affecting the ability for revenue generation, massive volumes of raw spending blowing out of every seem of the federal govt, politics driving a large portion of spending decisions in the govt as well as running corp boards, sentiment seems to have become intertwined between financial and politics (rightfully so at this point), large portions of the vocal public wanting to destroy the system while others are full on mega corp cultists.

And thats just what I could come up with as I was typing.

Back to Apple . . .

Am I reading this wrong?

View attachment 394318

Because it looks like there is volume at $160, 20/50/100 DMA all at or below 200 DMA, not much volume between 160 and 150, etc.

I could do some clicking and dropping lines all over it, but anyway, yeah, I dunno.

157 is the 100D at this moment with most buyers at 160, which in aftermarket closed at mid 161. That's why it's support is important to hold that as support or it goes straight to 150ish with the 200D at 147.

There's a lot of fear right now.

There's a good chance the 100D will break just because people that bought in at the 200D level will want to take profit "just in case".

LachiusTZ · Jan 22, 2022

Whew boy, apparently exponential moving averages, arent daily moving averages!

A week ago when going through "scripts", I found one that wasnt shit, but called EMA, figured that was "close enough" . . . it "looked off, but approximate"

Lol

LachiusTZ · Jan 22, 2022

Past week I've been thinking "Man, its at the 100d / 200d, wtf are these dudes talking about". Lol

Anyway, cant get the script create function to work in browser mode, will tinker w/ it later, but unless the volume indicators are wrong, and very well could be because I'm maybe 2hrs into this whole charts / technicals thing.

Jysin · Jan 22, 2022

AAPL earnings will have a pretty big weight on the indices. Remember in December AAPL just kept powering onwards and upwards? These were the headlines at the time:

Q4 earnings should tell all.

Fogel · Jan 22, 2022

Volto! said:
When you guys talk about pulling your money out in the event of a legit bear market, does this mean pulling out money from all investments, including 401k and Roth contributions? If so, how does one convert a Roth or 401k to a cash account? Im assuming this doesn’t involve actually cashing out your investments but perhaps I’m wrong. I hope this question makes sense.

Say you own SPY in your 401k, you'd sell all your SPY and then it'd be sitting as cash in your 401k, but you haven't actually pulled it out of the account.

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