Investing General Discussion

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swayze22

swayze22

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Gravel said:
It's a long march down.

We'll probably get a few green days, but I doubt this is over.

I still think we see a 25-35% fall from the top (S&P in the low 3000's) before we start recovering. If the Fed decides to bail again, we may see a smaller decline but eventually this shit needs to course correct; all that does is make it bigger when it finally does come.
Click to expand...

Yeah can't lose it all in one day. What would be the impetus for a bounce back upwards? I can't particularly point to anything.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Lendarios said:
if I sell today, and wait for the market to hit 30k, then buy back in ill be at a gain.

Basically I don't think this Ukrainian situation is going to resolve anytime soon, and it may drag the market further down.
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Betsy Sodaro Reaction GIF by CBS
 
Ravishing

Ravishing

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Gravel said:
It's a long march down.

We'll probably get a few green days, but I doubt this is over.

I still think we see a 25-35% fall from the top (S&P in the low 3000's) before we start recovering. If the Fed decides to bail again, we may see a smaller decline but eventually this shit needs to course correct; all that does is make it bigger when it finally does come.
Click to expand...

swayze22 said:
Yeah can't lose it all in one day. What would be the impetus for a bounce back upwards? I can't particularly point to anything.
Click to expand...

We're in the same spot as April 2021.
Market has been flat for 9 months and has been declining for the entirety of 2022 - over 3 weeks.
The past 14 trading days, 13 are negative.

To keep saying " a few days "....

In my eyes, we're already down 25-35% when you consider the flat/negative growth in the past 9 months in conjunction with TRILLIONS injected into the economy/markets.

If we see another 15-25% decline we're talking a lot of pain for a lot of people.
And it certainly CAN happen... but... idk.
My gut is it will stabilize sooner than later.

I think Blazin being all in is at least 1 indicator here that the technical might point to positives ahead.
 
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LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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I have today off, spent it all looking at stocks.

This is prolly worse than a cocaine habit.

Buying call options on SPIR. Just gonna do some contrarian shit for the fuck of it.
 
Gravel

Gravel

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Ravishing said:
We're in the same spot as April 2021.
Market has been flat for 9 months and has been declining for the entirety of 2022 - over 3 weeks.
The past 14 trading days, 13 are negative.

To keep saying " a few days "....

In my eyes, we're already down 25-35% when you consider the flat/negative growth in the past 9 months in conjunction with TRILLIONS injected into the economy/markets.

If we see another 15-25% decline we're talking a lot of pain for a lot of people.
And it certainly CAN happen... but... idk.
My gut is it will stabilize sooner than later.

I think Blazin being all in is at least 1 indicator here that the technical might point to positives ahead.
Click to expand...
I think we need to reflect on where our economy actually is though. Nothing is good right now.

I don't have numbers, but how many businesses closed in 2020? We never really felt the pain of that. The rest of the market has been dipping, but it's been obfuscated by a handful of companies (mostly tech) at the top. Once those finally see the same type of drop in those, we'll fall off a fucking cliff.

There's no reason the stock market should've been trading at all time highs when grocery stores had empty shelves and businesses can't even do business because the supply chain is so fucked. And most people expected at best the supply chain wouldn't work itself out until the end of this year.
 
Ravishing

Ravishing

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Gravel said:
I think we need to reflect on where our economy actually is though. Nothing is good right now.

I don't have numbers, but how many businesses closed in 2020? We never really felt the pain of that. The rest of the market has been dipping, but it's been obfuscated by a handful of companies (mostly tech) at the top. Once those finally see the same type of drop in those, we'll fall off a fucking cliff.

There's no reason the stock market should've been trading at all time highs when grocery stores had empty shelves and businesses can't even do business because the supply chain is so fucked. And most people expected at best the supply chain wouldn't work itself out until the end of this year.
Click to expand...

You seem to ignore the insane amount of money that's been printed

  • As of March 2021, COVID costs totaled $5.2 trillion. World War II cost $4.7 trillion (in today’s dollars).
  • All-in money printing totaled $13 trillion: $5.2 for COVID + $4.5 for quantitative easing + $3 for infrastructure. Mountains of money cause inflation
Click to expand...

Numbers being bigger doesn't necessarily mean things are better.
New ATH doesn't mean the market is healthy when you consider the ATH should probably be 10% higher or more after printing so much cash.
These are things we have not really had experience with in the past.
It's Zimbabwe/Venezuela levels of scary imo.

Give everyone $1million and how do you think the stock market would react?
Pricing on everything would skyrocket.

The Govt printed enough money to give every US citizen $40K basically, in a year.
 
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Kiroy

Kiroy

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Lendarios said:
Swapped my FXAIX with a conservative strategy, since the change takes effect at 4 pm, Ill probably loss a ton of $$. Once the market stabilizes ill swap them back.
Click to expand...

I look forward to hearing about the "swap back" - and got anymore information on your "conservative strategy"?
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
I think we need to reflect on where our economy actually is though. Nothing is good right now.

I don't have numbers, but how many businesses closed in 2020? We never really felt the pain of that. The rest of the market has been dipping, but it's been obfuscated by a handful of companies (mostly tech) at the top. Once those finally see the same type of drop in those, we'll fall off a fucking cliff.

There's no reason the stock market should've been trading at all time highs when grocery stores had empty shelves and businesses can't even do business because the supply chain is so fucked. And most people expected at best the supply chain wouldn't work itself out until the end of this year.
Click to expand...
The market disconnected from the economy a while ago. The "market" is really about 10-20 stocks. Actually its about 7 or 8 but I am being generous. The disparity in market caps has vastly distorted cap weighted indexes.
 
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LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Sanrith Descartes said:
market disconnected from the economy a while ago. The "market" is really about 10-20 stocks. Actually its about 7 or 8 but I am being generous. The disparity in market caps has vastly distorted cap weighted indexes.
Click to expand...

Does that imply there is more value to be had from blue chip dividend stocks?

Aka, mom's stocks? Lol
 
Ravishing

Ravishing

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hmm, weird, i'm almost not down at all today... It's been weeks since I've seen a green number.
 
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