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Blazin

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Lets be honest. It isnt quite often that the 4th largest company by marketcap in the US drops 25% in a session. This is pretty uncharted territory we are in.
All of us even the experienced can lose sight of how low valuations can go, we end up with a false sense of security. Even pick the strongest with MSFT could it sell for $200/share absolutely and all without a single fundamental change and that price was only a year ago. The only stock that really can never go down is TESLA some of its declines seem big as % but for time erased they are nothing. And it's a Trillion dollar small car company.
 
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Hateyou

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There were so many ridiculous PE out there with startups and companies like Tesla that I’m not really sure how it could be very useful.
 

Blazin

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There were so many ridiculous PE out there with startups and companies like Tesla that I’m not really sure how it could be very useful.
It's just a term invented so people can make themselves look silly and quote them during 1000% bull markets. They have "some" value at the bottom of bear markets, but to make it even more laughable people quote trailing PE under some delusion the market trades on what has already occurred.

It's a little more respectable to look at projected earnings in the next 1-5 years and then extrapolate what you are willing to pay for those earnings, but that would still be of less value than looking at cash flow for the same period.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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All of us even the experienced can lose sight of how low valuations can go, we end up with a false sense of security. Even pick the strongest with MSFT could it sell for $200/share absolutely and all without a single fundamental change and that price was only a year ago. The only stock that really can never go down is TESLA some of its declines seem big as % but for time erased they are nothing. And it's a Trillion dollar small car company.
Since Covid Black Monday, the markets have fundamentally changed. I dont have to tell you that not more than 4 or 5 years ago a daily market change of more than 50 basis points was something that was out of the ordinary. A 2% drop in a day was call for "markets in turmoil" special on CNBC. Miss earnings? Drop a percent or two. The fact that there hasn't been a return to any semblance of normality in the market would be odd, except for the fact we still have entire states forcing kids to wear cloth masks in schools for 8 hours. Market reactions (both up and down) on stocks are still operating in clown world.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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It's just a term invented so people can make themselves look silly and quote them during 1000% bull markets. They have "some" value at the bottom of bear markets, but to make it even more laughable people quote trailing PE under some delusion the market trades on what has already occurred.

It's a little more respectable to look at projected earnings in the next 1-5 years and then extrapolate what you are willing to pay for those earnings, but that would still be of less value than looking at cash flow for the same period.
Happy Joel Mchale GIF by ABC Network
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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In other news, I am now +100% gain on my ABBV position.

Edit: I should have added that this is an example of adding to long term holds on periods of weakness. Three different times I added over a two year period to ABBV on pull backs and it paid off. More often than not, adding to quality on pullbacks pays off better than buying some new company.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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QQQ hit 8 straight red candles, one green and then another 4 red. 12 out of 13 minutes all red just before noon.
 
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Pogi.G

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The real question everyone interested in buying the dip on FB needs to ask, is do you see a fundamental business change. Ad revenue is a concern to me. Is FB the same company it was 2 years ago? Does it still have an unassailable moat? Probably the biggest is do you think the Big Tech companies are done playing nice and acting as a cartel? I'm not saying FB is going to zero, but I am curious if its best days may be behind it.

I could see FB going down in the short term, but I do think they are trying to corner the market in VR space developing a "Ready Player One" type thing. Pure speculation and a bit of a gamble, but I think long term they will a good play.

The next "amazon" if you will, I firmly believe it will come from the VR/AR space. Will it be FB? Probably, but at this point, someone could develop better tech for that space, and FB could be on it's ass. I also think AR will generate more money than VR because of broader possibilities. Think AR glasses as you drive down the road that pops up advertisements in a HUD. No more need for costly giant billboards everywhere etc.

I 100% believe that the VR/AR space is going to be the next big thing. Just a matter of discovering who that is going to be before everyone else.

Just my 2 cents...
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin Blazin question on MTTR options. So as long as IV stays relatively high and I wait until expiry to burn out all the time value from my current Puts, I can just keep rolling out the $20 strikes I wrote and the only real loss is the 4 cent and 6 cent buy/sell transaction fees, right?
 

Zog

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Too much uncertainty, normally i would be all over stocks today (my phone just typed suicide when i used gestures for stocks... 🤔) I think with the hard drop and a huge rally to FB madness, there no way i can predict anything.
 
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Kiroy

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I could see FB going down in the short term, but I do think they are trying to corner the market in VR space developing a "Ready Player One" type thing. Pure speculation and a bit of a gamble, but I think long term they will a good play.

The next "amazon" if you will, I firmly believe it will come from the VR/AR space. Will it be FB? Probably, but at this point, someone could develop better tech for that space, and FB could be on it's ass. I also think AR will generate more money than VR because of broader possibilities. Think AR glasses as you drive down the road that pops up advertisements in a HUD. No more need for costly giant billboards everywhere etc.

I 100% believe that the VR/AR space is going to be the next big thing. Just a matter of discovering who that is going to be before everyone else.

Just my 2 cents...

could be the old man in me but everytime I look at VR all I can think is "jesus nobody wants this dumb shit"
 
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Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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Another bloody day. The couple of bright spots are NUE (that 92.70 price is looking pretty good now, should have bought a few more shares) and ABBV.

MTTR is the biggest bleeder though.
It'll be better in 3 years. It will be better in 3 years. It WILL be better in 3 years. IT WILL BE BETTER IN 3 YEARS!
 
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swayze22

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could be the old man in me but everytime I look at VR all I can think is "jesus nobody wants this dumb shit"
No one wants that shit. If I had AR glasses and i'm just getting fucking ads all the time everywhere I would simply stop wearing them / return them. This is just further private corporation injection into my everyday life, but It all routes through one entity. I guess that could just be me though.

i don't think the AR/VR will be shaped the same way as the internet was by google in that sense

the biggest issue with the zuck-land is stuff like this (LOL):
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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I see the AR as being valuable but not with the Second Life type of recreation shit. I can see its value as a learning tool, lab tool, business applications etc. That will be where it makes its bones if they get this shit to really work.
 

Moglyzoke Moogleman

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Too much uncertainty, normally i would be all over stocks today (my phone just typed suicide when i used gestures for stocks... 🤔) I think with the hard drop and a huge rally to FB madness, there no way i can predict anything.
I've seen a couple of comments on Webull literally saying as much, "guy's, what's the best way to commit suicide."

Oddly enough nearly every comment in response was supportive. Gotta love the internet.
 

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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I will be supremely disappointed if there isn't a 'draw dicks on all of your friends' app that comes along with Augmented Reality glasses.

"What are you always laughing at when we hang out?"
 
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Ravishing

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I see the AR as being valuable but not with the Second Life type of recreation shit. I can see its value as a learning tool, lab tool, business applications etc. That will be where it makes its bones if they get this shit to really work.

AR & VR are 2 different animals imo.
AR is a tool that is already being put into practice. It's ceiling will be limited. Your primary customers will be businesses.
It's more accessible since you don't need to wear a headset. Just need a Smartphone/Tablet.

VR has a much higher ceiling, but its competition is also vast. And it is not as accessible.
VR needs to compete with traditional content delivery platforms, the internet, and real life.
VR still has a long way to go before Mass Adoption.
Creating content for VR is more demanding/costly than AR.
Porn & Sporting events are likely the 2 catalysts in the short term for VR.

15 years would be generous for VR imo.
I think you need the World Cup or SuperBowl to be available in VR before you see any mass adoption.
 

Pogi.G

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No one wants that shit. If I had AR glasses and i'm just getting fucking ads all the time everywhere I would simply stop wearing them / return them. This is just further private corporation injection into my everyday life, but It all routes through one entity. I guess that could just be me though.

i don't think the AR/VR will be shaped the same way as the internet was by google in that sense

the biggest issue with the zuck-land is stuff like this (LOL):

I had this same thought too, but then, I remember that people still spend almost 3 hours per day glued to their phones on social media staring at ads knowing full well they use targeted ads based on user traffic. If people are willing to do that, their willing to see how far away the next mcdonalds is on the highway, gas station, etc etc.
 

Blazin

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Blazin Blazin question on MTTR options. So as long as IV stays relatively high and I wait until expiry to burn out all the time value from my current Puts, I can just keep rolling out the $20 strikes I wrote and the only real loss is the 4 cent and 6 cent buy/sell transaction fees, right?
It grows the size of your trade, either via time or $. So it doesn't become oversized I would pick time. Issue with this strategy is that you don't get out unless it recovers. I'd shoot for a strategy that lowers the strike even if that means more time. So you have March expiration still at $20 strike?

Assuming yes, they are currently trading at around $11.80 that means a very high delta, there is no premium left in that option. So you have no theta decay working in your favor because they are too deep in the money. Looking at options chain you are in a tight spot because there is no way to get into the juicy premium without getting closer to the strike and you can't do that unless you realize part of this loss, ie you roll them into a lower strike and pay the $5-6/contract now.

This still could potentially get you out of the trade with near half the loss, without the stock recovering that much. If you want to avoid taking the stock and manage the option position you have to over the months continue to make sure you have a lot of premium in the option and not just sitting in a .94 delta position because at that point you should just hold the equity and sell calls.