Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Order didn't hit the other day so I moved it up from $251 to $253 and it hit today. Another name I like and hope to get back in at some point down the road. Cramer isn't "always" wrong. Just "mostly" wrong.
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Blazin
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It obviously isPE? What is this PE you speak of? I have read on the intarwebs that PE is an irrelevant metric.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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PYPL has pushed through its intermediate support level of $113. If it doesnt recover (and it hasnt since the Fed minutes), it has a slight pause at $105 and then most likely the Covid Black Monday low around $90.
Some big ass blocks of shares moving today.
Some big ass blocks of shares moving today.
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What the hell happened to drive up all 3 major indexes in a parabolic spike in the last hour or so?
Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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Right now the way it's bouncing around, I won't decide till 15 mins till close on Friday. Very well could get a close below my strike. Another strong up day, I'll probably try to roll them out two months at a higher strike.
Getting to be make or break time for market. Needs to close on the highs to set up continuation. Failure here would not be good. Tough read, we close strong and it could test 457 again by Friday. Still lots of bearish sentiment expecting a complete breakdown from the 200d.
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Sanrith Descartes
I followed your lead and sold both NUE and UNP today. I will also look to re-enter at a later date. NUE in particular will likely give a good entry price based on the volatility from the last 6 months or so. UNP... hard to know what a good target will be on that one, but it's way above MA's today so it seems as good a time as any to take some profit.
Blazin
I looked at MPC today, wow what a monster. I'm thinking that oil might be in for a drop in the near future, but who knows? It's waay outperforming the rest of the market the last 3 months, so I'm skeptical if that can last. I bow to your superior analysis abilities of course.As for ABBV, it's tempting to sell for profit, but it shows no sign of slowing. I wish I had bought more back in October at that low. As things stand, I think I'll hodl, and look to add if it dips again.
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Blazin
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When stocks are strong they can surprise us with their tenacity. MPC and ABBV are both great examples as they just have stayed strong and just keep trucking ahead. MPC is definitely in a technical overbought situation but it has a lot of momentum and could easily see 90s this year. ABBV I expect to spend more time in the 140s. As I mentioned, I'm sticking with plan to try to get back into MPC on a gap fill a few bucks below here. ABBV i'll see what happens remainder of the week. I don't really want to lose my shares here but even if I do let it go I'll be looking to add back on any weakness.
As for ABBV, it's tempting to sell for profit, but it shows no sign of slowing. I wish I had bought more back in October at that low. As things stand, I think I'll hodl, and look to add if it dips again.
So far I've lost each of them to calls previously and was able to get back in at a better basis even with how strong they have been, just cant be too greedy on what you look for in a pullback.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I like flipping Industrials and Materials. They are low beta so I really get worried that if I screw up an entry point I get underwater 25% in a day like a growth stock. Also, a good alpha for an industrial is generally 15% or so with dividends. At 25% return on a flip, it means I am usually at the point of diminishing returns on moving further up. UNP is tricky as with supply chains fucked up it could quite possibly keep running for a while. There is enough market uncertainty that I bet that taking the profit and grabbing some dry powder for a downswing was the better play. Time will tell.
As for ABBV, it's tempting to sell for profit, but it shows no sign of slowing. I wish I had bought more back in October at that low. As things stand, I think I'll hodl, and look to add if it dips again.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Even at a 52-high its still paying nearly a 4% dividend yield. Madness.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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Like many big pharma they just have too much revenue concentration. Right now market is having faith in them, but it can turn on these companies very quickly. They are essentially the same company that traded down into the $60s. I think it's a great company but this is likely peak Revenue for them for the foreseeable future unless we get some surprises in the pipeline. How the company will trade during those coming declining revenues as Humira runs off is tough to predict. It's has been an easy hold for awhile, ownership through '24 may not be all roses and sunshine. Gilead is always a great example, managing these companies is extremely difficult. How much to spend on R&D how much to pay back to shareholders how much to spend on acquisitions is a constant balancing act.
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Random market musings...Watching SHOP blow up today another high flyer taken to the woodchipper the pattern has become clear that high valuation companies that ran up during the last two years are likely to give back a substantial portion if not all of that outperformance. This of course gets a person thinking about...TESLA
Forget overvaluation, cult following etc. just from a market behavior standpoint it would seem likely to me that at some point during Tesla's maturing process as a company and a stock that is going to just have it's clock completely cleaned. Even the greatest of companies like MSFT and APPL where laid low in their history. TSLA ownership has been easy for a long time, the story is so strong it would likely take a significant catalyst to shift sentiment. When that sentiment shift comes it could be epic, it may even mark the end of the bull run off the 2009 lows.
Forget overvaluation, cult following etc. just from a market behavior standpoint it would seem likely to me that at some point during Tesla's maturing process as a company and a stock that is going to just have it's clock completely cleaned. Even the greatest of companies like MSFT and APPL where laid low in their history. TSLA ownership has been easy for a long time, the story is so strong it would likely take a significant catalyst to shift sentiment. When that sentiment shift comes it could be epic, it may even mark the end of the bull run off the 2009 lows.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I know about the 60's. I started my position when it waterfalled the day of the Allergan announcement. Botox will help them and I think they still have some tricks to keep extending the lock-up on Humira (they keep finding "new" things it can treat. I know I should trim some, but its a nice counter to my teach heavy portfolio.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I watch the EV space pretty close. Musk isnt really concerned with ultra-low cost competitors (the Leafs and Bolts of the world). Its all about gettng people into 3's and Y's and then moving some of them into the S's and X's and retaining the rest in the "lower tier". He needs to get the Cybertruck out ahead of the Lightning and thats a real challenge. He absolutely owns the premium E-SUV space. I have checked out the I-Pace and it just doesnt compare, its just too small. The X and Y (to a lesser extent) are just big. The other moat he has is in batter performance. In winter in the north, those sub-300 mile range competitors are just going to be eaten alive using the heat.
You re probably right, and why I only own a token share, but I have learned to not bet against the guy. I can say first hand, the product is pretty amazing and there is no dearth of people willing to drop 80-100k for a car. At least right now.