Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
-
Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
- 47,142
- 101,117
Tmac
Adventurer
- 10,172
- 17,509
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
- 6,576
- 4,581
14:40 (US) Fed Chair Powell: 75bps rate hike is not something we are actively considering; Expectations are that we'll start to see inflation flattening; Some evidence core PCE is peaking - post rate decision Q&A
- We will not hesitate to go higher on rates if we have to; We could go higher than neutral if necessary; Certainly possible Fed may need to move policy to restrictive levels
- Don't want to just see 'some evidence' on inflation; We want to see progress
- Broad sense that additional 50bps hikes should be on the table for next couple meetings; Those decisions will be made at the meetings as new data comes in
- Still have a good chance for a soft or 'softish' landing; Does expect it to be very challenging however
- We think job creation will slow; Possible the jobless rate will go down further
- Wages are running high, especially in services sector
- Thinks supply and demand will come back into balance for labor market
- There is a path in which labor market moderates without unemployment rising; By moderating demand, we could see vacancies drop
- Don't see a wage-price spiral now; Can't run risk of wage-price spiral and unanchored expectations
- We don't have a specific goal for ratio of job openings to unemployed (Beveridge Curve) but right now it is too high (2:1)
- Nothing in economy suggests it is close to or vulnerable to a recession; We could see slower economic activity as fiscal policy wanes
- Effect of shrinking the balance sheet is uncertain
- Should not read anything into runoff start date of June 1st versus mid-May
- Does not think that the Fed has a credibility problem; Does not see two Fed mandates in tension right now
- Wage rises are to some extent being eaten up by inflation
- We will not hesitate to go higher on rates if we have to; We could go higher than neutral if necessary; Certainly possible Fed may need to move policy to restrictive levels
- Don't want to just see 'some evidence' on inflation; We want to see progress
- Broad sense that additional 50bps hikes should be on the table for next couple meetings; Those decisions will be made at the meetings as new data comes in
- Still have a good chance for a soft or 'softish' landing; Does expect it to be very challenging however
- We think job creation will slow; Possible the jobless rate will go down further
- Wages are running high, especially in services sector
- Thinks supply and demand will come back into balance for labor market
- There is a path in which labor market moderates without unemployment rising; By moderating demand, we could see vacancies drop
- Don't see a wage-price spiral now; Can't run risk of wage-price spiral and unanchored expectations
- We don't have a specific goal for ratio of job openings to unemployed (Beveridge Curve) but right now it is too high (2:1)
- Nothing in economy suggests it is close to or vulnerable to a recession; We could see slower economic activity as fiscal policy wanes
- Effect of shrinking the balance sheet is uncertain
- Should not read anything into runoff start date of June 1st versus mid-May
- Does not think that the Fed has a credibility problem; Does not see two Fed mandates in tension right now
- Wage rises are to some extent being eaten up by inflation
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
- 47,142
- 101,117
Captain Suave
Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
- 5,510
- 9,447
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 41,180
- 138,773
It's really amazing. Between him and Yellen it's a whole lot of denial about things that are incredibly obvious. From "transitory inflation" to "we don't see signs of a recession," it's all just bullshit coming from them.
- 3
- 1
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
- 47,142
- 101,117
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 46,065
- 127,582
See and this is why Bears are so fucked. The Fed flat out refuses to address inflation seriously because Markets > Economy. Piss on Bears all you like but they aren't wrong, they are just fighting a losing battle and against Powell and the Fed.
- 5
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 46,065
- 127,582
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 46,065
- 127,582
So I cost myself some alpha closing my puts before the announcement but it is what it is. 10% inflation here we come.