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Fogel

Fogel

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Best decision possible moving business from NJ to Fl.
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NJ practically made the decision for us. We wanted to expand and add a line on the adjacent property which was a super fund site almost done being remediated. They wanted us to pay a million dollars for an acre of empty dirt. We found a 50k square foot building and 13 acres for 750k in FL. Guess they did us a favor since shortly after our decision they passed the 15$ min wage law. Someone should explain to them one day that no matter what your minimum wage law is, you collect 0 tax dollars if all the jobs flee the state.
 
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Hateyou

Hateyou

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I didn’t have any huge wins with the dip, mostly because I’m playing with small amounts. Made 10% on AMD, would have been 25% if I would have just held it, got into a few companies at a low point but I’m just sitting on them.

This is my only big win I’m very happy with. I moved my 401k investment allocations from stocks to a fixed income fund the day before the crashing started. I’ve been slowly moving the funds back as we were hitting lows. I’m green for the year now as it has been rising back up. Finally moved the remaining funds from the fixed income back to my original allocation %’s as of this Wednesday and will now just not touch it like I normally do. Got out at 29k and being green again at 24k feels pretty good.

My coworker who had the same allocations as I did is still down ~15%, he didn’t move anything.

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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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My brokerage account is up about 12% (not large) and my IRA is down about 3% (XOM and BA call options providing the drag). Down near the bottom I added to the cash I already had in my brokerage and put it all into SPYG and am letting tech do its thing there. My best performers in my IRA are MSFT, UHC, SBUX (I sold) AAPL and LMT.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Great read on oil. This is why I advise everyone who asks to avoid trading in commodities. They are so complex compared to looking at company balance sheets and shit. The oil majors have their hands in a lot of different pots besides just crude. In my opinion the big 4 or 6 majors are the only "safe" way to get oil/energy exposure (or an ETF where the big 6 make up the vast majority of the fund). Years ago I dabbled in oil tanker companies. I learned a valuable lesson as to why energy/oil traders rarely trade outside of oil/energy. Its a 24/7 life.

 
Furry

Furry

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Great read on oil. This is why I advise everyone who asks to avoid trading in commodities. They are so complex compared to looking at company balance sheets and shit. The oil majors have their hands in a lot of different pots besides just crude. In my opinion the big 4 or 6 majors are the only "safe" way to get oil/energy exposure (or an ETF where the big 6 make up the vast majority of the fund). Years ago I dabbled in oil tanker companies. I learned a valuable lesson as to why energy/oil traders rarely trade outside of oil/energy. Its a 24/7 life.

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Interesting, and yea commodities are weird and reactionary. I've always thought it's not a good idea to trade in them unless it's actually your business. While reading that, I stumbled upon someone looking into the comments I made about the Gilead cure here. The timing in particular felt like it was intended for market manipulation. I really think we're just seeing the tip of the iceburg when it comes to people trying to fuck with the markets this year.

 
Furious

Furious

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I hope everyone has been making a killing on this crazy vix.

Sold everything on Jan 31 and moved to gold. Sold gold after it didn't skyrocket like I thought it should and been buying all the way down starting in Mid March.

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I wished I could trade in the states though, Canada is so limited and has too much Oil and Banks. (Yes I do trade US through RRSP but such small room)

Any Canadians buying any small caps that have taken a beating but have strong balance sheets?

I'm buying VOO, BRK, AMEX only in the US right now and will add to those every drastic red day.

In Canada, I'm buying on the Div Aristo list with a high Graham value, basically great Current and quick ratios, low book, great div and earnings records. Oh and banks, lots of banks.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Furious said:
I hope everyone has been making a killing on this crazy vix.

Sold everything on Jan 31 and moved to gold. Sold gold after it didn't skyrocket like I thought it should and been buying all the way down starting in Mid March.

View attachment 263744View attachment 263745

I wished I could trade in the states though, Canada is so limited and has too much Oil and Banks. (Yes I do trade US through RRSP but such small room)

Any Canadians buying any small caps that have taken a beating but have strong balance sheets?

I'm buying VOO, BRK, AMEX only in the US right now and will add to those every drastic red day.

In Canada, I'm buying on the Div Aristo list with a high Graham value, basically great Current and quick ratios, low book, great div and earnings records. Oh and banks, lots of banks.
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Be careful with AMEX. Unlike V and MC, they are their own bank. They have serious risk with defaults.
 
Furious

Furious

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Be careful with AMEX. Unlike V and MC, they are their own bank. They have serious risk with defaults.
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Thanks for the heads up.

Everything I own, I'm willing to flip.

I, unlike Blazin Blazin , think we are only at the start of a long hard road. I was very active durion the 2008 crash and this is magnitudes more serious. It's crazy how the market shrugs off such bad numbers.

I certainly could be wrong but I'll take the cash on 10% green days every time.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Furious said:
I, unlike Blazin Blazin , think we are only at the start of a long hard road.
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I simply look at probability of outcomes in both directions and don't marry an idea. Market doesn't care if I think it's going up or down. I either failed to communicate or you misread me for whatever led you to this statement.
 
Furious

Furious

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Blazin said:
I simply look at probability of outcomes in both directions and don't marry an idea. Market doesn't care if I think it's going up or down. I either failed to communicate or you misread me for whatever led you to this statement.
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Sorry, nothing was meant on my part.

I assumed you were leaning on the bullish side based on the US feds holding the bottom off post #3051 but I might have read that wrong. I've just always thought the market is too expensive based on my love of Ben Graham.

I do not think the old normals apply now that the Central banks all agree that they should prop up over-leveraged companies for the good of lalala.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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I have tons of opinions on whats happening, didn't become a millionaire until I started not giving a shit about my opinion and simply respond to what is. I think this market move is extreme and grossly overvalued. The technical set up is turning bullish, the price action is bullish. I don't need to fight the tape in hope of it aligning with my views. If we start losing key support, if set ups become bearish I'll adjust. There are a 1000 reasons to not trust this rally right now, all that does for me though is make me more vigilant about paying attention to the weight of the evidence and what the market is showing me. The decline was unprecedented the rally is unprecedented, and these kind of moves will humble even the most experienced of investors.

In regards to valuations off the 09 low the market traded at over a 70 PE , because the market accurately saw the improvement coming. Valuations are about the worst timing tool there is, but as an investor I completely understand considering them in our choices. That should be done based upon projections of future earnings not past, and you or I are not going to project those earnings better than the net aggregate opinion of all market participants.

I could write a freaking book about what I don't like currently, very concerning things. We had a very high probability of testing the lows, the last two weeks has reduced that probability not eliminated it. A day at a time, and always without ego or bias they aren't your friend.
 
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Khane

Khane

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So to sum up "The market often doesn't make sense and trying to make sense of it is a fool's errand"
 
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TJT

TJT

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Khane said:
So to sum up "The market often doesn't make sense and trying to make sense of it is a fool's errand"
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I believe the correct phrase is, "the market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent."
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Khane said:
So to sum up "The market often doesn't make sense and trying to make sense of it is a fool's errand"
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Exactly and if you shun it for all periods it doesn't make sense then you will miss out on the lion share of bull market gains. The reality is though when it doesn't make sense is because the investor is either missing information or improperly weighing pieces of information they do have, or the investor is looking at too short of a time frame. The day to day action is not the answer moving averages are the aggregate opinion of all traders over a period of time.
 
Khane

Khane

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Blazin said:
Exactly and if you shun it for all periods it doesn't make sense then you will miss out on the lion share of bull market gains. The reality is though when it doesn't make sense is because the investor is either missing information or improperly weighing pieces of information they do have, or the investor is looking at too short of a time frame. The day to day action is not the answer moving averages are the aggregate opinion of all traders over a period of time.
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I would say that is true by and large. Except for instances like this, which also happen to be when most investors, who are typically happy with their long term strategies, get FOMO and want to become day traders.

The markets ending green 3 weeks in a row after unemployment numbers came out is bizarro world.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Khane said:
The markets ending green 3 weeks in a row after unemployment numbers came out is bizarro world.
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Counter argument, the market dropped 3 weeks in a row knowing those numbers where coming, they were fully expected. Why would it drop after they were expected? The market has been abnormal in that the speed is so condensed. The market goes down on the expectation of bad numbers and it climbs during the worst of when those numbers are baring out. The market does not and never has waited for the all clear economically. It front runs it.

The market moves on new data, in this case stimulus and improving virus data, I'm not defending the move, I'm not supporting it. A 50% retracement was the likely outcome historically, if we continue from here then I'm sure history will show that the economy recovered faster than you or I thought and/or that stimulus was sufficient to bridge the cap and had a larger effect than you or I see.
 
Khane

Khane

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The market hasn't dropped the past two weeks though. It's climbed quite a bit. But that's kind of the point. Sometimes the market is purely reactionary, which leads to shock sell offs like we saw in March. And sometimes it puts its blinders on and says "Well, I guess it could be worse" and looks optimistic. And from a purely logical standpoint it doesn't really make sense. The actual chances of us finding a treatment that has reasonable efficacy... enough to end quarantines across America in the short term is miniscule. And that all the jobs that were there before are still going to be there when it's all said and done is also miniscule. So the market is ignoring a staggering unemployment number, in favor of betting on the long shot. That's crazy town.

The market, and many market "experts", are very easy to fool because they are greedy and want to make money and have more means to hedge their bets, so they don't necessarily care as much as the typical middle class American. Maybe saying they're easy to fool isn't quite correct. They generally don't really care.

All you have to do is come up with some jargon that sounds good and people will buy it. Wells Fargo and cross-selling for instance. Nobody is going to question HOW it's done, just tell me you do it and explain it in a way that makes it sound profitable and I'll buy buy buy, and I'll go on TV and tell everyone else to buy buy buy too!

It's why I'll never be able to put the time and effort into becoming a knowledgeable trader. Just researching finance makes my stomach turn. It's an industry full of charlatans who never change because they're never held accountable to any real standard.

Anyway, that's my rant for the week.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Khane said:
It's why I'll never be able to put the time and effort into becoming a knowledgeable trader. Just researching finance makes my stomach turn. It's an industry full of charlatans who never change because they're never held accountable to any real standard.
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I know you equate this to me but I actually agree with you, when I got my first degree in Economics and then Finance I was positive it was a career for me. The more I learned about major financial firms and how the people are there and how they actually make money I couldn't run away fast enough. I completely understand your frustrations and if you I knew you in RL we could shoot the shit for enough hours climbing a mountain to get into why there is still a place for independent traders and investors outside of the world you are talking about. You do need to understand them but you don't have to be them to make money. They don't make money understanding the markets they make money siphoning off of a portion of massive sums regardless of performance all while lying and deceiving their customers convincing them they are needed.

Some stuff I'd love to get into here just takes more than I want to lay out on a message board, as my post count shows I'm just not the prodigious of a communicator in this format.
 
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