Investing General Discussion

Arden said:

You think there's no other place for money to go, other than tech/growth stocks? Not doubting you, just asking.

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No but I'm at a loss for anywhere else that has a real shot at delivering the returns that the big pension funds promise their members. That dynamic has always driven investment in vc and pe and that hasn't gone away.

I'm trying to figure out where to put my money and I'm at a loss too. I've lost a ton this year but I also didn't lose a ton more. I scratch my head about what to do now and 3 percent treasuries seem a little better than leaving it in the bank but locking up capital for 10 years seems like a bad idea right now.

So. . .I'm buying dips for now and losing more every day until this turns around. I don't think I'm done losing money but confident that I'll look back in 3 years as a very happy person.

Mikey said:

No but I'm at a loss for anywhere else that has a real shot at delivering the returns that the big pension funds promise their members. That dynamic has always driven investment in vc and pe and that hasn't gone away.

I'm trying to figure out where to put my money and I'm at a loss too. I've lost a ton this year but I also didn't lose a ton more. I scratch my head about what to do now and 3 percent treasuries seem a little better than leaving it in the bank but locking up capital for 10 years seems like a bad idea right now.

So. . .I'm buying dips for now and losing more every day until this turns around. I don't think I'm done losing money but confident that I'll look back in 3 years as a very happy person.

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Well, there have been plenty of bear markets before. Where do people usually put their money in a bear Market? If I'm reading you right, you are suggesting that this bear Market is a little bit different because inflation is so high and bonds are so low, therefore the usual refuges aren't there. If that's the case, I don't know? Gold? Technically, this is supposed to be where something like Bitcoin it shines, but, as others have mentioned, it hasn't made that leap yet.

Arden said:

Well, there have been plenty of bear markets before. Where do people usually put their money in a bear Market? If I'm reading you right, you are suggesting that this bear Market is a little bit different because inflation is so high and bonds are so low, therefore the usual refuges aren't there. If that's the case, I don't know? Gold? Technically, this is supposed to be where something like Bitcoin it shines, but, as others have mentioned, it hasn't made that leap yet.

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I don't need short term liquidity and I have good diversification in real estate already. I'm continuing to invest daily in technology. . .specifically data infrastructure stocks that I think will do well if this turns into a recession. I can ride out another 50% drop if it comes to that, but I don't think it will.

I've never put a penny into crypto and I won't. I have some money in gold ETF's and maybe I'll add some more. . .but there are 'hard tech' stocks with strong exec teams trading at or under 10x sales now. I'm comfortable making those bets in the belief that we won't go much below that and revenues in those companies are growing 40%-70% (or more).

My personal thoughts on the market right now are that we will see some additional sell off from here unless we get great news on inflation tomorrow because retail is starting to panic but by the end of the week I expect a bounce to start and hold for a couple weeks atleast but unless the fed changes course this isn’t the bottom yet if they keep hiking until real estate shows some weakness which is likely the markets could drop another 25% from here imo.

Sanrith Descartes said:

I think I am going to start my own OnlyFans account and call it OnlyStonks.

"Oh, you want me to show you the next QQQ support level? Tip me baby!!"

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Show some loss porn?

Futures are up, so who knows.

Every pop has been sold recently. Let’s see how it goes. That said, we are pretty extended down here and due for an attempted bounce to at least the 20D. No guarantees anything sticks, but just some bigger picture awareness.

Double miss NCLH.

07:00 [NCLH] Reports Q1 -$2.35 v -$1.73e, Rev $521.9M v $655Me

Further NCLH:

- Affirms FY22 Capex $1.6B, FY23 Capex $2.5B, FY24 Capex $1.4B (prior: FY22 Capex $1.6B, FY23 Capex $2.5B, FY24 Capex $1.4B)
- Adj EBITDA -$476.2M v -$373.4M y/y
- Cash burn $375M v $390Me
- Booking trends:
The quarter began with net bookings, particularly for close-in voyages, negatively impacted by the Omicron surge, which began to improve in mid-January. This momentum was temporarily disrupted as the Company experienced elevated cancellations, primarily for itineraries in the Baltic region, in the immediate weeks following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, this impact was short-lived and net booking volumes have since shown sequential improvement, not only rebounding back to pre-Omicron levels but also now approaching the booking pace needed to consistently sail at historical load factor levels.

As a result of the temporary setbacks from Omicron and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Company’s current cumulative booked position for the second half of 2022 is below the comparable 2019 period but at meaningfully higher pricing even when including the dilutive impact of future cruise credits (“FCCs”). The booked position improves throughout the year with the fourth quarter of 2022 in line with the comparable 2019 period and at meaningfully higher prices. Booking trends for 2023 continue to be positive with both booked position and pricing significantly higher and at record levels when compared to bookings for 2019 and pre-pandemic 2020 at a comparable point in the booking curve.

The Company’s advance ticket sales balance, including the long-term portion, increased $418 million in the quarter to $2.2 billion as of March 31, 2022. This includes approximately $0.6 billion of FCCs or 27% of the total deposit balance. Gross advance ticket sales build was approximately $1.1 billion during the quarter, the highest level since the start of the pandemic.

I would be extremely careful with cruise lines or anything travel related. That cash burn is insane already and though Covid is improving in the west every other macro factor is massively against them. The odds of some of these companies going to zero is growing as oil prices spike further and recession deepens in Europe and looms in the US.

Sanrith Descartes said:

We cannot allow green days ...

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On top of that:

09:38 (US) Fed's Mester (FOMC voter, hawk): We need to move rates up at a pace to get inflation moving
- Comfortable moving 50 basis points at next couple meetings but will remain data dependent
- Need to see compelling evidence that inflation is moving lower, have NOT seen that yet
- Reiterates neutral is ~2.5%; Will probably have to go above neutral to get inflation down
- We could see another negative GDP print and may need to see unemployment rise
- Do not think Fed policy will put economy into sustained downturn
- Will need to consider selling MBS at some point