Investing General Discussion
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Blazin
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I just lightened up and sold 1000 shares of QQQ. I'm more available to trade so getting cheeky. Seeing lots of good bullish signals starting to develop versus previous rally attempts. That doesn't mean smooth sailing though. I can see a drop of SPX back to around 3955 area and at that point we will see if sentiment has really adjusted.
There is also a setup that we push higher again coming out of this weeks consolidation, which is why I'm keeping rest of index holdings a bit more before I start trying to flip them.
There is also a setup that we push higher again coming out of this weeks consolidation, which is why I'm keeping rest of index holdings a bit more before I start trying to flip them.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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You were definitely getting too negative, had the one of the worst first halves in history and you were still just expecting further crash. Doesn't mean this bear market is over but never pays to get too negative for too long. Markets only travel in one direction for so long, we may well yet fail just above here.
Inflation is likely to sink like a rock, the market will like that but the economic weakness might become more impactful to earnings which could keep us in a bear for a bit longer. Just need to keep on open mind and stay flexible.
Humans have no trouble imagining bad outcomes and are pretty shitty at keeping on open mind to better than expected outcomes even though that is often the base case.
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Furry
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I'm all in because I have no idea what the fuck markets will do. I think were entering an unprecedented market era, so all bets are off. Sure, most people can look at how things are going with the economy and tell there's some things deeply wrong with it. That said, it doesn't necessarily mean a market crash. The S&P has weathered many such events over long time frames, so instead of hiding my money under the bed Ill just keep on trucking.
Sanrith Descartes
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Only thing I am not liking today is the breadth. 30% of the NYSE are red. 26% of the Nasdaq.
Wanted to ask you bros about my long term portfolio. I am not asking for financial advice and will not consider any responses as financial advice. Background, my 401k allows me to self manage. I initially wanted to be semi active and bought stocks in blocks of 100 to sell covered calls being bored during initial pandemic closures. Probably for the best my account only has the lowest level of options of covered calls. Figured doing that would satisfy my appetite for being "active." Getting less interested in doing that so less of a factor for me. What I'm looking to do is rebalance as I'm very tech heavy. I just turned 39, so 20-25 years to work with on these items. Have my purchases set to reinvest dividends. Here's my current holdings and truncated percentage of holdings
APPL 15%
GOOG 12%
GME 7%
MO 4%
PLTR 2%
F 1%
VOO 48%
QYLD 1%
Unallocated 2%
I'm into F for their X-plan program. If they have an electric Ford Maverick at some point, I'll be interested in it. Hopefully by that time, car market has corrected somewhat and dealership honor that plan. GME is definitely a lottery ticket that I'm up on currently. Definitely open to trimming that and keeping some in case of yolo rocket ships. I bought PLTR at $7.52 and don't mind holding onto that long term. I should have bought PYPL last week. I was previously in ABBV but sold when it was way up.
Conventional thinking says I should cut out APPL and GOOGL for some other sectors doesn't it? Even though they are quality, I'm pretty overweight in them with my VOO holdings right? I'm thinking I should find some quality health tech and maybe some retail? Again open to some thoughts on where to rebalance.
APPL 15%
GOOG 12%
GME 7%
MO 4%
PLTR 2%
F 1%
VOO 48%
QYLD 1%
Unallocated 2%
I'm into F for their X-plan program. If they have an electric Ford Maverick at some point, I'll be interested in it. Hopefully by that time, car market has corrected somewhat and dealership honor that plan. GME is definitely a lottery ticket that I'm up on currently. Definitely open to trimming that and keeping some in case of yolo rocket ships. I bought PLTR at $7.52 and don't mind holding onto that long term. I should have bought PYPL last week. I was previously in ABBV but sold when it was way up.
Conventional thinking says I should cut out APPL and GOOGL for some other sectors doesn't it? Even though they are quality, I'm pretty overweight in them with my VOO holdings right? I'm thinking I should find some quality health tech and maybe some retail? Again open to some thoughts on where to rebalance.
Tmac
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Sanrith Descartes
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My thoughts:
Yes with VOO you are seriously overweight AAPL. Not "as" much GOOG. I mean if there is one stock to be heavy in its AAPL, but you are around 18% which is too much. 13% GOOG is something you could hold on to for a bit longer and maybe trim down at 15%? Technically its the Comm sector so that is providing some diversification from Tech.
I would dump MO because the risk is to heavy for my liking. PM (the ex-US version) is a much better investment in my opinion. I dont like US risk in the smoke sector.
GME? For long term investing it doesnt have a place in a portfolio.
As for places to diversify some cash into from Tech... Financials have been beaten down pretty hard. Something like HD in Consumer Discretionary?
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If anyone here listens to Sam Harris, he did a recent podcast on the psychology of wealth and savings that covered a lot of topics readers here might find useful:
"In this episode of the podcast, Sam Harris speaks with Morgan Housel about the psychology of money and investing. They discuss how personal history shapes one’s view of economic risk, the implications of not understanding the future, being rich vs being wealthy, how we measure success, the problem of social comparison, happiness vs life satisfaction, saving and investing, Warren Buffett and the power of compounding, rational vs reasonable decisions, the role of luck, optimism vs pessimism, dollar-cost averaging, and other topics."
www.samharris.org
Sanrith Descartes
' point about the power of compounding comes up several times. The formula for compounding is A = P(1 + r/n)^nt. Note t is in the exponent, so time in market should be the priority far above other factors like chasing differential returns. Fun factoid from the interview - Warren Buffet made 99% of his money after age 60. That's a reflection of the power of compounding, not that his returns were any better after that period.
"In this episode of the podcast, Sam Harris speaks with Morgan Housel about the psychology of money and investing. They discuss how personal history shapes one’s view of economic risk, the implications of not understanding the future, being rich vs being wealthy, how we measure success, the problem of social comparison, happiness vs life satisfaction, saving and investing, Warren Buffett and the power of compounding, rational vs reasonable decisions, the role of luck, optimism vs pessimism, dollar-cost averaging, and other topics."
Sam Harris | #287 - Why Wealth Matters
Sam Harris speaks with Morgan Housel about the psychology of money and investing.
Sanrith Descartes
' point about the power of compounding comes up several times. The formula for compounding is A = P(1 + r/n)^nt. Note t is in the exponent, so time in market should be the priority far above other factors like chasing differential returns. Fun factoid from the interview - Warren Buffet made 99% of his money after age 60. That's a reflection of the power of compounding, not that his returns were any better after that period.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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Asshat wormie
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Meh just read the book. Fuck Sam Harris.If anyone here listens to Sam Harris, he did a recent podcast on the psychology of wealth and savings that covered a lot of topics readers here might find useful.
"In this episode of the podcast, Sam Harris speaks with Morgan Housel about the psychology of money and investing. They discuss how personal history shapes one’s view of economic risk, the implications of not understanding the future, being rich vs being wealthy, how we measure success, the problem of social comparison, happiness vs life satisfaction, saving and investing, Warren Buffett and the power of compounding, rational vs reasonable decisions, the role of luck, optimism vs pessimism, dollar-cost averaging, and other topics."
Sam Harris | #287 - Why Wealth Matters
Sam Harris speaks with Morgan Housel about the psychology of money and investing.
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Thanks for these thoughts. I did want to get clarification on on the percentages. You say 13% GOOG is something I can hang onto but trim down at 15%? Or are you referring to getting GOOG down to 15% including the VOO allocation?
Sanrith Descartes
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Dont make me whip out my PYPL cost basis.I have some SPY I bought at $450 so don't sweat it
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Sanrith Descartes
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Ok so here is how you calculate weight with a fund. So in this case AAPL is 5.92% of VOO. So calculate the total dollars in AAPL in your portfolio and add to it the total dollars in VOO (times 0.0592). Add those dollars together and then divide by total portfolio dollars. That is the total weight AAPL has in your portfolio. Do the same for GOOG but use the multiple of 0.0197.
I came up with the original percentages based on napkin math since VOO is about half your portfolio. If I didnt feel the market was still moving on an upswing I would trim now. But i would let it ride up a bit more cause I am greedy. Also you need an idea on where you are going to allocate the cash from the trim.
I run a 5% weight cap on individual stocks except for a couple I am overweight on. AAPL and MSFT. Spend time doing your due diligence on where you want to place the cash and then think about the trimming. If It wasnt AAPL i would tell you to trim it back asap.
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Mist
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Gonna put a 1-2k each into 5 oversold stocks.
Paypal is one.
Netflix is another.
Any suggestions on the other 3?
It's gotta be a household name that's down at least 60% off its high, and it can't be Meta because fuck Zuck and it can't be Nvidia because I already have too much in Nvidia.
Paypal is one.
Netflix is another.
Any suggestions on the other 3?
It's gotta be a household name that's down at least 60% off its high, and it can't be Meta because fuck Zuck and it can't be Nvidia because I already have too much in Nvidia.