Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 16, 2022

Mist said:
I did mention it, because I mentioned that even when it ends, it'll still be difficult to manufacture. It takes manufacturing expertise, it's the same reason we can't just flip a switch and start producing 5 or 7nm chips in the US.

So you think various pharma companies are going to be unable to generic Humira because its complicated? Like, they haven't already done it and have just been waiting for expiry?

Mist · Sep 16, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
So you think various pharma companies are going to be unable to generic Humira because its complicated? Like, they haven't already done it and have just been waiting for expiry?

As far as I know, manufacturing biologics takes pretty significant capital expenditure, and the expertise is limited. I don't think it'll be anywhere near trivial to produce it as a generic.

Moglyzoke Moogleman · Sep 17, 2022

Aldarion · Sep 17, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
If you were to go back and read my posts over the years, I have slowly been worn down on my list of "I will never own" for non-financial reasons. Cigarette companies are the last on the list. And it gets hard even there. PM is always on my watch list because financially I like the company (for what it is, a cash cow). Truth is, I am an evolving human being (maybe devolving is more accurate) and occasionally my positions change.

After some consideration, the more I thought about your answers the less satisfying they are.

I already addressed the point that individual investors don't make a measurable difference in share price. Already acknowledged. But exactly the same argument applies to boycotting, voting, or social media campaigns, which you seem to promote as a better alternative.

As for the "it doesnt hurt the company" argument - this had me for a while but then I thought more about it. You obviously can't hurt, or be angry at, a company. Its a non-entity, a legal fiction, a collection of people. Who are the people to blame? Who else can you hope to hold accountable but the owner of the company?

And in a publicly traded company that means the shareholders. They are the appropriate target, not an accident. they own the shit.

Again, nothing we do as traders make a measurable difference. Just like nothing we do as customers or voters or social media people makes a difference. Individually. The effects result from collective action, and adding our miniscule voice to the chorus of people saying "fuck you" to an evil company still matters ethically, in my view, whether it has a measurable effect on the company or not as an individual action. Its about not participating with evil.

The thing is, I think you think this too. Else why avoid tobacco companies?

fris · Sep 17, 2022

Rangoth said:
lol, while a hilarious idea, and I will probably put on my watch list out of curiosity, are the filing dates required by congress fast enough for this play to execute? I thought it was pretty generous….

The delay is a month I think, and they miss it more often than not. Even if it was day of, Pelosis buys are probably large enough to swing the price
Can't believe their allowed to trade. I mean, I can, but I don't like it

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 17, 2022

Moglyzoke Moogleman said:
Shonuff? People gave him crap about his "I only lose when I'm emotional" stick but he was spot on. When trading if you actually stick to your plan you will do just fine. The problem is exactly that, though. You have to be very disciplined or else you'll make an audible (and deviate from the plan which = fail.)

Not letting psychology get to you (thus making a stupid mistake,) is how folks lose. At least it is how I lost. If I'd known after a win our subconscious mind is wired to self sabotage, I would've taken breaks. Instead after a nice $1.5k to $2k win, I'd give back 50% to 75% the next day or two.

It is why sociopaths may do better in the market. Their emotions don't trick them into stupid decisions.

Having a bad plan isnt saved by being emotionless in execution.

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 17, 2022

Aldarion said:
After some consideration, the more I thought about your answers the less satisfying they are.

I already addressed the point that individual investors don't make a measurable difference in share price. Already acknowledged. But exactly the same argument applies to boycotting, voting, or social media campaigns, which you seem to promote as a better alternative.

As for the "it doesnt hurt the company" argument - this had me for a while but then I thought more about it. You obviously can't hurt, or be angry at, a company. Its a non-entity, a legal fiction, a collection of people. Who are the people to blame? Who else can you hope to hold accountable but the owner of the company?

And in a publicly traded company that means the shareholders. They are the appropriate target, not an accident. they own the shit.

Again, nothing we do as traders make a measurable difference. Just like nothing we do as customers or voters or social media people makes a difference. Individually. The effects result from collective action, and adding our miniscule voice to the chorus of people saying "fuck you" to an evil company still matters ethically, in my view, whether it has a measurable effect on the company or not as an individual action. Its about not participating with evil.

The thing is, I think you think this too. Else why avoid tobacco companies?

Im not one dimensional. Im a hypocrite occasionally like everyone else. I acknowledge it. My quest for alpha exceeded my dislike for some companies. I do, however, always vote my shares for company decisions like board seats. So i am putting forth my meager voice.

If PM announced they were doubling their dividend tomorrow, it would be tough to say no.

Zog · Sep 17, 2022

This video is quite appropriate given the current topic.

It's funny him saying recency bias is a problem for investors when his entire thesis is recency bias because we've been in a bull run with qe for what seems like forever.

It's also quite telling he just assumes inflation will be vanquished and pe's will rocket without acknowledging what the fed vanquishing inflation will actually do to the economy to kill inflation.

Jysin · Sep 17, 2022

Lee is to bulls what Gartman is to bears.
Probably some truth somewhere in between.

Mist · Sep 17, 2022

Anecdote time:

None of our customers have put their major projects on hold or scaled them back, even the ones we thought might put projects on hold even before the current turbulence. These projects are multi-million dollar uplifts of core business systems to cloud-based systems. Also, none of these projects that involve Avaya phone/contact center systems have backed out or changed directions, despite Avaya's troubles.

We still have a >200million dollar backlog of bookings, for projects that can't complete due to lack of hardware (mostly Cisco still having supply chain issues on basic network shit, but also other vendors.) And most of our projects aren't very hardware-dependent, and we still have the backlog because it's such a bottleneck.

So, consumer-facing shit like streaming and social media might continue to go in the toilet and stay there for a while, but B2B tech/cloud/etc companies still seem strong.

I would look at stocks in companies that help other companies modernize their business systems, if you're looking for tech companies to invest in right now. Enabling hybrid/remote workforces, and enabling workers to do more work in less time, seems to be a big driver of these projects.

Gravel · Sep 17, 2022

Sludig said:
EVGA ceasing to make NVIDEA graphics cards, not sure how much that changes anything.

Also is this count as news?

Gonna dump all my other play money if I can put them into that ETF. Screw playing the game handicapped.

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 17, 2022

Mist said:
Anecdote time:

None of our customers have put their major projects on hold or scaled them back, even the ones we thought might put projects on hold even before the current turbulence. These projects are multi-million dollar uplifts of core business systems to cloud-based systems. Also, none of these projects that involve Avaya phone/contact center systems have backed out or changed directions, despite Avaya's troubles.

We still have a >200million dollar backlog of bookings, for projects that can't complete due to lack of hardware (mostly Cisco still having supply chain issues on basic network shit, but also other vendors.) And most of our projects aren't very hardware-dependent, and we still have the backlog because it's such a bottleneck.

So, consumer-facing shit like streaming and social media might continue to go in the toilet and stay there for a while, but B2B tech/cloud/etc companies still seem strong.

I would look at stocks in companies that help other companies modernize their business systems, if you're looking for tech companies to invest in right now. Enabling hybrid/remote workforces, and enabling workers to do more work in less time, seems to be a big driver of these projects.

You should let CRM know so the stock can get out of the toilet.

Burns · Sep 17, 2022

Gravel said:
Gonna dump all my other play money if I can put them into that ETF. Screw playing the game handicapped.

Members of congress have 45 days to report their trades, so if that's what they are making an ETF on, it will be way behind the ball and possibly help the politician's trade positions.

You can see what congress is reporting here:

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OU Ariakas · Sep 18, 2022

Mist said:
Anecdote time:

None of our customers have put their major projects on hold or scaled them back, even the ones we thought might put projects on hold even before the current turbulence. These projects are multi-million dollar uplifts of core business systems to cloud-based systems. Also, none of these projects that involve Avaya phone/contact center systems have backed out or changed directions, despite Avaya's troubles.

We still have a >200million dollar backlog of bookings, for projects that can't complete due to lack of hardware (mostly Cisco still having supply chain issues on basic network shit, but also other vendors.) And most of our projects aren't very hardware-dependent, and we still have the backlog because it's such a bottleneck.

So, consumer-facing shit like streaming and social media might continue to go in the toilet and stay there for a while, but B2B tech/cloud/etc companies still seem strong.

I would look at stocks in companies that help other companies modernize their business systems, if you're looking for tech companies to invest in right now. Enabling hybrid/remote workforces, and enabling workers to do more work in less time, seems to be a big driver of these projects.

I'll give you another prediction from me, someone that has been at the front of IT trends for almost 2 decades. The now is investing in companies that are hosting and moving applications into the cloud. SAP, ServiceNow, Cisco, Microsoft, AWS, Google, etc are now in the process of onboarding medium sized businesses with their cloud offerings.

The future are the Middleware and Platform as-a-service companies that enable any companies to integrate their home-grown applications with the previously mentioned SaaS applications that will allow them to truly exit the datacenter and not have to worry about Primary/Disaster Recovery locations and all the gear that goes inside of them. Companies that allow multi-cloud protection without actually having to sign contracts directly with the providers (M$, AWS, Google) will also do very well.

I am not some genius, but I saw the industry twenty years ago saying small businesses would never use virtual servers, then they said that small businesses would never need SANs (storage area networks), and now they are saying they will never full jump into the cloud. These were all based on the relative cost and now virtualization and SANs are commodities in datacenters. I resisted the idea that cloud would be commodity but the evidence is piling up that it will be within a decade.

Oh, and "near cloud" providers (Rackspace and other large co-lo companies) will also make big plays by becoming Cloud-as-a-service to survive.

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 18, 2022

OU Ariakas said:
I'll give you another prediction from me, someone that has been at the front of IT trends for almost 2 decades. The now is investing in companies that are hosting and moving applications into the cloud. SAP, ServiceNow, Cisco, Microsoft, AWS, Google, etc are now in the process of onboarding medium sized businesses with their cloud offerings.

The future are the Middleware and Platform as-a-service companies that enable any companies to integrate their home-grown applications with the previously mentioned SaaS applications that will allow them to truly exit the datacenter and not have to worry about Primary/Disaster Recovery locations and all the gear that goes inside of them. Companies that allow multi-cloud protection without actually having to sign contracts directly with the providers (M$, AWS, Google) will also do very well.

I am not some genius, but I saw the industry twenty years ago saying small businesses would never use virtual servers, then they said that small businesses would never need SANs (storage area networks), and now they are saying they will never full jump into the cloud. These were all based on the relative cost and now virtualization and SANs are commodities in datacenters. I resisted the idea that cloud would be commodity but the evidence is piling up that it will be within a decade.

Oh, and "near cloud" providers (Rackspace and other large co-lo companies) will also make big plays by becoming Cloud-as-a-service to survive.

I think the homerun is going to be finding an old boomer, left for dead, cash cow tech stock (CSCO, IBM type companies) that somehow reinvents itself as a big cloud player. They will need the name, cash and skill to make a real challenge to the big cloud boys. More than likely though those companies instead will decide to play it safe until they eventually pull a Kodak.

Gravel · Sep 18, 2022

OU Ariakas said:
I'll give you another prediction from me, someone that has been at the front of IT trends for almost 2 decades. The now is investing in companies that are hosting and moving applications into the cloud. SAP, ServiceNow, Cisco, Microsoft, AWS, Google, etc are now in the process of onboarding medium sized businesses with their cloud offerings.

The future are the Middleware and Platform as-a-service companies that enable any companies to integrate their home-grown applications with the previously mentioned SaaS applications that will allow them to truly exit the datacenter and not have to worry about Primary/Disaster Recovery locations and all the gear that goes inside of them. Companies that allow multi-cloud protection without actually having to sign contracts directly with the providers (M$, AWS, Google) will also do very well.

I am not some genius, but I saw the industry twenty years ago saying small businesses would never use virtual servers, then they said that small businesses would never need SANs (storage area networks), and now they are saying they will never full jump into the cloud. These were all based on the relative cost and now virtualization and SANs are commodities in datacenters. I resisted the idea that cloud would be commodity but the evidence is piling up that it will be within a decade.

Oh, and "near cloud" providers (Rackspace and other large co-lo companies) will also make big plays by becoming Cloud-as-a-service to survive.

My mind was blown when the DoD started using the cloud for classified projects. I went out to Colorado Springs right before covid to pitch our program to a group (Cloud One) that was a joint venture between the Air Force and some tech company.

They told us about how they had the support of some General who convinced the accreditation people that they could handle it all, and off they went. For anyone who knows how ridiculous the bureaucracy is, it was fascinating. It was very much like the typical tech company (open work spaces, places to goof off, kegs in the break room, etc), but a bunch of the people there were active duty military.

Mist · Sep 18, 2022

OU Ariakas said:
I'll give you another prediction from me, someone that has been at the front of IT trends for almost 2 decades. The now is investing in companies that are hosting and moving applications into the cloud. SAP, ServiceNow, Cisco, Microsoft, AWS, Google, etc are now in the process of onboarding medium sized businesses with their cloud offerings.

The future are the Middleware and Platform as-a-service companies that enable any companies to integrate their home-grown applications with the previously mentioned SaaS applications that will allow them to truly exit the datacenter and not have to worry about Primary/Disaster Recovery locations and all the gear that goes inside of them. Companies that allow multi-cloud protection without actually having to sign contracts directly with the providers (M$, AWS, Google) will also do very well.

I am not some genius, but I saw the industry twenty years ago saying small businesses would never use virtual servers, then they said that small businesses would never need SANs (storage area networks), and now they are saying they will never full jump into the cloud. These were all based on the relative cost and now virtualization and SANs are commodities in datacenters. I resisted the idea that cloud would be commodity but the evidence is piling up that it will be within a decade.

Oh, and "near cloud" providers (Rackspace and other large co-lo companies) will also make big plays by becoming Cloud-as-a-service to survive.

Yeah, I think the big growth in the near future is going to be a shift away from Big Tech to "medium tech" aka companies that get the thousands of midsize enterprises up to secure, modern standards on cost-effective solutions.

NetApp strikes me as a possible opportunity but AWS and Microsoft are still safe growth stocks.

Mist · Sep 18, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
I think the homerun is going to be finding an old boomer, left for dead, cash cow tech stock (CSCO, IBM type companies) that somehow reinvents itself as a big cloud player.

AVYA could technically fit this bill you know.

Zog · Sep 18, 2022

More doomer/gold bulls or just common sense?

I've always been curious if the market would just roar to insane levels on dollar destruction or would investors just dump assets?

Strong dollar is negative for assets, a collapse of the dollar also a negative for assets PRICED in dollars? There's a bit of an odd situation here where the collapse of the dollar might put us in emerging markets shoes with increased costs for doing business overseas.

Curious what some of your opinions would be on market reaction if the dollar would start to fall, I would assume markets would start to climb on a weakening dollar, to a point where investors start worrying the dollar is falling and doesn't stop.

Mist · Sep 18, 2022

Every prediction of the downfall of the dollar in the past 20 years has been wrong so far, despite our best efforts to devalue our own currency and run our country like a complete clownshow.

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