Investing General Discussion

I think June lows by end of week is a huge ask. That is another ~20 points down on SPY. I think 370-373 is more realistic. (The last turn in July before we went higher)

Also with you in that making bold bets here is perilous. There will be some digestion of Fed overnight.

Jysin said:

"This could be a Fed decision day with good news, says Jim Cramer"



Ummm.. we're fucked.

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Fuckin Cramer does it again.

Powell speech notes:

14:30 (US) Fed Chair Powell: We are strongly committed to bringing inflation to 2% goal; Ongoing hikes will be appropriate - post rate decision statement
- Surveys of inflation expectations have improved but that's no grounds for complacency on inflation
- Fed is aware inflation poses significant hardships
- We will be looking over coming months for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down
- Reiterates at some point it will become appropriate to slow pace of rate hikes; We will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting
- Likely we will need restrictive policy stance for some time; Historical record cautions against premature rate cuts
- Price stability is our bedrock; Economy does not work without price stability
- Fed has the tools and resolve to restore price stability; Inflation remains well above 2% goal; We will keep at it until confident job is done
- Continues to see risks to inflation weighted to the upside
- Price pressure is evident across a broad range of goods and services
- May see some softening in labor market conditions and softening in growth
- Fed is moving its policy stance purposely
- Economy has slowed from 2021
- Weaker economic growth abroad is restraining exports
- Housing market has weakened significantly
- Jobs market has remained extremely tight; Wage growth is elevated; Labor market continues to be out of balance
- Expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time

Powell Q&A notes:

14:39 (US) Fed Chair Powell: Main message has not changed since Jackson Hole; For reducing rates we would want to be very confident inflation is moving back down to 2% - post rate decision Q&A
- We may slow the pace of hikes at some point to assess effects that have occurred due to initial hikes
- There is a possibility we would go to a certain level of rates and stay there for some time but we're not there yet; There is still a ways to go on rates
- Deceleration in housing prices is a good thing; We may have to go through a correction in housing market to get back to normal price growth
- Likely rates will get to levels seen in the SEP
- To get inflation back down, we think we'll need softening in labor market and below trend economic growth; So far we have only seen modest evidence the labor market is cooling off
- Likely to take some time to see full effects of changing financial conditions on inflation
- Part of inflation we've seen has been caused by supply shocks
- Longer run inflation expectations this cycle have remained fairly well anchored; That will make it easier to bring inflation down
- Commodity prices look like they may have peaked for now
- Restoring price stability while achieving a soft landing is challenging; No one knows if this process will lead to recession or how deep that might be
- You want real rates to be positive across the yield curve
- There is a fairly large group that would see 100bps in hikes by year end
- Inflation has not eased despite some supply side healing; Core PCE readings are not where we expected or want to be; Still discovering what the level is that we need to get to
- Not expecting to be selling MBS over near term but something we may consider down the road
- Reiterates this is a strong, robust economy; People still have savings on balance sheet; US states are flush with cash
- Overall good reason to think economy will be reasonably strong; Certainly possibility growth could be stronger than forecast and that's a good thing
- There is no painless way to bring inflation down
- Expects to see inflation to start moving down next year and year after that; Once you're on the path to lower inflation things will start to feel better
- Shelter costs are going to say high for some time

- Deceleration in housing prices is a good thing; We may have to go through a correction in housing market to get back to normal price growth
- Not expecting to be selling MBS over near term but something we may consider down the road

?????

This doesn't really make sense to me.

If housing needs a correction and you expect shelter costs to remain high, why the fuck wouldn't you double tap the housing market to dry up housing liquidity?

Sanrith Descartes said:

On the bright side I might be able to jump right back in on those $25 strike MP puts.

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Think it'll go down that low over the next month or so? Been pretty stable above 30s for awhile.

Jysin said:

Powell speech notes:

14:30 (US) Fed Chair Powell: We are strongly committed to bringing inflation to 2% goal; Ongoing hikes will be appropriate - post rate decision statement
- Surveys of inflation expectations have improved but that's no grounds for complacency on inflation
- Fed is aware inflation poses significant hardships
- We will be looking over coming months for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down
- Reiterates at some point it will become appropriate to slow pace of rate hikes; We will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting
- Likely we will need restrictive policy stance for some time; Historical record cautions against premature rate cuts
- Price stability is our bedrock; Economy does not work without price stability
- Fed has the tools and resolve to restore price stability; Inflation remains well above 2% goal; We will keep at it until confident job is done
- Continues to see risks to inflation weighted to the upside
- Price pressure is evident across a broad range of goods and services
- May see some softening in labor market conditions and softening in growth
- Fed is moving its policy stance purposely
- Economy has slowed from 2021
- Weaker economic growth abroad is restraining exports
- Housing market has weakened significantly
- Jobs market has remained extremely tight; Wage growth is elevated; Labor market continues to be out of balance
- Expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time

Powell Q&A notes:

14:39 (US) Fed Chair Powell: Main message has not changed since Jackson Hole; For reducing rates we would want to be very confident inflation is moving back down to 2% - post rate decision Q&A
- We may slow the pace of hikes at some point to assess effects that have occurred due to initial hikes
- There is a possibility we would go to a certain level of rates and stay there for some time but we're not there yet; There is still a ways to go on rates
- Deceleration in housing prices is a good thing; We may have to go through a correction in housing market to get back to normal price growth
- Likely rates will get to levels seen in the SEP
- To get inflation back down, we think we'll need softening in labor market and below trend economic growth; So far we have only seen modest evidence the labor market is cooling off
- Likely to take some time to see full effects of changing financial conditions on inflation
- Part of inflation we've seen has been caused by supply shocks
- Longer run inflation expectations this cycle have remained fairly well anchored; That will make it easier to bring inflation down
- Commodity prices look like they may have peaked for now
- Restoring price stability while achieving a soft landing is challenging; No one knows if this process will lead to recession or how deep that might be
- You want real rates to be positive across the yield curve
- There is a fairly large group that would see 100bps in hikes by year end
- Inflation has not eased despite some supply side healing; Core PCE readings are not where we expected or want to be; Still discovering what the level is that we need to get to
- Not expecting to be selling MBS over near term but something we may consider down the road
- Reiterates this is a strong, robust economy; People still have savings on balance sheet; US states are flush with cash
- Overall good reason to think economy will be reasonably strong; Certainly possibility growth could be stronger than forecast and that's a good thing
- There is no painless way to bring inflation down
- Expects to see inflation to start moving down next year and year after that; Once you're on the path to lower inflation things will start to feel better
- Shelter costs are going to say high for some time

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Go back and read statements in 2007 and 2008 where they kept saying the economy was strong up until the moment everything collapsed.

Sanrith Descartes said:

No. Thats why I sell those puts. I collect the premium. If i did get assigned, im ok owning at $25

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Ah i see. Makes sense.

All in full leverage QQQ!

Sanrith Descartes said:

TQQQ volume is 70m+ already this morning.

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I'm gonna be rich!

Of course, I am not really. I'm on a cash account, and I dont ever go all in.

Tesla falling through all support today (20D and 200D). Weaker relative to an already weak market.

US10Y 3.7%, lol

Sanrith Descartes said:

Wrote some deep out of the money puts on TQQQ. OCT 21 expiry (29 days), $15 strike, 31 cent premium. This would roughly be the equivalent of QQQ at about $250. Thats roughly a July 2020 number. If I end up being assigned, then we got more to worry about than me owning TQQQ at $15.

IV on TQQQ is 98. There is some good money to be made writing deep, deep out of the money puts on it for Oct. For the record, the $15 strike is the lowest option available on the chain currently for Oct 21 expiry.

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Nice find. I am in.