Investing General Discussion

Creslin · Oct 13, 2022

Mist said:
When your fundamentals change this Rents are insane, but how do you propose to fix that without SOSHULIZM? Would I like the government to come in and subsidize the construction of 20 million homes? Yes, but most conservatives and even centrist dems would not.

(PS: I've given my notice to my current employer twice this year and been retained with a 10k and 15k raise respectively. The inflation is me.)

housing is crazy in part due to governments, modern building code is so over engineered for basic residential that it really drives down supply.

if you could build cheaper starter homes people would be better off. Govt artificially limits it in so many ways it is crazy.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

Jysin said:
This is my take on my TQQQ $15 (21OCT exp) that Sanrith called out. I am not at all opposed to owning TQQQ at that price (minus premium collected).

I have collected premium twice on this trade. Took 60% profits off the table on the last bounce. Re-entered recently back near original trade entry.

I paperhanded mine for breakeven earlier but I might jump back in the trade at this point.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

52 is gonna be my new lucky number.

OU Ariakas · Oct 13, 2022

I usually don't care about big downturns because that means all the 401k contributions are dollar cost averaging like a motherfucker right now; but I have a rollover 401k with Fidelity that has no money going into it and thinking of it just sitting there going down just feels bad. I guess I'm getting a little bit of a boost since the dividends are reinvested and those are getting the nice new low prices, but I don't think that is going to make me a few percentage points better when the market rebounds. Maybe I'm wrong and those reinvestments will really show a difference.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

People plowing money into JPM ahead of their earnings report tomorrow morning. Those are some brave fuckers.
JPM +3.3%

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

Semis going cra-cra today.

Gravel · Oct 13, 2022

OU Ariakas said:
I usually don't care about big downturns because that means all the 401k contributions are dollar cost averaging like a motherfucker right now; but I have a rollover 401k with Fidelity that has no money going into it and thinking of it just sitting there going down just feels bad. I guess I'm getting a little bit of a boost since the dividends are reinvested and those are getting the nice new low prices, but I don't think that is going to make me a few percentage points better when the market rebounds. Maybe I'm wrong and those reinvestments will really show a difference.

How do you think I feel where I retired a year ago, literally at the peak. I'm not making any contributions anymore and I'm down...a lot (enough to buy a house a lot).

Aldarion · Oct 13, 2022

grabbed some more SOXL this morning at 6.45, wish I'd been able to get more!

Jysin · Oct 13, 2022

SPY green on the day.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

Jysin said:
SPY green on the day.

I have seen this movie before. Im pretty sure I know how it ends.

Jysin · Oct 13, 2022

This sets up a bounce. Got everyone short on CPI, trade moves against them, covers start happening, then all indicies go green, people fomo back into longs thinking they "missed the bottom". VIX down 4.5% and yields retreating (very slightly).

All on the back of a very technically oversold market coming into today's print. This has legs to go for a bit.

Creslin · Oct 13, 2022

Jysin said:
This sets up a bounce. Got everyone short on CPI, trade moves against them, covers start happening, then all indicies go green, people fomo back into longs thinking they "missed the bottom". VIX down 4.5% and yields retreating (very slightly).

All on the back of a very technically oversold market coming into today's print. This has legs to go for a bit.

This has been the pattern for every cpi miss since April. Day of is bad news that crashes but then goes green by mid day. Following day is then blood red across the board.

Blazin · Oct 13, 2022

Creslin said:
This has been the pattern for every cpi miss since April. Day of is bad news that crashes but then goes green by mid day. Following day is then blood red across the board.

Except this isnt true at all. You just randomly making shit up?

Mist · Oct 13, 2022

OU Ariakas said:
I agree with most of what you are saying besides housing. Rents are insane because people a.) value the idea of "living close" so much that they are willing to bid up rents higher inside of cities and close suburbs instead of saving some money and living further away

I think you have this backwards. Rents across the country have gone way up because people who can move out of the cities have, pushing up rents and other prices in places that don't normally see inflated prices.

The South Park episode last season on real estate actually did a good job summing this up. People showing up in rural towns with their Teslas, buying up all the properties.

High rents used to be confined to certain high growth urban areas or suburbs nearby. Now high rents are everywhere, because the people with money can work anywhere.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

Blazin said:
Except this isnt true at all. You just randomly making shit up?

Jysin · Oct 13, 2022

Yields given up 3/4 of their move today. Leaves some room for continued bounce in the markets. VIX still down >4%

At some point, people are going to start looking past the bad news and want to participate and get positioned. Today's fomo move proved that in spades.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

Mist · Oct 13, 2022

Jysin said:
Yields given up 3/4 of their move today. Leaves some room for continued bounce in the markets. VIX still down >4%

At some point, people are going to start looking past the bad news and want to participate and get positioned. Today's fomo move proved that in spades.

Right, if inflation is persistent, might as well buy equities now while the dollar is strong and equities are down, because inflation will eventually hit equities prices long-term like what happened over the 80s.

Blazin · Oct 13, 2022

Blazin said:
Traps can work both ways, could be an interesting day. If we were coming off a week or two of gains I'd say look out below for a 4-5% down day. Coming off red for six days in a row and eight weeks of weakness setting up for a some surprise move. Not saying we can't go lower but definitely want the ear to the rail, watching action and don't become complacent that the current trend is a sure thing.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 13, 2022

You know today is a bullshit day when even T is going up.

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