Investing General Discussion

Flobee · Apr 30, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
I know that's an over reaction, but the nagging is there

Exactly!

You're both right in that I'm likely looking too narrowly. That's the risk of trying to learn about something this big I suppose.

I just have trouble with any sort of economic optimism following a nearly complete productivity halt. Consumer fear will conceivably depress future spending. I can see being bullish in the 6-12 month time-frame (especially if they keep printing $$$) but anything further out than that seems risky to me even with limited understanding of all the plumbing. Betting on America does have a strong record though.

Furry · Apr 30, 2020

The ivory towers in tech aren't getting slaughtered yet, but that's not too surprising, since even people in mudhuts spend money on internet and phones. If people think that's good enough to ignore the fundamental anarchy in the smaller side of business at the moment, I don't get it. The fed has taken on trillions of junk bonds, the treasury payed out trillions in bailouts. Think about it, we've effectively raised our debt by almost 50% in 2 months of a minor disease that will be going on a long time more. Revenues will be down, and do you really think they aren't going to pass more baillouts to get things started again.

The taxman is going to be fucking starving.

Blazin · Apr 30, 2020

Furry said:
The fed has taken on trillions of junk bonds, the treasury payed out trillions in bailouts.

I know accuracy is very important to you so it should be noted the Fed has not made a single purchase in the junk bond market. They promised to, and so far that seems to have been sufficient.

Blazin · Apr 30, 2020

Powell must have slept in and didn't get this released at the 830 window. Market has now started going up since we got our hit.

Federal Reserve Board announces it is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced it is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program. As part of its broad effort to s

www.federalreserve.gov

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 30, 2020

Emotion is the # 2 killer of a stock portfolio ( # 1 being buying USO on Robinhood). Look at the data and invest (or not) accordingly. At least 75% of the time when I make a trade based on emotion or gut feeling I end up losing money.

This is also the hardest part of investing. We are emotional creatures.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 30, 2020

Blazin said:
Powell must have slept in and didn't get this released at the 830 window. Market has now started going up since we got our hit.

Federal Reserve Board announces it is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced it is expanding the scope and eligibility for the Main Street Lending Program. As part of its broad effort to s

www.federalreserve.gov

I think he was holding it as an ace in his sleeve in Hopes that big tech earnings would have been enough.

Locnar · Apr 30, 2020

Zzen said:
30M unemployed. Un fucking real.

And 99 percent of them are making more on unemployement than they were working. Lets stop calling it unemployment and start calling it the great American paid vacation.

Actually isint this what Europe does every year? Give everyone a couple months paid vacation? Feels good, I don't have to go back to work until at least October.

Gravel · Apr 30, 2020

Zzen said:
30M unemployed. Un fucking real.

Not sure what the actual employment rate is, but some NYT article I saw used 123M in early April. That'd put us at 24.4%, only half a percent off the Great Depression.

Blazin · Apr 30, 2020

Gravel said:
Not sure what the actual employment rate is, but some NYT article I saw used 123M in early April. That'd put us at 24.4%, only half a percent off the Great Depression.

While this is true, there was no safety net then. This time we have ~20% unemployed with most making more than they were when employed. Also unlike the 1930s there is a significant portion of income in this country that has nothing to do with active employment (Social Security, Pensions, etc.) The portion of our economy represented by the public markets is far more resilient and safeguarded than it was previously. The hit to GDP from this economic decline will be no where near as deep as one would expect from a work stoppage of this magnitude.

I'm not saying there isn't concerns, in fact there are massive concerns, but there are also massive mitigation measures that must be considered when looking at previous downturns.

Furry · Apr 30, 2020

Blazin said:
This time we have ~20% unemployed with most making more than they were when employed.

Socialism is known for boosting the economy.

TomServo · Apr 30, 2020

Blazin said:
Facebook beat as well on Revenue

What shutdown?

But isn't advertising supposed to be down?

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 30, 2020

grumblethorn said:
But isn't advertising supposed to be down?

Yes. Surprisingly FB wasn't down as much as some had predicted in this department. And they do have other revenue streams (like selling your personal data and private dick pics).

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 30, 2020

FVRR Puts already up 15%. This one is going to be like shooting ducts in a barrel... or buying AMZN last month.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 30, 2020

AMZN misses badly on earnings. I did not expect that.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 30, 2020

AMZN first move down 6%
Good thing it isn't a big part of the SP500 index.

How the fuck do you miss earnings by 20%? When you are one of like 2 businesses actually selling things to people?

Blazin · Apr 30, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
AMZN first move down 6%
Good thing it isn't a big part of the SP500 index.

Ummm, maybe this is a joke I don't get. Amazon is the 3rd largest holding of the S&P

LachiusTZ · Apr 30, 2020

People lose jobs, almost nothing on Amazon is essential

Blazin · Apr 30, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
AMZN misses badly on earnings. I did not expect that.

Should not have been a suprise at all, Bezos just turns the spending on whenever he sees fit. Revenue was a beat and they are forecasting a huge 2nd qtr rev.

So far it's back to....yesterday's price. This is not even close to a sell off.

LachiusTZ · Apr 30, 2020

Blazin said:
Should not have been a suprise at all, Bezos just turns the spending on whenever he sees fit. Revenue was a beat and they are forecasting a huge 2nd qtr rev.

So far it's back to....yesterday's price. This is not even close to a sell off.

Or that...

Lol

Jysin · Apr 30, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
AMZN first move down 6%
Good thing it isn't a big part of the SP500 index.

How the fuck do you miss earnings by 20%? When you are one of like 2 businesses actually selling things to people?

IIRC, Amazon restricted FBA sellers and prioritising "essential" items, delaying regular orders. I think France had Amazon sales halted altogether.

FBA sales (3rd party sellers) typically relied on cheap goods from China (Alibaba etc) to re-list on Amazon. China had been shut down for months, so certainly had an impact on those listings. Amazon always gets a cut of those sales, which were basically cratered.

Here is a quick synapse:

Amazon Sellers and Coronavirus: Everything You Need to Know

With the recent changes to Amazon's shipping priorities, sellers are wondering how their businesses will survive. Learn what you can do to outlast COVID-19.

www.junglescout.com

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