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Blazin

Blazin

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Hmm, SPY was almost a straight slope up today, kinda unusual. Hopefully it can break through to 4100 or even 4150... but eh.

Blazin Blazin any thoughts on market conditions lately? The prognosticators I've been reading are anticipating a big drop in the market after the 1st of Dec or thereabouts. Like down to 3200 levels.
Click to expand...

Don't have time for the paragraphs I'd like to write about "predicting the future" line of thinking, but will at least say I don't try to predict the future. I read the weight of the evidence in hand to understand what is most likely to occur in the short term. That evidence moves and shifts at all times. The goal is to not predict the unknowable it's to notice the subtle changes quickly and being open minded to change and having a good understanding from the past what those changes may look like.

If you want my gut speculation, I "believe" the bear market is not over, that is based on past behaviors of traders in similar situations and is a probabilistic statement. This trend leg is likely to take us to 405-410 for the next test. I can't see beyond that because there is no edge in guessing how that test will play out. IF the market can past that test and clear the 410 range then 430 becomes the next challenge. What would that look like? I'd say we would have 1-2 weeks of consolidation trading in the 409-417 range would be the bullish look around the first week and a half of Dec

We are in a holiday week with light volume that historically leans positive. So if we end this week around 405-410 the tea leaves to look for will be on Nov 30 where we have powell speaking and the market at a pivotal junction.

It's tough trading because when bear market rallies fail they tend to fail spectacularly quickly given little time for participants to adjust. Upon failure does not mean that we go back to the lows, uptrends are created from fits and starts that are able to hold higher lows. There is plenty of technical room and support below here for the market to re-find it's footing even if we were to have a 3-5% down week. The most positive signal would look for being bullish would be 390 holding on a pullback.

Psychologically this is tough on traders because they may want to lock in their gains in the 410 area and the idea of waiting to see if 390 holds means being in a much more precarious position profit/loss wise at the point of decision.

If the low is in, then there is still time to let the weight of the evidence shift to a more positive footing and put long term money to work even at higher prices when evidence of a sustainable uptrend is more clear.

Have to go busy morning... Where do I believe it goes in a bear case, well that hasn't changed
 
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TomServo

TomServo

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OU Ariakas said:
I know this is a day late, and I understand why you could argue that this move should be viewed from the eyes of Disney's board and that they are the ones that thought Chapek was the weight dragging them down, but that means those ultra-savvy business people on the board are fucking myopic. Iger caused the problems and Chapek was trying to clean them up. Critical Drinker nails it and you can expect them to go to new lows with Iger.

Click to expand...

Critical Drinker is a fucking retard. Chapek was the Biden to disney. Dude fucked up a wet dream. he wasnt cleaning shit up.
 
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OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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TomServo said:
Critical Drinker is a fucking retard. Chapek was the Biden to disney. Dude fucked up a wet dream. he wasnt cleaning shit up.
Click to expand...

I'm sure he is a retard and that Iger is going to come in and do something different than he did before. Maybe he will buy another franchise and drive it into unprofitability.
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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Blazin said:
Don't have time for the paragraphs I'd like to write about "predicting the future" line of thinking, but will at least say I don't try to predict the future. I read the weight of the evidence in hand to understand what is most likely to occur in the short term. That evidence moves and shifts at all times. The goal is to not predict the unknowable it's to notice the subtle changes quickly and being open minded to change and having a good understanding from the past what those changes may look like.

If you want my gut speculation, I "believe" the bear market is not over, that is based on past behaviors of traders in similar situations and is a probabilistic statement. This trend leg is likely to take us to 405-410 for the next test. I can't see beyond that because there is no edge in guessing how that test will play out. IF the market can past that test and clear the 410 range then 430 becomes the next challenge. What would that look like? I'd say we would have 1-2 weeks of consolidation trading in the 409-417 range would be the bullish look around the first week and a half of Dec

We are in a holiday week with light volume that historically leans positive. So if we end this week around 405-410 the tea leaves to look for will be on Nov 30 where we have powell speaking and the market at a pivotal junction.

It's tough trading because when bear market rallies fail they tend to fail spectacularly quickly given little time for participants to adjust. Upon failure does not mean that we go back to the lows, uptrends are created from fits and starts that are able to hold higher lows. There is plenty of technical room and support below here for the market to re-find it's footing even if we were to have a 3-5% down week. The most positive signal would look for being bullish would be 390 holding on a pullback.

Psychologically this is tough on traders because they may want to lock in their gains in the 410 area and the idea of waiting to see if 390 holds means being in a much more precarious position profit/loss wise at the point of decision.

If the low is in, then there is still time to let the weight of the evidence shift to a more positive footing and put long term money to work even at higher prices when evidence of a sustainable uptrend is more clear.

Have to go busy morning... Where do I believe it goes in a bear case, well that hasn't changed
Click to expand...
Thank you.

I actually put more weight in your 'predictions' than others I read because you've been proven right more often in the last 1.5 year than anyone else I've been reading. Which is why I asked 🙂
 
Haus

Haus

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Edaw said:
Click to expand...

I don't think this is a surprise to a single person.... Makes every bit of business sense in the world. As I joked before, let's see what the content moderation looks like when it's a bunch of rural folks from central Texas manning the consoles.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
Thank you.

I actually put more weight in your 'predictions' than others I read because you've been proven right more often in the last 1.5 year than anyone else I've been reading. Which is why I asked 🙂
Click to expand...
Money Man GIF
 
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Mist

Mist

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Haus said:
I don't think this is a surprise to a single person.... Makes every bit of business sense in the world. As I joked before, let's see what the content moderation looks like when it's a bunch of rural folks from central Texas manning the consoles.
Click to expand...
That's not how any of this works. Content moderators for Meta and Twitter are outsourced contractors. Musk wants to remove moderators entirely and just go algorithmic. "Policy decisions" aka permanent suspensions are made arbitrarily at the very top, prior and currently.
 
Haus

Haus

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Mist said:
That's not how any of this works. Content moderators for Meta and Twitter are outsourced contractors. Musk wants to remove moderators entirely and just go algorithmic. "Policy decisions" aka permanent suspensions are made arbitrarily at the very top, prior and currently.
Click to expand...
Yes, except that Musk has also initiated a huge "insourcing" and "in-office" movement. This would indicate to me that he would have whatever moderation with a pulse staffed at the HQ, not remote contractors. I do agree that he will push for a far more leaning agnostic automated moderation to some degree, but they will always have some flesh and blood curation going on.
 
Gravel

Gravel

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Driving through Nashville about an hour ago and saw a Rivian.

Wasn't sure where else to post that. I laughed and my wife wasn't sure why.
 
Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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Haus said:
Yes, except that Musk has also initiated a huge "insourcing" and "in-office" movement. This would indicate to me that he would have whatever moderation with a pulse staffed at the HQ, not remote contractors. I do agree that he will push for a far more leaning agnostic automated moderation to some degree, but they will always have some flesh and blood curation going on.
Click to expand...
Musk wants to cut costs dramatically, and he needs to keep costs very low for 2+ years to even start getting into the black again. I don't think they will be hiring in-office moderators. Costs-per-employee are high at tech companies anywhere in the US. Being a content moderator is also a high-turnover, high-burnout job with a lot of associated mental health costs, even in a place as lax as Texas. Being a social media content moderator is basically straight out of A Clockwork Orange; it's just an all-day, all-night barrage of child porn and gore, where you're only given a few seconds to make each decision. An insanity factory, basically.

If he was going to hire in-house moderators for some reason, I would bet he would hire them at a satellite office in another country. But even then, they will have just enough human moderators to keep blatantly illegal content offline. The idea of having a NOC full of good-ole-boys in Texas doing this incredibly labor-intensive, low-skill, mentally damaging job in-between shitposting is not remotely realistic.
 
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Mist

Mist

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Blazin said:
Psychologically this is tough on traders because they may want to lock in their gains in the 410 area and the idea of waiting to see if 390 holds means being in a much more precarious position profit/loss wise at the point of decision.
Click to expand...
Really tempting to lock this in right now:

1669235693752.png


But then no idea where I'd put the money anyway other than sit on it at 3.x% interest.
 
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Falstaff

Falstaff

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Musk already said he isn’t moving the HQ to Texas but he’s a liar and a megalomaniac and will change his mind as soon as someone makes fun of him for it.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
Driving through Nashville about an hour ago and saw a Rivian.

Wasn't sure where else to post that. I laughed and my wife wasn't sure why.
Click to expand...
The headlights look like something out of Disney Cars movie. Maybe before I die I will get my Cybertruck.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Wrote covered calls again on my T. $19.50 strike expiry in Dec. Got 20 cent premium. The goal is to make at least 1% a month in extra alpha premium combined with the 7%+ annual dividend. I am up over 15% in stock appreciation as a bonus.
 
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