Investing General Discussion

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Jysin

Jysin

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Better transcript:

10:07 (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter): Today's jobs data does not change my outlook on the economy; I see rates moving above 5% and then holding there until policy grips the economy - CNBC
- You could make the argument that the jobs market is getting tighter; Atlanta district jobs market is 'rock solid'; We need to reduce imbalances in the labor market
- I see rates moving above 5% in 2023 and most important thing will be to hold there well into 2024
- Nationally the jobs market has stepped back a bit since the summer
- Wages are not driving the dynamic right now, but bares watching
- Unemployment is going to rise a little bit; In my SEP forecast I have unemployment rising to 4% this year
- Recession is not my base case; If a recession does occur it will likely be short and shallow
- Comfortable with 50 or 25bps hike at the next meeting
- Have to be cautious as we get more restrictive and calibrate effectively to not cause a spike in layoffs
- Financial stability is always a concern
- Currently the most difficult inflation pressures are in the services sector
- We don't want to claim victory too early and have a repeat of the 1970's
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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For what it is worth, Bostic is known to be quite hawkish and is also a non-voter.
 
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Aldarion

Aldarion

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it'd be neat if there was a way to enter orders for trades without seeing your total account balance (obviously cash available for trade would still need to be available). Like a separate login page that takes you only to the trades page and doesnt allow access to the total

maybe this belongs in the terrible and appealing inventions thread. or maybe it already actually exists

hypothetically. asking for a friend. and all that
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Aldarion said:
it'd be neat if there was a way to enter orders for trades without seeing your total account balance (obviously cash available for trade would still need to be available). Like a separate login page that takes you only to the trades page and doesnt allow access to the total

maybe this belongs in the terrible and appealing inventions thread. or maybe it already actually exists

hypothetically. asking for a friend. and all that
Click to expand...
acct.jpg


Shia Labeouf Magic GIF
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Aldarion said:
it'd be neat if there was a way to enter orders for trades without seeing your total account balance (obviously cash available for trade would still need to be available). Like a separate login page that takes you only to the trades page and doesnt allow access to the total

maybe this belongs in the terrible and appealing inventions thread. or maybe it already actually exists

hypothetically. asking for a friend. and all that
Click to expand...
Fidelity trade ticket does this. It only shows cash available to trade, not total balance.

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Mist

Mist

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Well I got the JEPI orders in for my HSA before this rebound took off but I didn't get my ROTH contributions in yet. I might do those like 500 a week for a few weeks to average it out.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Cathie truly is just some rando retail investor.

finance.yahoo.com

Cathie Wood Sells 99% of Silvergate Stake as Customers Flee

(Bloomberg) -- One of Cathie Wood’s funds sold virtually all of its shares in Silvergate Capital Corp. after the cryptocurrency-focused bank announced that it was forced to sell assets at a steep loss as customers pulled out most of their deposits during the fourth quarter.Most Read from...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
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sleevedraw

sleevedraw

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Gravel said:
If you're only looking for a year, max out the I-Bonds which are paying almost 7% right now.

After that, I'd say there are a lot of other options like bonds and CD's which, with interest rates higher than they've been in forever, should give you a decent return.

If you're going longer than a year, well, everything is on sale.
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For extremely long time horizon buy-and-holders like me who still have 30+ years left to retirement and only do an annual rebalance, is there a general consensus on whether to buy growth vs. value index for this year?

I know value didn't tank nearly as bad as growth in 2022, growth is generally buyable on fire sale right now, and on an extremely long timeframe, both are almost guaranteed to make money, but are there any externalities that could cause growth to melt down and have another comparatively shitty year relative to value?
 
Blazin

Blazin

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sleevedraw said:
For extremely long time horizon buy-and-holders like me who still have 30+ years left to retirement and only do an annual rebalance, is there a general consensus on whether to buy growth vs. value index for this year?

I know value didn't tank nearly as bad as growth in 2022, growth is generally buyable on fire sale right now, and on an extremely long timeframe, both are almost guaranteed to make money, but are there any externalities that could cause growth to melt down and have another comparatively shitty year relative to value?
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I tend to view value as always a trap in the long term. What we call value is profitable companies that aren't growing any faster than inflation. In a bull market they are shunned and when PE's deflate they outperform. People like them for their stability but over the course of decades its growth stocks that are going to compound your portfolio while Ford and VZ sit unchanged for a decade.

That doesn't mean I hate them, in fact I often use them in my options strategies because of their dependability/predictability, but for someone looking for long term growth picking companies that don't grow, or rarely grow outside of debt funded acquisitions are a poor choice.

Right now in particular I think value stocks are grossly overvalued. PG, KO, CAT type stocks are solidly in the over bought category. I was big on healthcare last year now we have left the bargain levels and are entering the extended area. That doesn't mean they can't go further, market loves to swing too far. Stocks like ABBV, MRK, PFE etc. have had great runs and people are likely to continue to pour into t hem due to years of underperformance.

TLDR; I think nasdaq index based ETFs are the best choice for career long dollar cost averaging
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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To add on to Blazin Blazin , Lets look at T, a classic value stock. If you bought it 5 years ago and held it for its tasty dividend (which got cut last year in the WBD spin-off) you would have paid $29 a share. You would have gotten roughly $2.04 a year for years 1-4 in dividends and $1.11 last year. The value of your WBD spinoff is $2.71. So all in all after 5 years of ownership the effective value of your share of T is $31.51 (+/- a few pennies). So five years of ownership would have returned 8.7%.

Now, this isnt to say its crap. Its only mostly crap. Stocks like this have a place in some people's portfolios. Especially perhaps in retired fixed income folks. Who are willing to take low alpha in a consistent return for very low beta and risk. These companies usually have dominant market positions and are cash cows. They just have pretty much zero revenue growth. You get what you see.

Finally, these stocks can also have a place in an "actively" managed portfolio. The advantage to low beta is they are very predictable. And you can use this predictability to make alpha selling covered calls with them. Now lets return to that 8.7% return over 5 years and say you added 12% a year selling deep out of the money covered calls on it. Now you are at 68.7% return. So 13.75% a year. Its still not NVDA or AAPL, but it is respectable considering how very low risk it is and it would beat the historical annual average return of the S&P 500.

The trick to the market is there are lots of ways to win and the game is finding those ways to win that work for you and your specific goals and risk tolerances.

1673105171388.png
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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And to add on to my post about T above. It seems whomever was holding my covered call options decided to call them early to steal the dividend as it goes ex-dividend on Monday. I checked my account this morning and my position was gone. I checked my options expiry to make sure I hadnt fucked up the date and nope, it was 1/20 expiry. The option holder executed early for roughly a 42 cent per share profit. Sneaky little fucker. Early execution happens so rarely that I had actually forgotten about it being a possibility. Ah well. Made about 22% total in two months.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
And to add on to my post about T above. It seems whomever was holding my covered call options decided to call them early to steal the dividend as it goes ex-dividend on Monday. I checked my account this morning and my position was gone. I checked my options expiry to make sure I hadnt fucked up the date and nope, it was 1/20 expiry. The option holder executed early for roughly a 42 cent per share profit. Sneaky little fucker. Early execution happens so rarely that I had actually forgotten about it being a possibility. Ah well. Made about 22% total in two months.
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That avatar has to go saw that on my notifications and was like wtf is this 12yr boy loving pedophile responding to me
 
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