Investing General Discussion

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Pops

Avatar of War Slayer
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Not sure who/what you're responding to there. But if you want a really in depth read on why I don't give too much of a shit about CAPE, go here: Fixing the Shiller CAPE: Accounting, Dividends, and the Permanently High Plateau

I pointed out GAAP before:



So a "high" CAPE is meaningless because it's using a definition that doesn't fit anymore.

Further, as I mentioned, once 2008-2009 fall off the 10 year average, the CAPE will fall dramatically. We've got an average that is based on 10 data points that gets heavily skewed. That's not good statistics. And even STILL with that, a flat year would bring it back in line with the shitty historical.

TMF: September 3, 1929 level reached / Berkshire Hathaway
 

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
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You would probably like reading this guy Pops Pops . He's been pretty negative on the market all for the last 40% of run up, but to be fair never seen him call for a crash or say to not go in just tries to educate people about what is moving markets

(no title)

edit...I don't read him from that page, but follow him on Seeking Alpha. Looking at his website I see see political crap as well which isn't ever posted on SA
 

Pops

Avatar of War Slayer
8,136
21,317
You would probably like reading this guy Pops Pops . He's been pretty negative on the market all for the last 40% of run up, but to be fair never seen him call for a crash or say to not go in just tries to educate people about what is moving markets

(no title)

edit...I don't read him from that page, but follow him on Seeking Alpha. Looking at his website I see see political crap as well which isn't ever posted on SA
Haha. I already hate his website name.
 

Pops

Avatar of War Slayer
8,136
21,317
You would probably like reading this guy Pops Pops . He's been pretty negative on the market all for the last 40% of run up, but to be fair never seen him call for a crash or say to not go in just tries to educate people about what is moving markets

(no title)

edit...I don't read him from that page, but follow him on Seeking Alpha. Looking at his website I see see political crap as well which isn't ever posted on SA

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4094229-snb-18-million-apple-shares-plunging-swissie

I have read his SA stuff. Here's this. Can't say it's a bad investment, but how many other banks play this game instead of lending.
 

kudos

<Banned>
2,363
695
This government job needs to hurry up and get me hired so I don't have to worry about the impending recession. I have said it's coming any day now for the last year. It's about time. There's going to be a lot of fucking layoffs in the private sector.

I've been saving a nice stash for when it does hit though just so I can make bank. I was too young to take advantage of the last recession. My grandfather made shit loads off of BoA stock.
 

Pops

Avatar of War Slayer
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4094936-dan-loeb-got-wrong

schrodingers-cat.png
 

Aychamo BanBan

<Banned>
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Does anyone do real estate investing? I do 401k, DBP, etc. But I'm interested in doing some residential real estate. I live in Louisiana so we don't have the terrible California residential laws. I'm thinking of like buying a $60,000-$100,000 house to test the market on. My goal would be to at least break even monthly (i.e., if I rent it out and all my costs are covered, I'm happy.) I'm thinking of it in terms of having someone else pay for a bunch of houses for me that hopefully will appreciate in value, that I could sell in 15-20 years. It'd be nice to make a couple of extra hundred dollar per month per property to at least set aside and pay for catastrophic things (roof, A/C, etc.) I would use a property management company too, so there goes 10%.

Anyone doing this?
 

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
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if you go back through this thread we have talked about this a few times, there a few who own residential investment property. I try to keep about 50% of my investments in real estate but only do commercial and industrial, but buying houses can be a way to invest but really need to do some homework and multi tenant buildings are usually the better investment. Residential is less capital intensive maybe as low as $20,000 to start, don't over leverage, buy good insurance, put some sweat equity into a property, be selective with your tenants.

Make sure you go through the numbers realistically before making a decision, we can probably help with that if you get that far. I would also assume at least a 5% maintenance reserve (more for older homes). Be careful with variable rate loans if borrowing as rates are likely to steadily climb higher for awhile.
 

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
39,410
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It's definitely tempting. I just don't have the balls to deal with being a landlord.

I wish I did though. I feel like real estate is a better way to make income over equities.
 

TomServo

<Bronze Donator>
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So, I'm going to be totally new to investing and zero knowledge or understanding. Wife and I will probably have a starting amount of cash of around 50k to start with. Can you gentlemen recommend some resources for educating ourselves? thanks in advance.
 

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
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So, I'm going to be totally new to investing and zero knowledge or understanding. Wife and I will probably have a starting amount of cash of around 50k to start with. Can you gentlemen recommend some resources for educating ourselves? thanks in advance.

Recommend doing some reading at:

Investing - Help with Personal Investments - Bogleheads.org

For companies to work with I would strongly recommend:
Vanguard: Helping you reach your investing goals | Vanguard
Fidelity International Usage Agreement

Look up Jack Bogle on amazon

For understanding investment lingo investopedia does a decent job.

Your biggest enemy will be your fear of losing and impatience, both must be conquered then it really just becomes a matter of staying the course.
 
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Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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I also really like the JLCollins stock series. He does a good job explaining why you shouldn't market time or panic, and why Vanguard is worthwhile (and really, Fidelity at this point as they're the only other place competitive on fees).

Stock Series
 

Rod-138

Trakanon Raider
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'Advisors are drawn not to the best investments but to those that pay the highest commissions and management fees. Indeed, often they are compelled by their firms to sell these. Such investments are, by definition, expensive to buy and own.'


This is hilarious and literally the opposite of my firm's philosophy. No one worth a fuck actually thinks like this. I totally support people that have the time/desire to save some fee money and manage their own money, but while there are some boogeymen out there, most advisors nowadays understand the competitive environment and mix managed sectors with low cost indexes to give someone a nice mix for a low cost.
 

Rod-138

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Like, do you need someone to manage your Large cap sector? No, fill it with an index if you have the time horizon, but the difference between a well managed value bond/foreign growth segment and a shit tier one is substantial. So we mostly try to save people money unless we see value in spending it! Or the guys I work with at least!
 

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,457
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'Advisors are drawn not to the best investments but to those that pay the highest commissions and management fees. Indeed, often they are compelled by their firms to sell these. Such investments are, by definition, expensive to buy and own.'


This is hilarious and literally the opposite of my firm's philosophy. No one worth a fuck actually thinks like this. I totally support people that have the time/desire to save some fee money and manage their own money, but while there are some boogeymen out there, most advisors nowadays understand the competitive environment and mix managed sectors with low cost indexes to give someone a nice mix for a low cost.

There are plenty of Advisors that don't give a shit and want to maximize their own profits. It definitely has a predatory angle, but there is so much money to be made of people's general financial ignorance that it does indeed exist. However, there are Advisors which are bound by law to act in the best interest of the client and those are known as a Fiduciary.

Fiduciary

John Oliver did a great segment on this a while back.

 

Khane

Got something right about marriage
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'Advisors are drawn not to the best investments but to those that pay the highest commissions and management fees. Indeed, often they are compelled by their firms to sell these. Such investments are, by definition, expensive to buy and own.'


This is hilarious and literally the opposite of my firm's philosophy. No one worth a fuck actually thinks like this. I totally support people that have the time/desire to save some fee money and manage their own money, but while there are some boogeymen out there, most advisors nowadays understand the competitive environment and mix managed sectors with low cost indexes to give someone a nice mix for a low cost.

So in one breath you say you don't have the time/desire to manage you're own money. And in the next breath you say your super awesome investment firm just buys index funds for your portfolio? Clicking "buy" on VTI is too hard for you so you pay someone else to do it for you?
 

Cad

scientia potentia est
<Bronze Donator>
25,426
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'Advisors are drawn not to the best investments but to those that pay the highest commissions and management fees. Indeed, often they are compelled by their firms to sell these. Such investments are, by definition, expensive to buy and own.'


This is hilarious and literally the opposite of my firm's philosophy. No one worth a fuck actually thinks like this. I totally support people that have the time/desire to save some fee money and manage their own money, but while there are some boogeymen out there, most advisors nowadays understand the competitive environment and mix managed sectors with low cost indexes to give someone a nice mix for a low cost.

Places like First Command Financial Services are still in business you know.
 

Unidin

Molten Core Raider
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The value in the adviser isn't in how they pick funds for you. A robo-advisor can do the same thing and in many cases, the back end of your in person and robo-advisors are basically the same thing. The value in an adviser is someone to hold your hand so you don't panic when the market corrects. The average investor doesn't have the discipline to stay diversified in the right funds and re balance as needed.
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