Investing General Discussion

Flobee said:

Just my 2 cents on this, make sure its physical. If you're in a situation where gold is actually useful and all you have is an IOU then you're fucked. Plenty would prolly say that is paranoid though.

Click to expand...

Get the bars, baby. Whats the difference between a piece of paper currency and a piece of paper saying you own gold? Answer : none.

Everything looked good until europe woke up.

LachiusTZ said:

I get that. But with the GDP / unemployment, why arent we seeing ppl like our 2 pros moving heavily into things geared for a massive recession / depression?

Is it just "Dont fight the Fed"?

Click to expand...

I think the logic here is more like Sanrith said. The market rally is being driven by FAANG/Big tech who have shown that 20M+ unemployment do not really effect them. Despite the fact that you'd think 20M+ unemployed would be a massive blow to the economy.

Compounded by Mr. Powell blowing a trillion bucks in 30 days.

I'm staying in. I'll buy some more this week. But I am prepared if it plummets and I really hope it does.

Locnar said:

I'm already invested enough into physical, and yes everyone should be diversified and include physical/real assets. I think thats all anyone can do , diversify.

Click to expand...

Diversity is definitely good, but for me my property, truck, and collection of guns is enough physical assets. I just can't forsee a future where I have use for gold, so never bought any.

LachiusTZ said:

Anti American sentiment just killed TSLA in China.

Click to expand...

TSLA had a lot of bad news recently, so stonk probably end up for the week. The inflation question is incredibly complex. I don't think anyone has a grasp on what the future holds, but EURO zone appears to be further down the rabbit hole. There might be an indicator that comes early out of there, but the economies are so tied it won't be much. Inflation is more likely, but the threat of deflation should be taken seriously with lots of money taken out of the economy with more unemployed.

This my philosophy. Feel free to take it for what it's worth. At this point the average retail investor (us) needs to ask your self some serious questions. Do you feel our economy is destroyed and won't recover? If yes. Then buy guns, ammo, food, and gold. If you think the economy is hurt but will recover with the assistance of the full might of the Fed printing press then you have to ask more questions.

Is the fed printing press bad for our economy and country long term? Yeah, most likely. But define long term for yourself. In business, long term is more than 1 business cycle (more than a year). I would say that right now and until November we have a Fed and a WH that are going to do anything to recover the economy. Predicting beyond Nov is almost impossible.

So we have a six month window we can predict somewhat. Its accommodating. Our economy isn't dead. Its hurt. But not all sectors are hurt the same. Tech and Healthcare aren't going away anytime soon. Service/discretionary might not be so lucky.

What I am trying to say is that we don't know the end answer and trying to use the past doesn't work. Keynes said stagflation wasn't possible under his model. And then the 70's rolled around. He was wrong. Every expert and model is right... untilnits wrong. If you believe our society isn't going extinct then you need to be having your cash working for you. The question is where. Tech and Healthcare are pricey right now. Service is cheap. Financials are cheap right now.

I can only tell you what I am doing. Going long names I have full faith in being around 5 years from now. This includes govt contractors. MSFT, AAPL, UNH, V, ABBV, LMT, RTX, GD, XOM among others. I am also willing to make small bets with limited downside but homerun potential in tech and healthcare. I bought Jan '21 calls on VTIQ. It is doing a reverse merger with Nikola who makes over-the-road hydrogen fueled trucks. If it misses I lose small. If it hits I win big. The power of options.

I personally am not betting against the US economy and the Fed right now. If I'm wrong, well I already own a shotgun and lots of ammo. I like to hedge

Ps.. all of the above need to be understood within the confines that bad investments are still bad even in a good economy. The core of your portfolio needs to be quality. Blue chips and indexes (IVV/SPY, QQQ, SPYG etc)

I should have added. Things I would avoid with the core/bulk of a portfolio...
Debt holders - peeps like banks and Amex. Some banks have more diversity than others in their exposure. I am long JPM only because of their diverse portfolio in investment banking to offset their lending default exposure. If I wasn't long with them early on, I would probably pass on them today.
Service industry - theaters, cruises, airlines, hotels etc. You cant accurately model their risk of bankruptcy.
High div yield payers. With about a handful of exceptions I don't consider any dividend safe right now.
Everything else I will look for quality to be found on the cheap.

Ps.. the DOW 30 isn't a bad place to start looking. I am willing to own at least 20 of them and I do own at least 10.

I guess amazon is looking to buy AMC? Huh? Is this just more Chinese trickery?

Furry said:

I guess amazon is looking to buy AMC? Huh? Is this just more Chinese trickery?

Click to expand...

I tried finding a single reason for this rumor that benefits AMZN and can't find a one. Probably just a rumor to pump the stock. If you check out insider trading when the papers get filed you will probably find someone dump shares on the news.

And... we're green on all 3 indexes.

Sanrith Descartes said:

And... we're green on all 3 indexes.

Click to expand...

Blazin said:

If you are rooting for lower prices then it needs to fail right here at this level for a technical breakdown of a double top failure at 200 day ema.

View attachment 269455

Click to expand...

Yeah I already started buying back in with my remaining cash. Oh well. Made a ton of excellent buys. Very happy about it.