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Jysin

Jysin

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Still an "up" number. It's like saying "oh, you only added $14.8k on the credit card this month? I was expecting you to spend $25k!"

Savings down and credit up back to back to back months. Not a great snapshot of finances. Perhaps the homeowners are just in denial, as they are still sitting on piles of equity gained over the last two years?

Federal Reserve Board - Consumer Credit - G.19

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
Still an "up" number. It's like saying "oh, you only added $14.8k on the credit card this month? I was expecting you to spend $25k!"

Savings down and credit up back to back to back months. Not a great snapshot of finances. Perhaps the homeowners are just in denial, as they are still sitting on piles of equity gained over the last two years?
Click to expand...
Oh I agree, the spend is crazy. I was wondering who the fuck was estimating $25b
 
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Haus

Haus

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Quite the miss, eh?

Click to expand...

I have been a person who at one point in my life had a running balance of over $15k on cards. Now it's zeroed out every month. I just can't fathom this number going up this quickly, and like others I'm wondering just who the hell expected $25B and what models exactly led them to that?!?
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Jysin said:
Savings down and credit up back to back to back months. Not a great snapshot of finances. Perhaps the homeowners are just in denial, as they are still sitting on piles of equity gained over the last two years?

Federal Reserve Board - Consumer Credit - G.19

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
Click to expand...
loan v savings.jpg
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
More El-Erian shitting on JPow.

www.bloomberg.com

Powell’s Comments Unleash Unsettling Volatility

The reaction by stocks and bonds to his remarks is more than just noise. Undue tumult increases the risk of economic and market accidents.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
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"The market reactions included a yield spike at the front end of the bond market, with the two-year breaking 5% for the first time since 2007"

We need to go back to the old days of the Fed members not speaking to the press or giving speeches. These weekly speeches and shit and seriously bad for the market. Powell speaking to Congress is of course out of his control.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
"The market reactions included a yield spike at the front end of the bond market, with the two-year breaking 5% for the first time since 2007"

We need to go back to the old days of the Fed members not speaking to the press or giving speeches. These weekly speeches and shit and seriously bad for the market. Powell speaking to Congress is of course out of his control.
Click to expand...
Explain how that would be better? It would significantly increase volatility when the market did get info. We had this with greenspan not sure how it was better. The Fed doesn't need to be in the business of "surprising" markets with policy changes. They have done an excellent job of foreshadowing decisions allowing the market to adapt. Please elaborate on how them not doing that would be a good thing. Go into the meetings not knowing if it's a 50 basis pt hike or a cut or what? Now it would be more entertaining that's for sure and maybe that is the preference.

I don't like Bernake/Yellen/Powell monetary policy stances but Powell's communication prowess has been about as good as you could ever hope for. I listen and read everything they put out and in the last 30 yrs I can't recall a time their message has been so clear. You're old enough to remember the word salad we use to get that bloody useless.

What was the old quote? "If you understood me, I misspoke."
 
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Mist

Mist

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Sanrith Descartes said:
"The market reactions included a yield spike at the front end of the bond market, with the two-year breaking 5% for the first time since 2007"

We need to go back to the old days of the Fed members not speaking to the press or giving speeches. These weekly speeches and shit and seriously bad for the market. Powell speaking to Congress is of course out of his control.
Click to expand...
Why would that be better? Right now anyone that's paying attention can make free money buying puts every time the Fed is scheduled to speak.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Explain how that would be better? It would significantly increase volatility when the market did get info. We had this with greenspan not sure how it was better. The Fed doesn't need to be in the business of "surprising" markets with policy changes. They have done an excellent job of foreshadowing decisions allowing the market to adapt. Please elaborate on how them not doing that would be a good thing. Go into the meetings not knowing if it's a 50 basis pt hike or a cut or what? Now it would be more entertaining that's for sure and maybe that is the preference.

I don't like Bernake/Yellen/Powell monetary policy stances but Powell's communication prowess has been about as good as you could ever hope for. I listen and read everything they put out and in the last 30 yrs I can't recall a time their message has been so clear. You're old enough to remember the word salad we use to get that bloody useless.

What was the old quote? "If you understood me, I misspoke."
Click to expand...
Here is my take on this. Back then we didnt have HFT's using algos that were trading off every single word being spit out on the internet. I see it being the combination of Fed speakers out constantly with algos trading off their every word that is driving the insane volatility. Transparency is good. But how much of their speeches are them being transparent and how much is them trying to use it to intentionally sway markets (knowing the algos will feed off it).
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Mist said:
Why would that be better? Right now anyone that's paying attention can make free money buying puts every time the Fed is scheduled to speak.
Click to expand...
You answered your own question.

"Right now anyone that's paying attention can make free money buying puts every time the Fed is scheduled to speak."
 
Mist

Mist

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Sanrith Descartes said:
You answered your own question.

"Right now anyone that's paying attention can make free money buying puts every time the Fed is scheduled to speak."
Click to expand...
Just take your free money. The volatility is not insane. It's actually within a fairly narrow range, and almost totally predictable.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Here is my take on this. Back then we didnt have HFT's using algos that were trading off every single word being spit out on the internet. I see it being the combination of Fed speakers out constantly with algos trading off their every word that is driving the insane volatility. Transparency is good. But how much of their speeches are them being transparent and how much is them trying to use it to intentionally sway markets (knowing the algos will feed off it).
Click to expand...
I'm not on board the "algos change everything" platform. They create rapid intra day movements. I don't think algorithmic trading matters over any longer period. Do we get those rapid up/down movements at info releases, sure. Will we get flash crashes and boner bars? Sure we will, but that has no effect on the long term multiple the market applies to stocks. So it does create a somewhat different environment for day traders who have to learn to adapt to machine behavior, but it only makes Fed days different than they would otherwise be often for just a few minutes.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
I'm not on board the "algos change everything" platform. They create rapid intra day movements. I don't think algorithmic trading matters over any longer period. Do we get those rapid up/down movements at info releases, sure. Will we get flash crashes and boner bars? Sure we will, but that has no effect on the long term multiple the market applies to stocks. So it does create a somewhat different environment for day traders who have to learn to adapt to machine behavior, but it only makes Fed days different than they would otherwise be often for just a few minutes.
Click to expand...
Ill Allow It GIF
 
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