Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes said:

WeWork.

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Isnt the guy who runs softbank willing to go down with that titanic though?

Softbank sort of pulled the plug on this. Its getting into lawsuit time last I saw. I think once they stepped in and saw the books they got buyer's remorse. WeWork is a shit show of epic(or should I say Uber) proportion.

One thing to consider for those looking for entry points. During this mini-downturn, as index ETFs get sold off, the high quality companies in those indexes are also being sold off. Look for value in the blue chips taking a hit just because the index is being sold. MSFT under $170 (preferably $165) has about 12-15% upside. UNH under $275 has about 16% upside. CAT at under $100 has about 26% upside. FB under $200 has about 15% upside.

Temper your expectations. My opinion is getting 10-15% return overall this year should be a cause to celebrate. The days of 25%+ are probably behind us. Reminder, the avg annual return of the SP500 with dividend reinvestment is just under 10%.

I think a big drag is the goings on with China. The Senate is toying with an anti China bill and Trump is beating the drum on the trade deal. So we are back to China trade deal issues again.

Also, the DOW is sitting right at its 50 DMA if we break its support and close down below it things could be ugly. The SP500 has support at around 2721 or so as Blazin spoke about previously. We are either gonna bounce or plunge.

I had 5 limit orders this morning to buy. Missed on every one of them by less than 25 cents. Now market go up and me no get to buy. Me am sad panda.

Pharazon2 said:

Bottom line is that the government is going to do everything in its power to try to avoid a 2008 repeat.

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I'll disagree with your assessment, but this is a very complex issue. I could type out a long thing detailing all the issues that the fed created, but it essentially follows a path like this.

1. Gubmints tells home owners "12 months no pay woo"

2. Servicers go "Um, now we're obligated to buy those loans out of MBS because of rules since 2008 that were supposed to make them safer, we cant afford that!!"

3. Freddie Mac/Mae "Don't worry, we'll just sideline that little rule about buying bad loans out of MBS for a bit.

4. Anyone with a MBS "Uhh, I thought these were safe now, we're going to get paid on time, right?"

5. Mac/Mae "Don't worry, servicers 100% can pay their MBS payments even if a few people default. This is just a blip no problems"

6. Servicers "WE FUKKKIN BROKE ALREDY"

7. Mac/Mae "We'll back up services temporarily with our billions its cool"

8. Mac/mae 2 days later "HEALP CONGRESS"

<you are here>

And that's why the Fed now holds TRILLIONs in MBS, I believe its their majority holding. The banks are back to thinking they are worth less than they appear to be just like 2008, so those that have them are shoveling them onto the fed who is buying them at face value in an attempt to keep the perceived value up. Will it work? Who knows. But I think our current actions are moving us toward 2008, not away. Loosening MBS rules in particular is a concern.

Hey Blazin , explain something to me. Look at QQQ at 11:47am it shows a red candlestick with a volume of -404,232. How can stock volume be negative in a minute span (or any span for that matter). I can see a volume of zero for no shares moving but how can it be negative?

Blazin said:

I'm not showing that. I show 11:47am volume at 57,913 shares

edit... I went to nasdaq for the official block by block trades for that minute. Nothing odd in it so I'd chaulk it up to an error from your software/broker

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Maybe my active trader pro glitches? Black dot is on the time and volume to the left.

I closed the chart and reopened it and the glitch cleared.