Investing General Discussion

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Jysin

Jysin

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Jysin said:
SIVB shares converted to SIVBQ on the OTC market this morning. Those SIVB shares were trading at $39.5 when the news halt hit, now showing in the <$2 range this morning. Ouch. That's called headline risk while trying to scalp trade a bank that is swirling the bankruptcy drain. All in an instant, the shares you held are nearly worthless. Risk v reward death there.

Even those who were short have been stuck paying daily borrowing costs (even on weekends) until this resolved.
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And now its a penny stock in the 50c range.
 
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Aldarion

Aldarion

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Damn, that makes investing in dying banks sound almost as bad an idea as investing in natural gas
 
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Mist

Mist

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Jysin said:
And now its a penny stock in the 50c range.
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Thinking Reaction GIF by SpongeBob SquarePants
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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That Buffett-inspired OXY purchase up 9% already. Most likely its almost all from him buying so many fucking shares, lol.
 
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Fogel

Fogel

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I mean, Jim has to be aware of the meme and is just fucking with us by saying random shit now, right? Right guys?
 
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fris

fris

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Inflation is a measurement of this week/quarter over last year's week/quarter this time right? so shouldn't we eventually get to a normal (2-3%) inflation rate after about a year regardless? The gov't has slowed it's crazy printing and programs that injected money into circulation, spiked demand from covid is gone. no one expects prices to go back down ever. why shouldn't we expect normal inflation soon regardless what the fed does?
 
Gravel

Gravel

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fris said:
Inflation is a measurement of this week/quarter over last year's week/quarter this time right? so shouldn't we eventually get to a normal (2-3%) inflation rate after about a year regardless? The gov't has slowed it's crazy printing and programs that injected money into circulation, spiked demand from covid is gone. no one expects prices to go back down ever. why shouldn't we expect normal inflation soon regardless what the fed does?
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Because just like how inflation didn't immediately start when they started printing money, it'll take time to fall once they stop.

Consider that the ridiculous amount of printing (not the QE that started in 2008) happened in 2020, and we didn't get hit hardest by inflation until two years later...it could be a while.

And that's assuming it's a 1:1 correlation, which it's not.
 
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Furry

Furry

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fris said:
Inflation is a measurement of this week/quarter over last year's week/quarter this time right? so shouldn't we eventually get to a normal (2-3%) inflation rate after about a year regardless? The gov't has slowed it's crazy printing and programs that injected money into circulation, spiked demand from covid is gone. no one expects prices to go back down ever. why shouldn't we expect normal inflation soon regardless what the fed does?
Click to expand...

Short answer, no. The government has quite the pickle in solving this inflationary cycle. Raising interest rates is supposed to slow the economy down, but since they rates are still below inflation, the active economy as a whole has mostly just shrugged it off. On top of that, the banking sector has shown a lot of weakness to rates going up, which the fed is going to have to solve before we can up rates enough to slow inflation.

This is really the hubris of economic policies for the past 20 years, and especially the last 3, coming to bear. I really don't see any clean solution in the next few years as being likely. Best just to buckle in for a decade of nonsense. On the bright side, stocks are probably a reasonable place to weather inflation, so I wouldn't change my investing strategy over this.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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fris said:
Inflation is a measurement of this week/quarter over last year's week/quarter this time right? so shouldn't we eventually get to a normal (2-3%) inflation rate after about a year regardless? The gov't has slowed it's crazy printing and programs that injected money into circulation, spiked demand from covid is gone. no one expects prices to go back down ever. why shouldn't we expect normal inflation soon regardless what the fed does?
Click to expand...

Govt spending has dropped from the 2020 and 2021 level but we are still running at a rate well above pre pandemic when inflation was muted. Pre pandemic was around $4T we are still running north of $6T . Can we get to 2% inflation with a $6T fed budget? I'm not so sure we can, if they hold the budget steady for years and let the economy catch up bringing outlays back closer to 20% of GDP instead of 25% then inflation should adjust , but nobody is going to wait that long. So Fed not only has to fight its own previous printing it has to fight against a fiscal impulse that they can't control and is still going.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Furry said:
Short answer, no. The government has quite the pickle in solving this inflationary cycle. Raising interest rates is supposed to slow the economy down, but since they rates are still below inflation, the active economy as a whole has mostly just shrugged it off. On top of that, the banking sector has shown a lot of weakness to rates going up, which the fed is going to have to solve before we can up rates enough to slow inflation.

This is really the hubris of economic policies for the past 20 years, and especially the last 3, coming to bear. I really don't see any clean solution in the next few years as being likely. Best just to buckle in for a decade of nonsense. On the bright side, stocks are probably a reasonable place to weather inflation, so I wouldn't change my investing strategy over this.
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Small nitpick, but banks are hurt by the rate of change (speed of increases). In general higher rates are more favorable for banking not less. .

Agree with the second pt that stocks are one of the best hedges against inflation.
 
Mist

Mist

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Furry said:
Short answer, no. The government has quite the pickle in solving this inflationary cycle. Raising interest rates is supposed to slow the economy down, but since they rates are still below inflation, the active economy as a whole has mostly just shrugged it off. On top of that, the banking sector has shown a lot of weakness to rates going up, which the fed is going to have to solve before we can up rates enough to slow inflation.

This is really the hubris of economic policies for the past 20 years, and especially the last 3, coming to bear. I really don't see any clean solution in the next few years as being likely. Best just to buckle in for a decade of nonsense. On the bright side, stocks are probably a reasonable place to weather inflation, so I wouldn't change my investing strategy over this.
Click to expand...
A lot of it also suppliers using inflation as an excuse for clawing back 20 years of the Walmart Effect driving their margins to zero.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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SIVBQ is also up 400% from yesterday's lows. Heh

*edit*
Christ, its ripped another 30% in the ~40min since posting.
 
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Borzak

Borzak

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If silver keeps going up may have to sell some physical silver I own which isn't a lot. Read earlier a couple of places that sell physical silver have increased their minimum order to a couple hundre bucks.

1oz silver round was around $23 not long ago, now $30.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Maybe now is the time I finally sell all my pre-1965 quarters. Don't remember how many I have, but it was about $700 worth a few years ago.
 
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