Investing General Discussion

  • Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!



    Go here and give us your nominations!
    Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,491
120,660
So is the general idea to ride an index to the top and then diversify by investing in a lagging sector?

Inevitably there's a shift? Is it possible to forecast what's next?

Financials seem risky with the impending commercial real estate FUD, real estate seems to be in a stalemate with sellers sitting bc of rates and buyers not having anything affordable available, consumer defensive should already be baked in bc Ukraine right?, and I have no thoughts about healthcare, ultilities, or energy.
There is an investing strategy of rotating between sectors. As a sector ascends, you sell it and move the cash to underperforming sectors. Literally selling high and buy low. The challenge is picking the sectors and being right.
 
  • 1Solidarity
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 users

Haus

<Silver Donator>
12,704
49,334
Why not just name it eyePod?
Or maybe iEye , and sell it to naval officers and pirates.
Several of the financial YouTubers I watch have all been parroting the same message -- metals and miners will be big over the next decade. I've been buying shares of the gold and silver mining ETFs and related stocks.
If the world is going to achieve these solar and electric car goals the amount of silver and copper needed, among several other metals (rare earths and normal) is going to be insanely past anything we as a society are geared up to produce quickly enough. So, there's probably some merit in that strategy.
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users

Wingz

Being Poor Sucks.
13,046
40,320
It's a jungle out there... as dumb money buys..smart money sells..

AI Mania? Why would they be doing this if their 11B Quarter they were waiting for is just around the corner?


Other Stocks up 1000%!

 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,196
23,346
There is an investing strategy of rotating between sectors. As a sector ascends, you sell it and move the cash to underperforming sectors. Literally selling high and buy low. The challenge is picking the sectors and being right.
I did this with sector ETFs during the initial COVID recovery. Bought the ones that were the most oversold and rotated. It was fun, made a lot of money, got a bunch of false confidence that I was good at this :honkler:.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user

Rod-138

Trakanon Raider
1,183
966
That’s kind of what I aim to do at work. Sadly, even when you’re right about a sector you have the same problems you always do, mostly regarding timing the exits / entry.

Like right now, say you exit your 20% tech to the tune of dropping to 10%. You shift that 10% to energy expecting summer demand to kick up. Your logic was right, but you were early by 2 weeks and if you did Jack shit, you would have made significantly more. You didn’t calculate the pure retard strength of ‘this stock is up big, me buy’ That’s usually how it goes for me anyway.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,491
120,660
That’s kind of what I aim to do at work. Sadly, even when you’re right about a sector you have the same problems you always do, mostly regarding timing the exits / entry.

Like right now, say you exit your 20% tech to the tune of dropping to 10%. You shift that 10% to energy expecting summer demand to kick up. Your logic was right, but you were early by 2 weeks and if you did Jack shit, you would have made significantly more. You didn’t calculate the pure retard strength of ‘this stock is up big, me buy’ That’s usually how it goes for me anyway.
The trick that keeps me sane is to never focus on the min/max, hitting the exact entry and exit points. You will drive yourself nuts thinking about this. "Damn, I should have held it for 3 more percent". Set targets based on the best info you have and go with them. If your target is +20% and you sell it and it rides up another 5%, dont dwell on it. Always focus on what you made on a trade, not what you didn't make on a trade.

That being said, use it as a learning experience and see if your analysis was off or if the market just reacted irrationally. This game cant be min/maxxed unless you have Paul Pelosi info.
 
  • 4Like
Reactions: 3 users

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,491
120,660
Sold that other half of my AMZN position for a healthy gain. This kind of dovetails on to my previous post. If it keeps running up, shrug, I am happy with the gains I made off the stock this year. I will look for a re-entry at a pullback.

This is the lifetime AMZN chart. Look at the covid years when it went insane and exclude them. I see this running out of steam in the near term.

1687269425173.png
 
  • 4Tendies
Reactions: 3 users

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,457
4,345
More ugly macro news:

More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars​

  • Loans hit 125% of vehicle value in first quarter: TransUnion
  • The trend may foreshadow higher delinquencies, study finds

 
  • 3WTF
  • 2Like
  • 1Worf
Reactions: 6 users

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,491
120,660
More ugly macro news:

More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars​

  • Loans hit 125% of vehicle value in first quarter: TransUnion
  • The trend may foreshadow higher delinquencies, study finds

People bought/took leases during the covid supply chain fuckery and paid insane prices and are now upside down on that vehicle and rolling the difference into their trade.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
39,384
129,512
I'm always amazed at how over leveraged people are on cars. And most of all like you said, where they trade in their car for a fraction of its value to go in for an even more unaffordable car.

Even at our highest incomes, I can't imagine having a $500+ monthly car loan. Talk about pissing money away.
 
  • 4Like
  • 2Solidarity
Reactions: 5 users

Edaw

Parody
<Gold Donor>
13,271
87,993
More ugly macro news:

More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars​

  • Loans hit 125% of vehicle value in first quarter: TransUnion
  • The trend may foreshadow higher delinquencies, study finds

Was pay-walled but wanted to read it :https://archive.ph/UAQzU

Was no mention of it in the article, but I wonder how much of this has to do with term lengths increasing. Can't you get something ridiculous like a 10 year loan now?
 

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,457
4,345
Yea, there's been grumblings of the sub-prime auto loans pre-dating covid. Shit is just a lot worse now. There's a myriad of factors at play.
 
  • 4Like
Reactions: 3 users

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,457
4,345
It had news. I talked about it before. News today was Rivian adopting the Tesla charge standard and making an agreement to use their Supercharger network. This is on the back of both Ford and GM capitulating as well. You've basically turned Tesla into a service provider now for EV charging. Rivian is nothing in the scheme of things, but its just another name in what is likely to be an entire industry-wide adoption of Tesla charge standard and leasing their charge network.

It's a bullish tail-wind for sure, hence the big price run recently.

Still ripping after-hours here.
 
Last edited:
  • 1Like
  • 1Solidarity
Reactions: 1 users

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,196
23,346
Prediction: The restarting of student loan repayments in October is going to cause a very weak performance for holiday retail that is going to send signals that drive the economy into a quick, steep recession, mostly out of panic, by Q1 2024.
 
  • 1Launch Fail
Reactions: 1 user

Creslin

Trakanon Raider
2,503
1,151
Prediction: The restarting of student loan repayments in October is going to cause a very weak performance for holiday retail that is going to send signals that drive the economy into a quick, steep recession, mostly out of panic, by Q1 2024.
We are in a weird pattern right now where the low end of the economy is weakening pretty fast. Anecdotal stuff I hear out of contacts at some large low price retailers like TJX and traffic info from outlet centers is that its all down close to double digits from LY. Younger, poorer consumer is clearly hurting now vs a year ago. But everything I hear and see on the full price higher end side is alot stronger still, spending with the affluent crowd remains high.

Student loans aren't gonna help cause it will hit the younger side of that affluent crowd but I think it's unclear on if the lower end side will rebaseline and recover or if the fall offs will start to cause broad layoffs and weakness across all consumers. I honestly think it could go either way.
 

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,196
23,346
We are in a weird pattern right now where the low end of the economy is weakening pretty fast. Anecdotal stuff I hear out of contacts at some large low price retailers like TJX and traffic info from outlet centers is that its all down close to double digits from LY. Younger, poorer consumer is clearly hurting now vs a year ago. But everything I hear and see on the full price higher end side is alot stronger still, spending with the affluent crowd remains high.

Student loans aren't gonna help cause it will hit the younger side of that affluent crowd but I think it's unclear on if the lower end side will rebaseline and recover or if the fall offs will start to cause broad layoffs and weakness across all consumers. I honestly think it could go either way.
It really doesn't matter what's actually happening. It matters how the market and the media feel about what's happening. And if the holiday season shows even remotely bad signals, they will hype it up until everything crashes.