Hateyou
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Palum
what Suineg set it to
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Are there any good budgeting software tools with "financial planning" and modeling aspects that do it all with forecasting? Like I'm projected to have 2k unassigned next month because loan x is paid, best use is y into savings and z into investment to meet goals etc etc. Everything seems to be one or the other and I miss opportunities to maximize everything.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Took a look at ARM's financials.
It has a higher PE than NVDA does at NVDA's current insane run up. ARM is profitable which is nice, but the current pricing makes no sense considering their sales actually went doen in 2023 compared to 2022. Thats not growth. Its the opposite of growth.
It has a higher PE than NVDA does at NVDA's current insane run up. ARM is profitable which is nice, but the current pricing makes no sense considering their sales actually went doen in 2023 compared to 2022. Thats not growth. Its the opposite of growth.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Apple has had 3 consecutive quarters of declining revenues, yet look at that chart.
We are in bizarro world investing still.
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Wtf instacart has been around forever. And also sucks massive fucking dong
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Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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Sounds like a perfect opportunity to go public then, will be in good company
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Sanrith Descartes
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At least they are a profitable business already. Its actually a pretty decent model and has a solid customer base with elderly and mobility impaired clients. Also with lazy millennials.
Sanrith Descartes
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If you believe that rates are topped and inflation is under control then yes taking a 5 or 10 year bond position makes sense. If you don't then the shorter periods (3m, 6m,) are the way to go and just keep churning them on expiry.
Blazin
Creative Title
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how is 3-6 mo. worth the hassle over MM? I guess some tax savings if outside a shelter
Sanrith Descartes
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I dont see it as a hassle. Its almost the same trade ticket as a stock. It took me about 3 minutes of searching the availability books for minimums with the highest yield in my purchase price range earlier today.
And yes I could just use the cash position in Fidelity, but the competitive yield version is not FDIC insured.
Blazin
Creative Title
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a treasury isn't insured either. cash would let you take advantage of an opportunity in the market. holding a treasury for 3 to 6months could have you completely miss a 20% down move buy
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Sanrith Descartes
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Well, while yes the Treasury isn't insured, if the gubmint stops paying off it's Treasuries I'm pretty sure we are fucked no matter what and that cash isn't worth shit except for starting fires.
As to the other, you are 100% correct. Like everything else in my portfolio, I have allocated a weight to the Treasuries. It's a position like all the rest. And recall that historically equities and bonds are inverse, so a downturn of 20% most likely means my bonds would appreciate in value and I could sell them on the secondary market for profit and use the cash to buy in to the equity drop.
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Blazin
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Don't disagree, which is why the MM is fine, because its primarily govt paper. Nothing wrong with it just think at that short of duration the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Taking a risk on a longer time frame is where the risk/reward is at right now. That's how you know its a real investment because it's an unknown, where is inflation going...
I don't think there is anyway to know so many ways for this to play out. I think investors over all though are much more comfortable with under performing vs losing money. If somoene locks in 5% for 5yrs and stocks return 8% feels a lot better emotionally than stomaching 20-40% up/down equity moves.
If we are back at 2% in the near future a lot of people going to be kicking themselves for not having taken the opportunity
Sanrith Descartes
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We are on the same page, we just occasionally take a different path to get there. I have mixed my ultra short Treasury notes with Govt backed Farm bonds at just under 7%. Most likely they get called at some point when rates eventually move down, but its a pretty safe alternative for longer term return. I do keep watching the 5,10 and 20 treasuries but haven't been enticed enough to buy and lock in yet.
Part of the reason I am going with ultra-shorts is I honestly dont have a clear read yet are where the market is going. And to be honest, I dont think the market knows where its going yet either. My cash position is still over 30% as I continue to build an S&P index core holding. A 20% downturn tomorrow and I am plowing in the rest of my cash. until them I put the cash to work as I see opportunities.
ps.. The idea for the short notes I stole from Buffett. After reading what he is doing it made sense to me in the short term.
Sanrith Descartes
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