Investing General Discussion

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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I am still playing the bull game. I will not be unhappy long-term getting those SPLG puts at the SPY equivalent of $400 if it happens.
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This is why we only dabble in quality, so that when we fuck it up we always have the fallback of doing what is probably prudent in the first place (holding a broad index) This was key for me not because I can't apply my trade to shit stocks, it's what I needed for me to sufficiently quiet my emotions. I had to only trade things I'm actually comfortable owning. You have done a great job with that, best thing you have done that I have seen is sticking to profitable high quality names. We will forgive your SPAC period as a temporary illness. Hell it got me to buy matterport. I sure do like using their product though.
 
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Saw one of these things in the wild today.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
This is why we only dabble in quality, so that when we fuck it up we always have the fallback of doing what is probably prudent in the first place (holding a broad index) This was key for me not because I can't apply my trade to shit stocks, it's what I needed for me to sufficiently quiet my emotions. I had to only trade things I'm actually comfortable owning. You have done a great job with that, best thing you have done that I have seen is sticking to profitable high quality names. We will forgive your SPAC period as a temporary illness. Hell it got me to buy matterport. I sure do like using their product though.
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I do occasionally fall into the trap of "ohh, I hadn't noticed this stock/bond/other before and I like those numbers, let's buy some". Usually I come to my senses in a few days and sell it.
 
Rangoth

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Sold some treasuries and used the cash to write puts on SPLG at $47 strike, Nov expiry. 26 cent premium. This is the equivalent of the $400 strike on SPY. This would be a price going back to March.
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assuming you did this because you think there is low chance of being exercised, but I’d like to understand your goals better in a trade like this.

it’s really only .5% and over 2 months assuming you held to expiry. that’s really not that great. Is your goal here that it doesn’t drop much and you can close in 1-3 weeks for 50%+ gain as time value drops? or is this just your version of a “safe” play to make something more than 0 in a time of flux and not leaving cash idle?
 
Blazin

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I bought a little SPY this morning. This is more a just trying to play for a trade. Leash super short but we have a set up here to maybe make a run at gap
 
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Ranak

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Does anyone buy into the old adage "Sell Rosh Hashanah and buy Yom Kippur"? If that historical rule applies, we have bottomed or will bottom today, and we can write off the last few weeks as nothing more than seasonal weakness and market could rally from here. I have a lot on the sidelines right now, but bought into a few positions this morning (mostly AMD). I'm wrong a lot.
 
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Blazin

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So far there is nothing about this decline that out of the ordinary for what is a seasonally weak period.

What is more notable is the move in bonds. I expect a bounce here just not sure how much legs it has. My SPY buy this morning nicely green will probably go ahead and put a stop in now and just see how far we can go.

Weak AUg/Sept historically given way to strong Oct . At the risk of being repetitive don't let a few days of red overly influence your sentiment. Day at a time.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
So far there is nothing about this decline that out of the ordinary for what is a seasonally weak period.

What is more notable is the move in bonds. I expect a bounce here just not sure how much legs it has. My SPY buy this morning nicely green will probably go ahead and put a stop in now and just see how far we can go.

Weak AUg/Sept historically given way to strong Oct . At the risk of being repetitive don't let a few days of red overly influence your sentiment. Day at a time.
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You bothered that IWM move up is only half the green that S&P is?
 
Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
You bothered that IWM move up is only half the green that S&P is?
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Not "today" I'm not. This is an oversold bounce. As it ages then I'll look for the signs of it being sustainable. TLT and SPY have gaps and these girls like to have their gaps filled.

So yes I'm watching that, but no doesn't have much influence on current trade.

I just saw this post on twitter. Could maybe post to building thread but its a good example of a bad thinker


And this guy manages money. The thought exercise is to read that thread and think about why this individual is retarded. That doesn't mean that data isn't relevant but some humans are just pure trash at discerning that relevance or to consider important factors to be weighed. The goal with any education should be to get people to be better thinkers. This guy gets a D+
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Not "today" I'm not. This is an oversold bounce. As it ages then I'll look for the signs of it being sustainable. TLT and SPY have gaps and these girls like to have their gaps filled.

So yes I'm watching that, but no doesn't have much influence on current trade.

I just saw this post on twitter. Could maybe post to building thread but its a good example of a bad thinker


And this guy manages money. The thought exercise is to read that thread and think about why this individual is retarded. That doesn't mean that data isn't relevant but some humans are just pure trash as discerning that relevance or to consider important factors to be weighed. The goal with any education should be to get people to be better thinkers. This guy gets a D+
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Never forget... D's get degrees.
 
Gravel

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Supply and demand is hard bro. Give him a break.

It is also a good cross between this and the post you made in the housing thread about all the red tape and how much it added to your build.

Edit: And this. Anyway, to your point, this is why I say anyone can manage their own money. At least, anyone capable of having enough to invest (meaning you're not a retard like 70% of the population). Why pay an idiot to skim 1-2% off the top and give you results worse than the market?

 
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Blazin

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Housing market right now is creating a giant blind spot for a lot of people. Their failure to understand housing is causing a cascading list of false assumptions about what's occurring and why. This leaves them very poorly positioned to understand probabilistic outcomes. It's so rudimentary to look at charts and say "Housing Bubble" and then let that start shaping your view on a variety of things all based on a retard take on housing.
 
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Aldarion

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Gravel said:
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This is a good example of the lifestyle creep I bitch about from time to time. As a society our expectations for how a normal middle class person should expect to live have gone fucking bonkers during our lifetime.

People usually bitch at me for political reasons when I bring it up, but examples like you posted are hard to ignore.

Also, family sizes are smaller than they were 40 yrs ago so its an even bigger increase than the raw number suggests.
 
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Tmac

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Aldarion said:
This is a good example of the lifestyle creep I bitch about from time to time. As a society our expectations for how a normal middle class person should expect to live have gone fucking bonkers during our lifetime.

People usually bitch at me for political reasons when I bring it up, but examples like you posted are hard to ignore.

Also, family sizes are smaller than they were 40 yrs ago so its an even bigger increase than the raw number suggests.
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I have an anecdote on this from a recent friend group hang.

My friends have three kids and are thinking about a fourth. The wife was hosting a family event at their 3 bed 2 bath 1600 sq ft home. For some reason, while talking her grandmother, she said, "Yeah, we can't have any more kids bc our house is too small."

Her grandmother, who is generally sweet a demure, widened her eyes and snapped, "Don't you ever say that again! I was raised in a house half this size with six brothers and sisters. You and your husband have plenty of room!" She ended the story with, "So, yeah, I guess we're going to have more kids and keep living in the same house."

I personally live in a 3/2 1960's ranch that I love. I hate seeing subdivisions go up with huge monolithic homes. I always wonder who in the world wants to live in those giant things. Give me a brick one-story all day. Plus, your family is closer together and you actually see each other.
 
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Blazin

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Amod would probably prefer this in a different part of the forum, but not particularly interested in those areas so fuck amod


Stuff I think about as a framework. Mean that literally, all other ideas about govt/taxes, markets, culture, etc occur for me within the framework of generational cycles and secular trends

1929-1945 (16 yrs) Silent Gen - Consolidation
1946-1966 (20 yrs) Boomers - Expansion
1967-1981 (14 yrs) Gen X - Consolidation
1982-1999 (17 yrs) Millennials - Expansion
2000-2013 (13 yrs) Zoomers - Consolidation
2013-????

We give labels to population groups because they often represent shifts within society. Ways of doing things, ways of thinking. These shifts line up very well with economic cycles as not surprisingly they are reflections of us and our sentiment and circumstances. I could go further back it goes on and on. Tons of minds over the centuries have noticed these cycles, looking at how they play out as generational bubbles go through their life cycles. There are larger dynamics that occur that are larger in time frame then a single generation, reflecting the the maxim "Strong men create...."

Is the cycle about to end? Traditionally expansion cycles are normally noted by new household formation, and here we are in year 10 of a bull market and most of the industrialized world is in population decline. Will the rising up the third world into a higher standard of living offset this lack of growth? Are new home formations still viable to the masses? Are men and women forming families and rearing children? What happens if a boom cycle turns into a bust? Are technological advancement and subsequent productivity gains enough to offset the traditional just "MORE" of a growth cycle? Were the last few hundred years and cycles within them a product of the industrial revolution, and now new dynamics will render them obsolete?

The more I study these things the more the same thing keeps popping up, by late this decade early next we are fucked, and likely fucked in way that nobody living will fully appreciate until it's already upon us.
 
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