Investing General Discussion

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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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SPY options volume now. Lets see where they go later today.

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ShakyJake

ShakyJake

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So, something I just learned recently and explains the huge volume of 0DTE in SPY -- people have figured out the algorithms and can reliably predict price movements on a given day. SPY is much more difficult to manipulate, so traders focus on that.
 
T

Tirant

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How are y’all handling the bond situation? Currently I’m split in money markets and JPST. Have y’all started scaling into longer term yet? Jumping in full speed? Have a target in mind to jump in bigly? Sanrith mentioned 5% on TLT and that’s sort of my feel as well. Dimon talking about 7% rates was interesting this week but even if fed gets there doesn’t mean treasuries get that high which is why I like starting to swap in increments from short to long starting at 5.

While we’re on the subject, what’s everyone’s bond vehicle? BND hasn’t dropped as much as TLT which to me indicates less upside when/if rates go back down, but less price volatility due to shorter duration. Seems like you end up getting marginal increased yield currently but maybe more default risk in the underlying if there’s a Black Swan type event. Any other suggestions?
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Gravel said:
When we get bonds like the last period of serious inflation paying 17% for 30 years I might consider them.
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I would retire today if we hit that.

T Tirant Scaling into TLT. Doesn't have to be an all or nothing trade. Keep in mind, we could have another bank blow up and immediate yield reversal. At the pace of rate acceleration recently, we are getting more at risk of something "breaking" in the system.
 
Rangoth

Rangoth

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Gravel said:
When we get bonds like the last period of serious inflation paying 17% for 30 years I might consider them.
Click to expand...

I am probably exaggerating or just plain pessimistic, but I’m getting to that age where a 30 year anything is not looking appealing to me. I am 41 and My goal, on track thus far, is to retire by 50. the Thought of being 70 seems so unrealistic and foreign to me
 
Gravel

Gravel

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Rangoth said:
I am probably exaggerating or just plain pessimistic, but I’m getting to that age where a 30 year anything is not looking appealing to me. I am 41 and My goal, on track thus far, is to retire by 50. the Thought of being 70 seems so unrealistic and foreign to me
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I'm right there with you, and I imagine lots of us are too. The prospect that we've already lived probably more than half our lives is sobering.

Unless you somehow have a plan to retire with exactly $0 on the day you die though, you'll likely have something left over. What difference does it make if it's a bond or stock?
 
Haus

Haus

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Rangoth said:
I am probably exaggerating or just plain pessimistic, but I’m getting to that age where a 30 year anything is not looking appealing to me. I am 41 and My goal, on track thus far, is to retire by 50. the Thought of being 70 seems so unrealistic and foreign to me
Click to expand...

First, the average age for a male in the US is well over 70 these days, so plan for probably 80 or longer if you're keeping decent care of yourself.

And another nugget of wisdom from my hairy sack of experience.... So you plan on retiring at 50, what are you going to do with yourself for the 30 years after that? Not that I'm saying to grind away at some gig making money and being miserable until your mid 60's. But maybe reframe it as "Stop chasing money and have enough at 50, so I can find a career/life's work to actually do for 20-30 years after." Comes from watching my grandfather who worked the American Blue Collar life, retired at 65, but then quickly finished every project he had, fished all the fish he needed to, and once that was done I saw him fade.... FAST. And he was dead by 75. Personally, I am in a job where I'm making the best money of my life in my mid 50's. Plan on clocking another year or two in this, then shift to a more slow paced and consultative thing in the same career arena since I do really enjoy it (Cybersecurity) and do that making (and working) less, but still doing "something" until I really decide to fuck off proper in hopefully my early 70's
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I do love ETFs, but I feel buying individual bonds is not looked at enough by retail investors. I like vehicles like TLT, but if you are looking for long term ownership, individual bonds have no trade fees (depending on the broker) on the secondary market. Bonds tend to trade in increments of $1000 so it's affordable for most retail. ETFs have annual net fees nibbling on your profits.

For an ETF you are looking to analyze all the bond holdings and the roll-off. A sharp downturn in yields can cause your ETF to drop yield in a "relatively" short period of time.

"If" you like a long term Treasury paying 4.5%+ then consider just buying them outright instead of an ETF. The trade ticket is a little different than a stock, but not much. You just need to understand how to read the book and minimum purchase sizes.

If I see 10+ year Treasuries hit 5% I am a buyer. Between now and then I am on the fence and rolling short terms and farm bonds.
 
ShakyJake

ShakyJake

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Tirant said:
How are y’all handling the bond situation? Currently I’m split in money markets and JPST. Have y’all started scaling into longer term yet? Jumping in full speed? Have a target in mind to jump in bigly? Sanrith mentioned 5% on TLT and that’s sort of my feel as well. Dimon talking about 7% rates was interesting this week but even if fed gets there doesn’t mean treasuries get that high which is why I like starting to swap in increments from short to long starting at 5.

While we’re on the subject, what’s everyone’s bond vehicle? BND hasn’t dropped as much as TLT which to me indicates less upside when/if rates go back down, but less price volatility due to shorter duration. Seems like you end up getting marginal increased yield currently but maybe more default risk in the underlying if there’s a Black Swan type event. Any other suggestions?
Click to expand...
Heresy Financial just recently posted a video on this subject:

 
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