Investing General Discussion

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Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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I mean, it's not like it's doing great, either. Up half a percent after dropping 4% in the last month.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel Gravel I know you are on the FIRE train and recently sold for income. Have you done the math (looking backwards) and see if instead of waiting/putting off distributions while you watch the market, how it would look if you did pre-programmed distributions (like monthly) and then use Dec as a month to adjust?

Im curious if the numbers would show you better off not timing the market for cash outs, but just having it on autopilot and taking the highs and lows. You can have Dec as the month to either not take anything (you are above target cash-wise) or take a little extra (you are below target cash-wise).
 
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
40,088
132,312
Nope, this is only the second year. I had considered it though, especially after last year where it just progressively got lower. At the very least, doing quarterly. Maybe that's something I try next year.

I'm honestly still feeling the whole thing out.

At the same time, I probably overthink it. It's one of those things where seeing our portfolio number go below its initial value is super awful and makes it feel even worse to sell. But at the same time, my goal isn't to leave a 7 figure inheritance, either. We're about 16% off the high we had when we retired.

If we just get a few positive, normal, years in a row over the next few, I can probably stop thinking about it entirely. But I'm thinking we do get that recession next year (although generally the market gets its big drop prior to the recession and then recovers during it), and that makes me antsy.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
Nope, this is only the second year. I had considered it though, especially after last year where it just progressively got lower. At the very least, doing quarterly. Maybe that's something I try next year.

I'm honestly still feeling the whole thing out.

At the same time, I probably overthink it. It's one of those things where seeing our portfolio number go below its initial value is super awful and makes it feel even worse to sell. But at the same time, my goal isn't to leave a 7 figure inheritance, either. We're about 16% off the high we had when we retired.

If we just get a few positive, normal, years in a row over the next few, I can probably stop thinking about it entirely. But I'm thinking we do get that recession next year (although generally the market gets its big drop prior to the recession and then recovers during it), and that makes me antsy.
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I would just model it out and see how it comes out and then keep the model and plug in each year. The great thing about Excel is modeling is easy.

Based on your response, emotion is playing into it (for obvious reasons, you're retired). This is what made me think about automating the process and removing the emotion from the equation. Worse case, the model shows its not giving the best return and all you spent was time building the model.
 
Jysin

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,491
4,505
30 Oct 23:02 [NVDA] *Said to have $5.0B in China orders in limbo after the latest US chip curbs; Reportedly halted plans for rush deliveries of China orders - US financial press - Source TradeTheNews.com
 
Scoresby

Scoresby

Trakanon Raider
793
1,475
Sanrith Descartes said:
AMD sitting around some intermediate support but its still looks overpriced. Its calling to me like a stripper in the VIP.
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I actually bought in on some AMD a week or so ago for a long position. I think the AI chip market has a lot of demand with limited supply as Nvidia looks to be a year or so out on increasing their supply significantly and Intel is struggling to get off the ground in that market. Provided their AI solutions are functional I think you'll see really strong sales for AMD to fill that hole. After Nvidia sorts out their supply issue they'll obviouslly have to shit-or-get-off-the-pot, but with the hype behind Nvidia lately I think plenty of people will jump on AMD if it looks favorable for them in Q4 23/Q1 24.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
I'm all about this kind of play for the time being.

Also, looks like ALB was a dead cat bounce a few weeks back and you were right. Ah well.
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1698845845858.png


Down like another 40%. Its P/E is 3.8

In Awe What GIF
 
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