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Investing General Discussion
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Was going to respond to Sanrith the other day when he said I was making emotional decisions on when to sell, but I'm just going to quote you instead. These are the 3 points I've sold this year. Yeah, one of them was shit, but the trend was looking pretty bad.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I would take that chart and then do the calculation for sales quarterly and compare them. Think of it as quarter rebalancing that funds do. Would you be better off had you sold end of Q1, end of Q2 and end of Q3 and having split all the distributions you made into three equal quarterly sells.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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In your situation I would sell quarterly on set dates and ignore the action. Monthly would be even better just a little more hassle. If the market is in a bad period I would only adjust to the extent you can to take the least amount possible for that period. We are in a tough period for you to start this journey. I've said before but probably not ever going to stop noting that what I post here is because I trade an investment portfolio it is not at all a recommendation of what I feel people should be doing with LT investments. I have a LT retirement plan that receives regular investments into a broad index and is not traded. I don't even look at it but a few times a year. For your retirement plan that seems the best path to success, you need to auto pilot that shit as I'm not laying judgement on whatever sales or otherwise you've made but your emotions will be the number one obstacle to your long term success.
I can't guarantee that I would see a true oh shit moment for the market but I am willing to wager I have a better shot at it than the avg. I will only ever come here and say SELL a LT investment portfolio if I really super duper believe "this is it" . The world is going to undergo some pretty dramatic changes in the next few decades and we have to keep an open mind to how that may play out for risk assets.
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Sanrith Descartes
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SPY was so coiled from that sell down (8 red candles in the previous 9 sessions) that it blew through the 200 resistance, 20 resistance and 50 resistance like they weren't there. The question now is do we get some buyer exhaustion as we approach overhead resistance and the 100?
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Yes, fast money is over 438 to 460 range could be a more back and forth grind over 6-8 weeks. Next 200 pts on SPX/ES a lot harder than the last 200
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Sanrith Descartes
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The 100 is still on a negative trend. I want to see that correct and begin moving back upwards.
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I haven't been putting much into the indexes lately, so I've missed this correction as a buy opportunity. But only for indexes. I have some $ in TLT and a cost basis of $91.XX, so not too bad. I missed the bottom of ~83, but did buy some at 84, but I could have bought more. I just didn't want to go too overweight. As it is I think that's in a not terrible cost basis, but we'll see. There's also the dividend from TLT to consider which helps, and I'm considering it on a more long-term basis (1yr or more) type of play.
I also had a successful dividend play with EC. I bought some a few months back and waited for the dividend to pay for that period. It immediately dropped like 10% the next day. "Disaster!", I thought, since that was a fair bit more than the dividend I scalped (like $.84/share) off of the few weeks I had it. I then remembered
Blazin
's mantra about how the market is designed to impoverish the impatient. With that in mind (and a few prayers), it slowly returned to the level of where I got it, and I just sold it the other day for essentially even on the stock price + the dividend I got which went into SPAXX. The next dividend period for EC is in December, and I'm debating whether it's a good idea to try this again. It's definitely a risky play if you get the buy level wrong, but I think the overall oil market is on the way up (EC is the Colombian Oil company, and Colombia has massive oil/gas reserves) soooo, eh?
Other than that I followed
Sanrith Descartes
's idea about getting some MMM which is now green, and have been building up a pretty sizable JEPI position. It's down a couple % under my cost basis, but I'm not worried about it.
The big dump of a play was ALB. What a shitshow. Ah well, didn't have too much risked so eh, shit happens.
I also had a successful dividend play with EC. I bought some a few months back and waited for the dividend to pay for that period. It immediately dropped like 10% the next day. "Disaster!", I thought, since that was a fair bit more than the dividend I scalped (like $.84/share) off of the few weeks I had it. I then remembered
Blazin
's mantra about how the market is designed to impoverish the impatient. With that in mind (and a few prayers), it slowly returned to the level of where I got it, and I just sold it the other day for essentially even on the stock price + the dividend I got which went into SPAXX. The next dividend period for EC is in December, and I'm debating whether it's a good idea to try this again. It's definitely a risky play if you get the buy level wrong, but I think the overall oil market is on the way up (EC is the Colombian Oil company, and Colombia has massive oil/gas reserves) soooo, eh?Other than that I followed
Sanrith Descartes
's idea about getting some MMM which is now green, and have been building up a pretty sizable JEPI position. It's down a couple % under my cost basis, but I'm not worried about it.The big dump of a play was ALB. What a shitshow. Ah well, didn't have too much risked so eh, shit happens.
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I'll be dumping GOOG when it gets to green again or end of the year, whichever comes first. I don't see that company growing out of the bind they're in. I don't think they know how to build products anymore. If ads didn't print money they'd be dead already. Even if they build a revolutionary AI with the next version of Bard, other competitors will catch up quickly before Google ever figured out how to monetize it.
Sanrith Descartes
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At least you didnt dump ALB only to follow it by grabbing some MP like I did.
Sanrith Descartes
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They are a company, like AMZN, that the shareholders will benefit greatly from a split up of the company. They are fucking the shareholders by subsidizing all their loser ideas with the ad revenue. For AMZN is its AWS. GOOG needs to spin off the ad company and let the shitty little ideas fund themselves. They wont ever do it voluntarily and the shareholders cant force it because of the share structure, but hopefully the gubmint forces a breakup via anti-trust.
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I didn't cut bait nearly soon enough though, so eh.At least you didnt dump ALB only to follow it by grabbing some MP like I did.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Izo
Tranny Chaser
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Sanrith Descartes
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So as it gets towards the end of the year, it's a good time to think about whether you can benefit from a backdoor Roth conversion. Few things in life are better than fucking the gubmint out of money.
edit: unless someone asks, I will assume everyone is familiar with this wonderous loophole to wealth building.
edit: unless someone asks, I will assume everyone is familiar with this wonderous loophole to wealth building.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Captain Suave
Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
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Note that the tax implications get muddy if you have existing, funded, traditional IRAs. Also, you may be exposed to future penalties if the IRS decides this is not legitimate and doesn't grandfather previous users.
Sanrith Descartes
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If you are over the income limit then yes, there some chance the IRS may one day decide to close the loophole.
The other use is to take money from an existing IRA/401k (from a previous employer perhaps) and roll it over to a Roth (paying the taxes if any). The idea being if you have an event that puts you in a low tax bracket for a given year, it might be beneficial to pay that low tax rate to Roth the funds now to make them tax free in retirement.
Changing jobs, being out of work for a period of time, having a down year if you own your own business, etc.
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