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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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FYI - I am away from a computer this week as I enjoy my last time off before tax season. Unless an alert hits my phone telling me certain stonks hit a price level I won't be doing much until next week.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
It's largest sector is consumer cyclical. You seeing strength there as a rotation in?
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I'm seeing a chance IJS sees multiple expansion. It's too popular of a trade so right now we need this decline to shake people out. We are just about to fill a big glaring gap. I figured we would but I didn't want to wait for it for first buy. A few bucks a share is not that big of a deal to me when I'm looking for +$20-30/share . I'll be adding down to around the $96 range, looking for about $250k total investment.
 
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Foler

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I see the phrase “you cannot predict future gains by past performance” thrown around a lot in the investing community at large. It makes sense to me on paper.

That being said at the same time I see people cite returns of the sp500 over 5-20 year timespans and compare them with international or x fund as an argument against international or whatever other fund.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding something but is that phrase a bit of a cliche cop out then?
 
Gravel

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The market has always gone up...until it doesn't.

It's basically a caveat saying that yes, it's been the trend for a very, very long time, but nothing is guaranteed.
 
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Fogel

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Also I'd say that phrase is more targeted at single stocks and smaller/specific ETFs and not meant for larger indexes like the S&P
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Foler said:
I see the phrase “you cannot predict future gains by past performance” thrown around a lot in the investing community at large. It makes sense to me on paper.

That being said at the same time I see people cite returns of the sp500 over 5-20 year timespans and compare them with international or x fund as an argument against international or whatever other fund.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding something but is that phrase a bit of a cliche cop out then?
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It's said to prevent hucksters from telling you "NKLA rose 600% last month" to get you to buy their shares.
 
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Foler

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So about mid 2023 I put my emergency fund into SPAXX based off discussion in this forum. I opened a CMA at fidelity and it’s been smooth sailing. Since then I’ve kept all my cash in SPAXX as it’s easy to initiate EFT to my checking account to pay monthly bills etc.

For kicks I’m reading up on thread history mentions of SPAXX. I didn’t realize the ER was so high at 42bps. I guess that’s better than having cash just sitting there? Is there any downside to keeping all cash to be used for monthly expenses and EF inside SPAXX? It seems like SPRXX has a slightly higher return but cannot be held as a core position in a fidelity account. Would allocating a larger amount of my EF to SPRXX and keeping more immediate need cash in SPAXX be advantageous?
 
Flobee

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I don't buy/sell stonks much but thought I'd share a move I made today as its relevant to what I'm most familiar with in this space (BTC). Have held GBTC shares since $13 and with the upcoming ETF announcements decided to de-risk my position a bit and sell a portion essentially covering my cost basis. I'm doing this specifically to hedge against Grayscale not getting approved for an ETF which would cause a massive hit to the price as the discount vs the underlying would skyrocket I imagine.

I do expect GBTC to get approved along with the others (IF they get approved) but with the past shenanigans with Barry Silbert, his removal from the board, and some other background stuff with Grayscale I'm not fully confident.

All ETFs are vastly inferior to holding actual BTC, but if its in your retirement account /shrug. I expect to be able to buy back in to an approved ETF at a similar pricepoint in the near future so not concerned about potentially missing out.
 
Blazin

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..deleting a few paragraphs about bitcoin, I can't even....

ETF approval will be interesting to watch
 
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Mist

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Blazin said:
..deleting a few paragraphs about bitcoin, I can't even....

ETF approval will be interesting to watch
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I also think bitcoin 'investing' is mostly stupid, and yet:

1704387008001.png
 
Flobee

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At the end of the day are we here to be right or to make money? I'm always down for a lively discussion as to whether BTC is legitimate (in the proper thread) but in the context here its returns are undeniable. Ones view on future returns is highly dependent on what you think is happening right now. IMO however further discussion on BTC itself (rather than GBTC or other ETF stuff) is better for the proper thread.
 
Mist

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Flobee said:
At the end of the day are we here to be right or to make money? I'm always down for a lively discussion as to whether BTC is legitimate (in the proper thread) but in the context here its returns are undeniable. Ones view on future returns is highly dependent on what you think is happening right now. IMO however further discussion on BTC itself (rather than GBTC or other ETF stuff) is better for the proper thread.
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i like money GIF
 
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Blazin

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If ETF is approved I think talking investing in it in this thread is fine. Talk about crypto and shitcoins in general can just take to other thread.

I do like to make money which is why bitcoin making 0% for three years is not a great look all during epic levels of money printing and inflation.
 
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Furry

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Blazin said:
If ETF is approved I think talking investing in it in this thread is fine. Talk about crypto and shitcoins in general can just take to other thread.

I do like to make money which is why bitcoin making 0% for three years is not a great look all during epic levels of money printing and inflation.
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What I don't like about crypto is it's a massive energy burn as far as btc goes. That means it has a target on its back for when the psycho liberals go rabid.

Plus I wouldn't be surprised if the SEC shitcans every application. In recent term, dems have been far more hostile to btc than repubs. Just a fact of life that you can't ignore when dealing with gov. And TBH, they wouldn't be terribly wrong to do so either. Coins are still very much the wild west.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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The issue I see with crypto ETFs is similar to what I see with Gold ETFs. The real advantage to them is owning the instrument. Owning shares of an ETF that owns BTC does Jack shit when the gubmint steps in with a piece of paper and tells Blackrock/JPM they are "allowed" to take it. If you have the coins in storage or the gold bars in your safe you at least have some protection. Fuck shares of coins.

And of course the whole fraud thing.
 
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Tmac

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Sanrith Descartes said:
The issue I see with crypto ETFs is similar to what I see with Gold ETFs. The real advantage to them is owning the instrument. Owning shares of an ETF that owns BTC does Jack shit when the gubmint steps in with a piece of paper and tells Blackrock/JPM they are "allowed" to take it. If you have the coins in storage or the gold bars in your safe you at least have some protection. Fuck shares of coins.

And of course the whole fraud thing.
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FTX is now telling their shareholders they're going to get bought out of their "shares" of their "coins".

So, yeah, self custody is the only thing that makes sense with crypto, unless you're considering far more complicated circumstances where you're limited on what you can invest in.
 
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Flobee

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Blazin said:
If ETF is approved I think talking investing in it in this thread is fine. Talk about crypto and shitcoins in general can just take to other thread.

I do like to make money which is why bitcoin making 0% for three years is not a great look all during epic levels of money printing and inflation.
Click to expand...
If you purchased at the peak, yea you didn't do well for the past 3 years. If you understand Bitcoin halving cycle though you're not likely to be in that situation, and if you are you'd understand that you'll likely be in the green in the next 12-18 months. There is no 4 year period that you can buy Bitcoin and be in the red up to this point. We'll see if that trend continues.

Sanrith Descartes said:
The issue I see with crypto ETFs is similar to what I see with Gold ETFs. The real advantage to them is owning the instrument. Owning shares of an ETF that owns BTC does Jack shit when the gubmint steps in with a piece of paper and tells Blackrock/JPM they are "allowed" to take it. If you have the coins in storage or the gold bars in your safe you at least have some protection. Fuck shares of coins.

And of course the whole fraud thing.
Click to expand...

Agreed regarding ETFs. Owning the ETF is not owning Bitcoin/Gold it is owning an IOU that is generally unredeemable for anything but USD (no pleb gets in-kind redemptions). The difference between Gold and Bitcoin in that regard is that with Bitcoin you can hold the underlying with minimal cost (vs the difficulty of holding and securing Gold). I fully expect ETF holdings to get 6102'd if Bitcoin does what I think its going to do.

RE: fraud, the simple fact is 99.9%+ of fraud takes place on USD rails, often sanctioned by our government. Bitcoin is not controlled so its going to be used for whatever the bearer wants to use it for, including fraud. Same idea as Gold really, but infinitely superior in usability and transport.
 
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Foler

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Flobee said:
At the end of the day are we here to be right or to make money? I'm always down for a lively discussion as to whether BTC is legitimate (in the proper thread) but in the context here its returns are undeniable. Ones view on future returns is highly dependent on what you think is happening right now. IMO however further discussion on BTC itself (rather than GBTC or other ETF stuff) is better for the proper thread.
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Wouldn’t being right usually mean making money? I guess dumb luck can make money on occasion but that’s the minority situation I’d imagine
 
Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

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Sanrith Descartes said:
The issue I see with crypto ETFs is similar to what I see with Gold ETFs. The real advantage to them is owning the instrument. Owning shares of an ETF that owns BTC does Jack shit when the gubmint steps in with a piece of paper and tells Blackrock/JPM they are "allowed" to take it. If you have the coins in storage or the gold bars in your safe you at least have some protection. Fuck shares of coins.

And of course the whole fraud thing.
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lol this is so true when I think about it. The illusion of owning gold via an ETF is nothing more than that, an illusion.
 
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