Investing General Discussion

Creslin

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With a bad jobs report though do the markets crash or rally on expectations of faster rate cuts?

My question for tomorrow is to sell or not to sell AMZN. It's like the last company I own individual stock in where I have not much confidence in the leadership long term.
 

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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I'm tempted to sell my MSFT temporarily. My cost basis is 296, and if it's going to head back to the 350 or lower level I think it might be a good opportunity to pick up some alpha.

Thoughts?
 

Sanrith Descartes

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I'm tempted to sell my MSFT temporarily. My cost basis is 296, and if it's going to head back to the 350 or lower level I think it might be a good opportunity to pick up some alpha.

Thoughts?
No one ever went broke taking profit off the table. You are up bigly. Take the money and run.
 
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Mist

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On the flipside, MSFT has an insanely solid position right now. Their customers are hostages and they've got a commanding position in AI.

They feel unassailable.
 
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Creslin

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The market feels very uncertain right now. How often have we entered a bear market only like 3 weeks after hitting a fresh bull market though? I feel like a 15+% drop in MSFT only happens if the broader market continues tanking. There was nothing in that earnings report that suggests it should trend so much worse than the broader market, it should trend better
 
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Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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The market feels very uncertain right now. How often have we entered a bear market only like 3 weeks after hitting a fresh bull market though? I feel like a 15+% drop in MSFT only happens if the broader market continues tanking. There was nothing in that earnings report that suggests it should trend so much worse than the broader market, it should trend better
Ya, this is in anticipation of a broader market drop, nothing to do with MSFT in particular.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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You never lose from selling, you just have additional gains missed. Even mighty MSFT (my favorite stock) pulls back now and again. You just need to have the patience to wait for a reentry. Shit AAPL is floating above the 200-DMA right now.

Lightning Lord Rule Lightning Lord Rule if you aren't sure either way, set a tight trailing stop on your position. Protects your gains while getting some more alpha if it shrugs off a down move and keeps charging.
 
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The_Black_Log Foler

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With a bad jobs report though do the markets crash or rally on expectations of faster rate cuts?

My question for tomorrow is to sell or not to sell AMZN. It's like the last company I own individual stock in where I have not much confidence in the leadership long term.
Amazon is a dead company. Retail makes no money and AWS at this point repackages open source projects and sells them to you as managed services. There is no innovation going on there. They missed AI. Now they’re trying to catch up with Q released at ReInvent but they’re too late to the party on that. AI coding assistant? Codewhisper is garbage.

Jassy is absolutely clueless and capitulating to institutional investors who are bleeding out the company’s best talent. You know they have an unregrettable attrition rate right? Stacked ranking that forces managers to fire someone even if their entire team are rockstars. Imagine spending 150-250k to spin up an engineer then have to fire them. Average software engineer lasts 1.5 years there. That makes 0 sense. It takes at best 6 months to make an engineer be a real contributor. One year they’re hitting their stride.

Amazon is a day 2 company now. Day 1 went out the door with bezos.

 

Mist

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and AWS at this point repackages open source projects and sells them to you as managed services.
So they've become IBM, the thing they set out to destroy.

Anyway, managed services is a good business because companies are really bad at managing their own shit.
 
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The_Black_Log Foler

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I'm tempted to sell my MSFT temporarily. My cost basis is 296, and if it's going to head back to the 350 or lower level I think it might be a good opportunity to pick up some alpha.

Thoughts?
All I can tell you is azure is a solid product. Not sure what percentage of their revenue/profit it makes up but they bring in the same revenue as aws while holding way less market share.

Take that how you will.
 

Palum

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Amazon is a dead company. Retail makes no money and AWS at this point repackages open source projects and sells them to you as managed services. There is no innovation going on there. They missed AI. Now they’re trying to catch up with Q released at ReInvent but they’re too late to the party on that. AI coding assistant? Codewhisper is garbage.

Jassy is absolutely clueless and capitulating to institutional investors who are bleeding out the company’s best talent. You know they have an unregrettable attrition rate right? Stacked ranking that forces managers to fire someone even if their entire team are rockstars. Imagine spending 150-250k to spin up an engineer then have to fire them. Average software engineer lasts 1.5 years there. That makes 0 sense. It takes at best 6 months to make an engineer be a real contributor. One year they’re hitting their stride.

Amazon is a day 2 company now. Day 1 went out the door with bezos.


I have to agree with this take overall. Amazon and Google are both in the stagnant leviathan phase, so it'll be interesting to see how or if they survive. Microsoft is something of an anomaly.
 

The_Black_Log Foler

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So they've become IBM, the thing they set out to destroy.

Anyway, managed services is a good business because companies are really bad at managing their own shit.
Pretty much yes.

Managed services are good when they’re managed well. The problem is the customer often doesn’t see the house on fire behind the scenes. The customer starts to see smoke after a few years when they’re so tightly coupled to a service that it hinders them due to service limitations and said service doesn’t have enough people to put out the fires. I’m fine with basic building block services like ec2, rds, ddb, s3 etc but you start getting into things like APIGW and fuck that id rather roll my own load balancing and everything from scratch or other basic AWS building block services.
 

Mist

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I have to agree with this take overall. Amazon and Google are both in the stagnant leviathan phase, so it'll be interesting to see how or if they survive. Microsoft is something of an anomaly.
Microsoft spent the entire Balmer years as a stagnant, shackled leviathan. They did this intentionally. They grew out of it.
 

Mist

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I’m fine with basic building block services like ec2, rds, ddb, s3 etc but you start getting into things like APIGW and fuck that id rather roll my own load balancing and everything from scratch or other basic AWS building block services.
And in either condition, they get to charge you exorbitant rent.

Landlording has always been a great business.
 

The_Black_Log Foler

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And in either condition, they get to charge you exorbitant rent.

Landlording has always been a great business.
Eh. Some of it makes sense on paper. Lots of companies are able to completely axe internal software teams for managed service alternatives. That makes sense but just be weary if it’s a one way door especially with your data. I will say companies should really keep their eyes on provider SLAs because they could be getting a bit of free service time. It adds up.
 

The_Black_Log Foler

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Microsoft spent the entire Balmer years as a stagnant, shackled leviathan. They did this intentionally. They grew out of it.
Amazon may do this too but it won’t be in the next decade by any means.
 
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Haus

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OK. Completely tangential question here, and not even relating to stocks but still involving "investments"

Is there ANY real rational reason for someone to ACTUALLY fall for the nonsense they're pandering to the olds to buy physical silver as an investment? I was looking at buying silver, but for my metalcasting hobby, so I was looking for sources of scrap sterling silver and such. Along the way I take a gander at the various people selling silver bullion, rounds, coins, etc... It's considered a "sale" to buy a 1 ounce silver coin for only $3.99 over the market silver price. Which the seller would only buy back for a penny UNDER market spot price. This would mean if you were treating this as an investment you'd have to see a 15% increase in the value of silver just to break even. Someone please explain to me what I'm missing in this equation?!?!?!?
 
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Edaw

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OK. Completely tangential question here, and not even relating to stocks but still involving "investments"

Is there ANY real rational reason for someone to ACTUALLY fall for the nonsense they're pandering to the olds to buy physical silver as an investment? I was looking at buying silver, but for my metalcasting hobby, so I was looking for sources of scrap sterling silver and such. Along the way I take a gander at the various people selling silver bullion, rounds, coins, etc... It's considered a "sale" to buy a 1 ounce silver coin for only $3.99 over the market silver price. Which the seller would only buy back for a penny UNDER market spot price. This would mean if you were treating this as an investment you'd have to see a 15% increase in the value of silver just to break even. Someone please explain to me what I'm missing in this equation?!?!?!?
It's boomer bitcoin.
 
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Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

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To reiterate, I don't see any problems with MSFT stock or the company. I think they're the best of the big 7 tech giants. Though a case could be made for NVDA these days. Fuck AAPL, I never understood their products' appeal. Overpriced garbage for millennial idiots.

I just think the market is heading down in the near future, and my big exposure to the overall market right now is MSFT and JEPI. I'm going to let JEPI ride since it just needs to sit there and make Dividends and hopefully not drop 10-20%. MSFT on the other hand is a keeper too, but selling now (or a tight stop as Sanrith suggested, great idea, not sure why I can't seem to remember the basics sometimes) and buying again later and picking up alpha is the play.


If it turns out I'm wrong and the market keeps going up from here... well, time to buy shares in Kleenex I guess.
 
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