Investing General Discussion

Gravel · Jun 21, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Daniel Kahneman (Nobel prize in Econ) studied somewhere about 50 years of trade data for Wallstreet traders. His research showed on average traders were actually marginally worse than a coin flip. Choosing random letters sound about as good a strategy as flipping a coin.

Not sure if it's from that study, but someone looked at mutual fund managers and found that their performance was somehow worse than would be expected by probability (i.e. you'd at least expect them to meet an average return, but they actually did worse than what would be expected across the board).

In fact, just about the only way mutual funds can look successful is because they drop underperforming funds all the time. So it's a constant rotation to give the illusion of returns.

Furry · Jun 21, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Daniel Kahneman (Nobel prize in Econ) studied somewhere about 50 years of trade data for Wallstreet traders. His research showed on average traders were actually marginally worse than a coin flip. Choosing random letters sound about as good a strategy as flipping a coin.

This is the main reason I don't worry too much about where my money in the market goes. More often up, sometimes down. Everyone who invests will have times that they lose, but if you lose sleep and sweat over it you're missing the point, you don't control the market today and just need to look at the long term.

That's the main reason I put such a focus on how much I put in and tax reduction. These are both 100% in your power, and both play a powerful role in influencing your investment outcomes.

fris · Jun 21, 2020

Mutual funds have to on average beat the market by a degree of their fees just to be even with the market

Indexes for life yo (yes I know they have fees too)

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 21, 2020

Gravel said:
Not sure if it's from that study, but someone looked at mutual fund managers and found that their performance was somehow worse than would be expected by probability (i.e. you'd at least expect them to meet an average return, but they actually did worse than what would be expected across the board).

In fact, just about the only way mutual funds can look successful is because they drop underperforming funds all the time. So it's a constant rotation to give the illusion of returns.

Yeah. But when you account for the taxes on all the sales and transaction fees it actually make the funds returns worse. One of the major overlooked data points on any fund is turnover %. I have seen some funds run 80% turnover a year. That shit just drives transaction fees and taxes which eats up the funds return. But I bet the fund manager makes money on the backend of those transactions.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 21, 2020

Gravel said:
Not sure if it's from that study, but someone looked at mutual fund managers and found that their performance was somehow worse than would be expected by probability (i.e. you'd at least expect them to meet an average return, but they actually did worse than what would be expected across the board).

In fact, just about the only way mutual funds can look successful is because they drop underperforming funds all the time. So it's a constant rotation to give the illusion of returns.

Found a link to an excerpt from the book. Ps.. the friend he mentions at the beginning, Richard Thaler, just recently won his own Nobel prize in Economics.

Daniel Kahneman: The Illusion of Stock-Picking Skill | The Acquirer's Multiple®

acquirersmultiple.com

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2020

SPAC symbol SHLL agreed to merge with Heliion a company that makes electric drive trains for class 8 over the road trucks. Unlike other companies, this company can and does modify existing chassis to use its electric drive train. Could be another VTIQ/NKLA or it could be vaporware. Trading around 16$ this morning. Merger supposed to close end of 3rd quarter. As always do your own due diligence. I took a position this morning.

Araysar · Jun 22, 2020

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

U.S. home-mortgage delinquencies climbed in May to the highest level since November 2011 as the pandemic’s toll on personal finances deepened.

The number of borrowers more than 30 days late swelled to 4.3 million, up 723,000 from the previous month, according to property information service Black Knight Inc. More than 8% of all U.S. mortgages were past due or in foreclosure.

Gravel · Jun 22, 2020

Araysar said:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

U.S. home-mortgage delinquencies climbed in May to the highest level since November 2011 as the pandemic’s toll on personal finances deepened.

The number of borrowers more than 30 days late swelled to 4.3 million, up 723,000 from the previous month, according to property information service Black Knight Inc. More than 8% of all U.S. mortgages were past due or in foreclosure.

Reminds me of one of the Zeihan talks he did where he compared how different countries count arrears. The US I think was 30 days. Places like Greece and Italy were like 180 or 270 before being considered late.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2020

Big tech being big tech and leading the way. Be aware that quarterly rebalances will be happening any day now. Dont be surprised to see a rotation off of big tech as the pensions rebalance and trim down their big tech holdings to meet thresholds.

Locnar · Jun 22, 2020

I'm waiting for the travel stocks to cycle through. I so wish I sold half my positions in them around June 9th. Even then they did not reach my "goals" to sell, but still its ok to hedge profits and get more traditional. I'm frankly getting kind of tired of watching all this shit and ready to go back to indexes.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2020

I closed out my put options this morning on DAL. I sold them for 1.19$ a share at the last peak and bought to close for 0.35 . The next spike over 32$ or so I will run it again.

SHLL (the SPAC I discussed this morning) has run up about 15% since the open on 18m shares volume. Let's see if this catches fire like NKLA and can hop on the TSLA/electric car momentum train.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2020

AAPL +2.62%
MSFT +2.78%
NVDA +2.87%
NFLX +3.16%

The experts keep saying big tech is over valued and big tech keeps making new highs. Investors trust the names they trust and these stocks have made them a boatload of money the last few years.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
SPAC symbol SHLL agreed to merge with Heliion a company that makes electric drive trains for class 8 over the road trucks. Unlike other companies, this company can and does modify existing chassis to use its electric drive train. Could be another VTIQ/NKLA or it could be vaporware. Trading around 16$ this morning. Merger supposed to close end of 3rd quarter. As always do your own due diligence. I took a position this morning.

Previous close $14.04
Today's close $18.29
Gain +30.27%

Up almost 3% more after the close.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2020

SPACs are like free money as soon as they announce they signed a reverse merger deal. God I love Robinhood traders. They do the pumping for me for free.

Screenshot_20200622-175449_Samsung Internet.jpg

Khane · Jun 22, 2020

These reverse mergers are how Chinese companies infect our markets as vaporware right?

Furry · Jun 23, 2020

Khane said:
These reverse mergers are how Chinese companies infect our markets as vaporware right?

These sort of financial maneuvers go through periods of failure and success. We were on a long stretch of failures, but it seems we've turned the cycle where they succeed. I took out a small option myself this with

Sanrith Descartes post, and I'll probably sell it soon. Electrical drive trains are a trivial part of engineering to an EV, and there is likely not much of a future to a company dealing exclusively in them. At least NKLA has a future if they somehow developed cutting edge energy storage, which is by far the technological bottleneck going into the future. Either way, with how far stocks are divorced from reality in the tech sector, I really am reluctant to predict much of any outcome.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2020

The one real advantage to reverse mergers and why I think they are flavor of the month is that the little guy can get in the ground floor. With IPOs the banks and select clients get in early and then on IPO day, there are no shares for sale near the IPO price for the normal investor. He overpays at the open and all it does it make the elite investors richer. Reverse mergers are there for the taking by all and the Robinhood crowd are taking advantage. Its sorta like socialism. Or actual fair play in a very rigged game.

Ps.. SHLL touching $20 in the pre-market.

Araysar · Jun 23, 2020

I bought 800 shares of FFHL this morning before the markets opened, $6.35 a share

Already up to $8.50

edit: $9.45

edit: 10.18

Edit: I sold at $9.00

Indyocracy · Jun 23, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
The one real advantage to reverse mergers and why I think they are flavor of the month is that the little guy can get in the ground floor. With IPOs the banks and select clients get in early and then on IPO day, there are no shares for sale near the IPO price for the normal investor. He overpays at the open and all it does it make the elite investors richer. Reverse mergers are there for the taking by all and the Robinhood crowd are taking advantage. Its sorta like socialism. Or actual fair play in a very rigged game.

Ps.. SHLL touching $20 in the pre-market.

I bought in at 19, seems to be mainly making money on robin hood people but I'll take it.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2020

Bobalicios said:
I bought in at 19, seems to be mainly making money on robin hood people but I'll take it.

Assuming it tracks like VTIQ/NKLA expect it to meander about in a range 17-ish to 22-ish for a month or two. Once we get within a month or two of the merger it should really grab some movement. This assumes it tracks the same.

Investing General Discussion

Mr. Poopybutthole

Email Loading Please Wait

Vyemm Raider

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Mr. Poopybutthole

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

Got something right about marriage

Email Loading Please Wait

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.

Stock Pals Participant

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.